Weekend Football Picks 2014 (February 1-3)

The transfer window has been closed ahead of these games and that means the managers have all rolled the dice as to achieving the goals that they have set out for themselves for the rest of the season.

So far, the window has been largely unappealing for most although the decision of Chelsea to sell Juan Mata to Manchester United saw them use the cash to fund a few more moves. With the way the transfer window has gone, both the bottom and the top of the Premier League look very interesting going into the final four months of the season, but the next couple of months will see things begin to clear up at both ends of the table. However, I've thought that was going to be the case for a couple of months now but inconsistencies throughout the League has kept things pretty tight.

All of the teams have a busy couple of months coming up with games coming thick and fast and this weekend is no different with the entire Premier League in action. Most of the new faces will be playing for their new clubs too so it can be a little difficult to get a total read on what to expect of teams going forward until the squads settle down a little.


I did notice that Manuel Pellegrini has distanced himself from the blame for Sergio Aguero's latest injury at Manchester City- I was wondering if Raymond Verheijen has anything to 'tweet' about that or whether his self-exposure is only limited to clubs that have won the European Cup before?

Verheijen has been highly critical of the methods used by David Moyes since last summer and was quick to blame the manager for injuries to Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie ever since he attracted some media attention from his initial comments. It just makes me laugh that someone who is supposedly such a pioneer in the world of training footballers that he has struggled to get another job in the last seven months and may have had something more constructive to offer than keeping his name out there by criticisms of Moyes.

As I said, I haven't heard too much about blaming Pellegrini for the second injury suffered by Aguero in the space of a few weeks, but I guess Verheijen can't attract enough attention by focusing on the Chilean at the moment.


Newcastle United v Sunderland Pick: These Tyne-Wear derbies have regularly been feisty affairs and I don't imagine this one will be any different and I also think Newcastle United look very short to win the game considering the likes of Yohan Cabaye and Loic Remy are not going to playing. Cabaye has moved on for good, while Remy is suspended, but both have been integral to some of the attacking play that Newcastle have generated even if the former wasn't missed so much against Norwich City.

In that game against Norwich, Newcastle could have won very easily on another day as chance after chance was squandered and they can't afford to be so generous in this one. Defensively, Newcastle always seem to give teams a chance here as shown by the fact they have conceded at least once in 7 straight games here in all competitions.

And that is the kind of vulnerability that a suddenly confident Sunderland side will look to exploit in this game after a number of successful results have pulled them out of the bottom three in the Premier League. Sunderland have shown a little more heart and belief in their matches the longer they have spent time with Gus Poyet and I think they have the belief of earning a result here, although the Uruguayan manager is unlikely to settle for a point until the game develops.

He is a manager that will look to put Newcastle on the back foot and that should open up chances for the home side in this one. However, Sunderland are unbeaten in their last 5 away games in the Premier League including coming from 2-0 down at Cardiff City to earn a point and thrashing Fulham 1-4 at Craven Cottage.

I do expect chances in this game at either end and a little more composure from Newcastle United should bring an opportunity for at least 3 goals to be scored in the match. However, the 1-1 has been a familiar scoreline in games between these two also so that scoreline is the biggest concern from the final result.


West Ham United v Swansea Pick: After winding up Jose Mourinho and coming away with a point from Stamford Bridge, West Ham United need to back up that result by picking up the three points from this game. With both Crystal Palace and Sunderland winning during the week, West Ham remain in the bottom three, but a win would see them move back out of that position ahead of the later games to be played this weekend.

West Ham have been struggling for form and they haven't won at Upton Park since the end of November, while a real concern for the home fans has to be the 12 goals conceded in the last four games here.

That has seen the Hammers lose 3 of their last 4 games at home, but the result at Chelsea showed some spirit while the return of Andy Carroll has given them more options up front. Facing a Swansea team that hasn't won any of their last 5 away games in the Premier League presents a fantastic opportunity for West Ham to end their own poor run of form, but this looks another game that could have a few goals shared by the teams.

Goals have been a problem for this Swansea team that has struggled in their second season under Michael Laudrup and with Michu on the sidelines, but they recorded an important win over Fulham during the week to steer clear of the relegation fight developing.

The game does have all the hallmarks of a 2-1 scoreline in either direction and I think the layers are under-estimating the chance for at least 3 goals to be scored in this one.


Fulham v Southampton Pick: After the results during the week, I think Rene Muelensteen and the entire Fulham squad will know the importance of winning their home games, particularly with visits to face both Manchester clubs coming up.

This is one of those games where Fulham may have targeted a victory, although Southampton have been in decent form of late and will not make it easy for them. With the way Southampton approach their football, they are always likely to create chances and cause problems for teams, especially if they try and play football against them too as Fulham are likely to do.

On paper, this has all the hallmarks of an entertaining game for the neutrals that may be at Craven Cottage on Saturday (it remains the only ground in the Premier League with a 'neutral' section). Games at Craven Cottage have seen plenty of goals in recent weeks with 7 of the last 8 games here ending with at least 3 goals scored, while Southampton have seen the over 2.5 goals come through in 4 of their last 5 away games.

Southampton haven't been as good defensively in recent weeks as they were at the beginning of the season, but they have also started scoring goals on their travels with more frequency and I am going to back at least 3 goals shared by these sides on Saturday.


Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Playing with ten men against a team as good as Manchester City is not likely to end well for too many teams in the Premier League, or European football for that matter, and it will be interesting to see how Tottenham Hotspur will respond to that heavy loss.

The actual size of the loss is not the bigger concern, but the 40 minutes playing with ten men means some players may be a little more fatigued ahead of this game than they would be usually.

Spurs did follow their last drubbing at the hands of Manchester City by winning 4 of their next 5 games in all competitions, but this is not likely to be an easy game for them with the way that Hull City have performed for much of the season.

However, they may not have a better chance to beat Hull City considering the lack of confidence that has seemingly hit the home team who have lost 4 straight Premier League games ahead of this game. That includes losses in 2 of their last 3 home games against the likes of Manchester United and Chelsea and there is little doubt that Tottenham have played better away from home than they have been at White Hart Lane.

Despite the loss to Manchester City, you have to respect the fact that Tottenham have won their last 5 away games in the Premier League and there are goals in the side. They haven't always looked so secure at the back under Tim Sherwood though and they have only 1 clean sheet in their last 8 away games in all competitions.

With that in mind, backing Tottenham Hotspur to win a game where both teams score has been the most profitable way to back Spurs in recent games away from home.


Stoke City v Manchester United Pick: Whether Manchester United finish in the top four this season will likely be determined by games like these as they look to build some momentum into a strong end to the season. With games against Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City to come in the next six weeks, Manchester United can't afford to drop too many silly points, but they will be buoyed having won at Stoke City just a few weeks ago in the League Cup.

However, it would be silly to under-estimate Stoke who beat Chelsea here and also taking a point off Manchester City, although any similar defending to how they played against Liverpool will surely result in another defeat.

The confidence has to be a little short in the home team after recent defeats and that is where a Manchester United team at almost full strength should be able to take advantage. The layers are taking no chances by offering United at short odds to win this game, especially when you consider the up and down performances we have seen all season.

Having Juan Mata and the returning Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney should give United enough of an edge to win though and it may make more sense backing the away side to score either two or three goals here.

That is being offered at odds against in this game and United have reached that target in 6 of their 11 away games in the Premier League this season. Add the fact that United have scored twice in 4 of their last 5 visits to the Brittania Stadium, including in the League Cup in December, and I think the 2.10 on offer that they score two or three goals is a pretty good price.


West Brom v Liverpool Pick: If someone wanted to ask me why I don't think Liverpool will finish in the top four this season, I would point to their away form as being the main reason for that, especially as they have Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City all to visit Anfield in their remaining 7 games at home.

Even with that in mind, a slight improvement in terms of consistency on their travels will give Liverpool a strong chance to finish in the top four and I think they could be facing West Brom at the right time.

Liverpool certainly have goals in the side and they could have a lot of success in this game if West Brom continue defending in the manner they did against Aston Villa during the week. West Brom have been better at home though and while they don't win many games, they have been tougher to beat in the Premier League in recent weeks here.

Without Nicolas Anelka and Stephane Sessegnon, there are fewer attacking options for the Baggies, but Liverpool have shown vulnerabilities on their travels and do concede goals. That is shown by the fact that Liverpool have 1 clean sheet in their last 10 away games in the Premier League, but I also think the away side have too much attacking potential in this one and will find a way to win the game in which both teams hit the net.


Arsenal v Crystal Palace Pick: There is some real concern from the Arsenal fans that the team let the last transfer window go without adding to the striking options as this season represents a great chance for them to end their trophy-less years with a Premier League title to boot.

Theo Walcott is out for the rest of the season which leaves Olivier Giroud as the only truly healthy centre forward and an injury to the Frenchman would mean Arsenal are incredibly short up front.

I don't think we will see the concerns in this London derby as Arsenal have based their recent success, especially at the Emirates Stadium, on their defensive performances which has seen Arsenal concede 1 goal in their last 10 home games in all competitions. They meet a Crystal Palace team that have only won 2 away games all season in the Premier League, but both of those have come in their last 6 on their travels, although the Eagles have lost every other game.

Tony Pulis has definitely made them a tougher team to beat since he arrived at Selhurst Park and they caused Manchester City all kinds of problems in a 1-0 loss at the Etihad Stadium, while they were a penalty kick from taking the lead at Tottenham Hotspur.

Pulis didn't have the best record at the Emirates Stadium with his Stoke City team as he saw his team beaten on all 5 visits to that part of North London. I expect a point would be seen as a bonus in Crystal Palace's bid for survival, but I also think Palace will not be allowed to roll over by Pulis even in a losing effort.

I'm not a big fan of the correct score market a lot of the time, but the 2-0 scoreline has been such a familiar one in Arsenal home games recently that it is hard to ignore. That is especially the case considering how tough Crystal Palace have played in recent weeks and I think that scoreline is worth a small interest in this game.

MY PICKS: Newcastle United-Sunderland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
West Ham United-Swansea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fulham-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Tottenham Hotspur to Win @ 3.90 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United 2-3 Goals Scored @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Liverpool to Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Arsenal to Win 2-0 @ 6.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 99-103-3, + 12.71 Units (328 Units Staked, + 3.88% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)