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Saturday 4 January 2014

Weekend Football 2014 (January 4-5)

When I was growing up, I have to say that there was a special feeling that came with the Third Round of the FA Cup, although it is clear that the younger generation growing up will now see this as a secondary competition compared with the Premier League and the Champions League.

It is really the growth of the latter that has affected this competition more than the money involved in the Premier League in my opinion- I know a lot of clubs in the bottom half of the table would rather concentrate on the League than having a long Cup run, but the likes of Arsenal have made their disdain for this competition clear in recent years.

For Arsene Wenger, finishing in the top four and a place in the Champions League is a far bigger achievement than winning the FA Cup and I don't think this competition will recover the prestige it once enjoyed unless UEFA suddenly decided the Champions League was only for the Champions.

More of the bigger clubs would then give this competition a bit more respect and make fans 'want to win' the FA Cup- some fans still have the love affair with the competition, but for the majority it has become a luxury to have a long Cup run rather than a necessity.


We heard Paul Lambert all but admit that the FA Cup is a pain in the backside for managers in the top flight these days and that must have been a real disappointment for Aston Villa fans to hear, but I fear that Lambert was only hitting the nail on the head. This week we will see what managers think of the competition with the teams they send out on the field after a busy Christmas period as the Third Round is played over the weekend with five live matches for the neutrals to enjoy.


Blackburn Rovers v Manchester City Pick: The FA Cup has regularly been a tough competition to get a read on as it follows the League Cup route for a lot of managers. This week we heard Paul Lambert say that most would give up the chance for a Cup run in place of securing their Premier League status, but Manchester City and Manuel Pellegrini have a deep squad that should be capable of winning here even if they make changes.

One factor that may equal the teams up a little is the poor weather that is affecting the United Kingdom, although City showed they are capable of playing in bad conditions with a win at Swansea on New Year's Day.

Blackburn Rovers have played well at home for the most part, but they have rarely seen a team of the quality of Manchester City. The latter also crushed Leicester City in a League Cup game away from home and should prove to have a little too much for this Blackburn side.

I expect a decent Manchester City team, even with the changes they will make for bigger games ahead, and I think they can win this game with room to spare.


Bolton Wanderers v Blackpool Pick: For the second season in succession, Bolton Wanderers are playing catch up in their bid for promotion to the Premier League, but they have at least shown some signs of an upturn in form in recent weeks.

On the other hand, Blackpool made a fast start to the season, but have begun to drift away from the top six and will be entering this game on a terrible run of form. Blackpool have lost 6 of their last 7 games coming into this one, including the last 4 in a row away from home.

I have to be concerned with the fact that Bolton have only won twice at the Reebok Stadium all season, but both of those victories have come within the last five matches here and Bolton have been scoring goals. It is scoring goals that has been a big problem for Blackpool and I think a small interest in the home team is warranted.


Everton v Queens Park Rangers Pick: Out of these two teams, I would hazard a real guess at Queens Park Rangers making the vast changes to their usual starting line up compared with Everton and I think that will only aid the home team to move through to the Fourth Round.

I would have favoured Everton to win this game against a full-strength Rangers team, especially at Goodison Park where they have scored plenty of goals in recent weeks, so I do feel a little more confident in their chances with the belief that Harry Redknapp makes a host of changes.

Everton were comfortable winners over Queens Park Rangers here last season and I think they will win this one by a couple of goals and will back them to do so.


Newcastle United v Cardiff City Pick: There is every chance that there will be changes to both sides, some enforced like the Mathieu Debuchy suspension, but I think this game will mean a lot more to Newcastle United than it will for Cardiff City and home advantage should be critical to that end.

A new manager in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is a factor that could help Cardiff put in a bigger performance to impress him, while also snapping their poor away run from recent games, but it is still a big ask for them to come to this ground and force the win.

As much as Solskjaer is saying the right things about the approach to this game, there is no way Cardiff City will want a replay with big Premier League games ahead. I don't think Cardiff will roll over, but Newcastle United have a lot of attacking talent in their squad and their extra motivation may just spark the victory.

I am not a big fan of the price for a home win, but I do think Newcastle United will prove a little too good and come through with a narrow win and a place in the Fourth Round.


Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This hasn't been a competition that has Arsene Wenger's undivided attention in recent seasons and I won't be surprised if Arsenal play a team with a number of changes so they can focus on Premier League games ahead.

That may give Tottenham Hotspur a chance of causing a surprise in this one and winning a North London derby at the home of their rivals for the first time since 2010. I would expect the FA Cup would mean a lot to someone like Tim Sherwood who would have grown up watching this competition and I think his team will represent that.

I am not sure Spurs have enough to win here at the outset, although team news could change that opinion, but this is a fixture that has regularly produced goals in the past. The wet conditions may see more mistakes made and I think the 1-0 Arsenal win earlier this season was an exception to what has been a high-scoring game.

A replay won't necessarily be wanted by either manager which should translate to an attacking game and I expect both teams to have their chances. It isn't the most appealing price but backing at least 3 goals to be scored looks to be the call in this game.


Derby County v Chelsea Pick: Since Steve McClaren returned to Derby County, this time in the position of manager, there has been a pick up of form from the Rams who have moved up the League table and look set to be a major player when it comes to the automatic promotion positions in the Championship.

Despite a loss in their most recent game, there is no doubt in my mind that Derby are going to give Chelsea all they can handle in this game, especially with the television cameras heading to Pride Park.

The fact that they are playing a game on Friday night at Leicester City, potentially a vital one in the race for promotion, has to be a concern that McClaren rests key players that may be fatigued after a busy festive period. If he does, Chelsea will have an easier time in the office in a competition where Jose Mourinho will pick strong teams.

Mourinho loves the FA Cup so while I expect changes, I think he will also be respectful of what Derby are capable of and still play a strong team. Chelsea should prove to be too strong with the squad at their disposal, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Derby manage to get on the scoreboard themselves. Derby had scored in every home game since the end of August before the 0-1 loss to Wigan Athletic, and Chelsea are vulnerable at the back, so backing the away side to win a game in which both teams score could be the right call.


Liverpool v Oldham Athletic Pick: There seems to be no reason for Brendan Rodgers to play a weakened Liverpool side since this game was moved to a Sunday afternoon and with a week to go before they are next asked to play a Premier League game. The last thing Liverpool want is an extra game from a replay, but they will want a deep FA Cup run if possible so I expect them to come out and continue their recent dominating form at Anfield.

Liverpool have scored plenty of goals at home and I expect Luis Suarez to cause Oldham Athletic a lot of problems in this one and possibly boost his scoring statistics with at least a couple of goals.

It will be tough for Oldham Athletic to contain Liverpool, even with their decent away form in recent weeks. Unfortunately for the preparation of the players, they won't have played teams with the quality Liverpool have and I think they will do well to keep the score respectable.

Premier League defences have struggled to cope with Liverpool at Anfield and I don't think Oldham can do much better- they will do well to avoid a similar defeat to their 5-1 loss here a couple of years ago and I think Liverpool sweep the handicap.


Manchester United v Swansea Pick: This has become a much more important game for Manchester United after a poor first half of the season by the standards they have set over the last twenty years. David Moyes will be feeling a lot more pressure with another home loss and a run in the FA Cup will at least keep the fans on board.

Most fans do understand that Moyes needs time to shape the squad in the fashion he wishes, while the team that has been left over needs some work especially in the middle of the park.

It would only be fair to give Moyes more than one transfer window to get things right for Manchester United, although he could have done with a much more comfortable Third Round match than against a ball-playing Swansea team that will come to Old Trafford with nothing to lose.

While that will help them in some respects, it will also give Manchester United perhaps more room to work with when they do get forward, although they are missing some big pieces in Robin Van Persie and likely Wayne Rooney for this one. That heaps more pressure on Danny Welbeck to continue his recent goal-scoring form, but he should have some chances come his way.

United look very short in the market to win this game on current form, but I do think they find a way to get that done. However, it may make more sense backing United to win a close game than anything else, especially as 5 of their last 7 wins at Old Trafford have come by a single goal.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Bolton Wanderers @ 2.15 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Everton - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Arsenal-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Chelsea to Win @ 2.90 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Liverpool - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United Win by One Goal @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

January Update: 4-2, + 4.7 Units (10 Units Staked, + 47% Yield)

December Final19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/1482-79-3, + 15.89 Units (266 Units Staked, + 5.97% Yield)
Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

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