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Saturday 11 January 2014

Weekend Football Picks 2014 (January 11-13)

The last week has been all about the Cup competitions, but that hasn't provided David Moyes a respite at Manchester United with back to back defeats in the FA Cup and League Cup meaning United have lost three in a row for the first time in over ten years.

Losing to Swansea was a bitter blow for Manchester United as they face another season without an FA Cup run, but it has been highlighted by the struggles in the Premier League, while stories are emerging that the likes of Wayne Rooney, Nemanja Vidic and Patrice Evra may all soon be leaving the club.

David Moyes is clearly still receiving the backing of the players and only those fans that 'follow' the team by seeing the latest score on their mobile phone would be really shocked and surprised by some of the results this season. There was work to be done with the squad and I am not in the camp of United must be a good team because they won the League comfortably last season and so this is all David Moyes' fault.

There were plenty of times last season when United didn't exactly set the world alight with their performances, but still managed to earn the three points- numerous examples including the late goal to beat Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium despite losing a 0-2 lead, losing a 0-2 lead at Chelsea but winning when Branislav Ivanovic was sent off, coming from behind to beat Southampton 2-3 with two late goals and beating Aston Villa from 2-0 down.

Those points made all the difference in the title race and late goals have gone against the side this season. I didn't even mention the late goal to beat Newcastle United 4-3 and these are games off the top of my head so I am sure there are others I have missed. As I said, this time around United have conceded late against Southampton and Cardiff City to drop four points and the performances have finally been given the results that they have deserved.


I still believe Moyes should be given the chance to at least mould the squad to what he wants to do, particularly after that terrible summer window last year which has been magnified by the improvements that other teams have made to their own squads. It isn't the most fun time to be a United fan, but this is the time when we have to remain steadfast behind the team as all the ABU's come out of the woodwork to enjoy their most time for the first time in many years.


Hull City v Chelsea Pick: Steve Bruce has been round the block enough times to know that Hull City will base their survival campaign on their home form, but he is also aware that any points gained from games against the top sides are to be considered 'bonus' points to that goal. They have shown little fear when coming up against the top sides so far this season, especially at home where they have beaten Liverpool 3-1 and also led Manchester United 2-0 before losing 2-3.

It is unlikely that they will take a step back in this one as Chelsea visit town, even more so when considering the amount of goals the Blues have conceded away from home in recent Premier League games. Yes, they have back to back clean sheets on their travels in the top flight, but both Sunderland and Stoke City managed to score 3 against them last month so Bruce will surely use those performances to inspire his troops.

Hull will have to be careful as Chelsea have certainly found a little bit of form of late, but I do think the home side can cause problems through set pieces and with crosses into the box.

On the other hand, I have very little doubt that Chelsea can have some success against a defence that has been good against most teams they have played this season at home, but have not been as solid when it comes to the best teams. It is only a small sample, but 4 of their 6 home goals conceded in the League have come against Liverpool and Manchester United, while Chelsea have scored at least twice in their last 2 away games.

It was Manchester United's counter-attack and speed that caught Hull out when they met last month and those are qualities that Chelsea have in abundance. While I think the away side will likely win here, their odds are far too short to be considered and I feel backing this game to have at least 3 goals is the call at odds against.


Cardiff City v West Ham United Pick: This is the epitome of a relegation six pointer in the Premier League this weekend and the two teams will be coming in with a real difference in confidence.

While Cardiff City have the positives of a new manager in charge and won at Newcastle United in the FA Cup, West Ham United are off the back of a couple of real hammerings (pardon the pun) away from home and Sam Allardyce looks like a manager that may have lost the dressing room as well as the fans support.

The injuries are a real factor in what Allardyce has been able to do, but some of the defending has been atrocious at times, while another concern will be the timid way West Ham United have fallen apart. That does mean a Cardiff City opener in this game could see the away side crumble somewhat and that has to be a major worry for fans of the East London club.

However, Cardiff City will give West Ham some chances to get on the scoreboard in this one as they have been struggling defensively and I am not sure Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be able to fully implement his ideas so quickly. Cardiff will also be expected to get forward in this game and that could also leave them vulnerable at the back so this doesn't look an absolute shoo-in for the home side.

That is especially the case when you think they blew a 2-0 lead over Sunderland here in their last Premier League home game and instead I will focus for this game to follow suit and go over 2.5 goals.

4 of Cardiff's last 5 home games have seen at least 3 goals scored, while the last 6 West Ham away games have also seen at least that number reached. Both teams will want to push for the three points and I do think there will be chances for both so backing the goals at odds against looks the call.


Everton v Norwich City Pick: Despite the changes made to his starting eleven last weekend, Roberto Martinez saw his Everton side continue their recent strong form at home where they are scoring plenty of goals and that could be a big problem for Norwich City to overcome.

Everton have hit at least 3 goals here in 4 of their last 6 games at Goodison Park in all competitions and that won't ease the concerns of Norwich as they return to Merseyside where Liverpool scored 5 against them last month. Norwich do have a habit of springing a surprise from time to time, but they have struggled against the best teams in the Premier League and have conceded at least 4 goals in each of their last 4 visits to a club in the top seven in the table.

I expect Martinez will urge his side to get Norwich City on the back-foot immediately and I do think Everton will score goals. My biggest concern for the home side has to be the injuries in the defensive areas of the pitch, particularly at centre half, but Norwich haven't been scoring a lot of goals recently.

As long as Everton can continue their recent success of scoring goals at home, I think they will prove too strong for Norwich and win this game by a couple of goals.


Manchester United v Swansea Pick: What can you say about the last ten days of being a Manchester United supporter? Poor performances, a bit of bad luck and all the pressure is on David Moyes to get things turned around. Games are coming thick and fast at the moment, but the visit to Chelsea looms large and more questions as to whether United picked the right man to take over from Sir Alex Ferguson or whether that man is in the opposition dugout.

A fourth consecutive loss would be a huge crisis for Manchester United, especially as it would be the third in a row at Old Trafford, so I expect there to be a lot of pressure on the home team, especially in front of what has become a nervy home crowd.

It has been quiet at Old Trafford outside of the Stretford End Tier 2 for a few years, but fans in the other sections seemingly look forward to booing at times and their lack of noise infiltrates the performances on the pitch where the team also have begun to doubt themselves.

Returning the two top strikers at the club would at least give United a legitimate goal threat and offer more than a lot of huffing and puffing and barely blowing the door open. Creativity is a problem for United, while teams are now coming to Old Trafford with perhaps more expectation than they would have had in years.

Swansea have a win under their belts from six days ago and could once again expose a vulnerable defensive structure Manchester United have had in recent games. Only 1 clean sheet in their last 6 at Old Trafford highlights that and Swansea won't be afraid of giving it a right go on Saturday evening.

There is no doubt that United are untrustworthy at the moment and the short odds are a joke to be honest. I do think United will get things at least back on track if one, or both, of Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney return to the side, but it is unlikely to be straight-forward. It does feel the layers have made a mistake in under-estimating Swansea's chances to score here and both teams to score looks a decent option in the game.


Newcastle United v Manchester City Pick: I am guessing most Newcastle United fans would have wished this fixture had occurred at least three weeks ago as the side were in much stronger form back then than they are coming into this game. With 3 consecutive defeats and injuries beginning to pile up, it is a tough time for Newcastle United to face a team that has been as dominant as Manchester City have been in the last few weeks.

It was the away form that had been letting Manchester City down when it came to a Premier League title challenge, but they have picked up in recent games and are beginning to show the same goal-scoring form as they have at the Etihad Stadium. They have scored at least 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League, although their last visit to the North East was the 1-0 loss at Sunderland.

Newcastle United can also take some confidence from the fact they kept City goalless in their League Cup tie in regulation time and there is no doubt that Manchester City do look remarkably short to win this game as the layers are taking no chances with them.

However, as many goals as City have been scoring away from home, you can't ignore the fact that they have conceded 11 goals in their last 7 away games in all competitions and only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 13 games on their travels. That did come here in the League Cup win, but the likes of West Brom, Sunderland, Fulham, Leicester City and Blackburn Rovers have all scored against Manchester City in home games so it isn't a stretch to think Newcastle can do the same.

With the injuries and suspensions at the back, I don't think Newcastle can avoid defeat either, but I will back Manchester City to win a game in which both teams score at least once.


Stoke City v Liverpool Pick: As well as Liverpool have played this season, I don't think they have been as good on their travels as they have at Anfield and that makes their odds look very short at a tough venue like the Brittania Stadium

Liverpool have won 3 of their 10 away games in the Premier League this season and they have won just 1 of their last 7 away games in the League so I have no idea why so many would be comfortable backing them at short odds on to win this game.

They have looked more vulnerable defensively, although Liverpool are a side with goals in them thanks mainly to Luis Suarez who will prove to be a handful in this game. However, take out their strong performance at White Hart Lane and Liverpool have conceded at least 2 goals in 6 away games in the Premier League over their last 7 on their travels and that is an area that Stoke City could make hay.

And Stoke are no mugs at home with a point earned against Manchester City and a win over Chelsea, two of the top three teams in the League. Stoke are unbeaten in their last 7 home games in the Premier League including that win over Chelsea and also a draw with Everton so this game shouldn't be one that they should fear.

Stoke are also unbeaten in their last 5 home games in the Premier League against Liverpool, winning 3 in a row against them, although they have lost in the League Cup against them in that time. All in all, it makes it very strange to see Stoke City being offered almost at evens with a 1 goal head start which would return as a push if Liverpool sneak the win.

Personally, I think there is every chance that Stoke can pick up points in this game and I will back them to do so.

MY PICKS: Hull City-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Everton - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester United-Swansea Both to Score @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Stoke City + 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)

January Update7-9, - 1.65 Units (25 Units Staked, - 6.6% Yield)

December Final19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/1482-79-3, + 15.89 Units (266 Units Staked, + 5.97% Yield)
Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

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