College Football Week 9 Picks 2014 (October 25)

To say it has been a disappointing College Football season for my picks is an understatement to this point and I just can't seem to get out of my own way with some weeks looking positive before late turnarounds.

That happened again in Week 8 which has proved to be yet another week with a negative for the picks, but I do also feel that I have been close to a turn in fortunes. The season has proved to be a tough one for me, but I am hopeful that a big week to spark things for me isn't too far away.


Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: I backed the Rutgers Scarlet Knights to keep it close against the Ohio State Buckeyes last week, but they couldn't even play Special Teams right and were blown out convincingly by one of the favourites in the Big Ten.

One big concern for Rutgers this week is going up against Ameer Abdullah considering their run Defense has been giving up 4.7 yards per carry and Nebraska could ride their Running Back to a big win.

The Cornhuskers crushed Northwestern in the second half in Week 8 and the pressure will be on Gary Nova to keep Rutgers in the game. Nova has missed, for the most part, the multiple Interception games he has come to be known for and he has to play efficient football again from Quarter Back. However, Nova could feel he needs to force things a little more with Nebraska being able to move the ball consistently and I think the Cornhuskers will find a way to cover three Touchdowns.


Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: Minnesota only just got through a game against Purdue last week, but they might just have overlooked that team and I expect them to be more focused on Saturday. The Golden Gophers should be able to run all over the Illinois Defense and that should set them up for their fourth win in a row in the series.

They have also won four in a row in Illinois and all but one of those has come by at least a Touchdown and I do like Minnesota to do that in Week 9.

The Fighting Illini can throw the ball to stay competitive, but Minnesota should control the clock and dictate the tempo of the game and come through by seven.


Texas Longhorns @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: So Kansas State won in Oklahoma and Oklahoma beat Texas on a neutral site so I am guessing most people will be picking the Wildcats to easily beat the Longhorns on Saturday?

Kansas State have beaten Texas three times in a row at home and the last two of those have been comfortable wins, but you can't deny that the Longhorns have been much more competitive lately. The stats also point to this being closer if looking at the games against the Sooners as Texas outgained them easily, while the Wildcats were outgained despite winning.

This game shouldn't produce a drop of intensity from Kansas State, but you can't deny they are in a different emotional place as a fairly big favourite after being a big underdog last week and Texas' Defense is certainly capable of making this a close game where taking the points is vital.


Florida Atlantic Owls @ Marshall Thundering Herd Pick: Rakeem Cato set a new record for 39 consecutive games with a Touchdown pass last weekend, but for a long time the Marshall Thundering Herd were in a surprisingly competitive game.

They are clearly the best team outside of the Power 5 Conferences in my opinion, although unlikely to be invited to have a place in the Play Offs, but Marshall are still pounding teams and just trying to run the table as effectively as possible. Last season the Thundering Herd only just escaped from a game against the Florida Atlantic Owls on the road and I think they will be far more focused for this game.

Marshall should be able to do what they like with the ball in the Offenses hands and they have been a covering machine through the season and even four Touchdowns to cover might not be enough for the Thundering Herd to be stopped.


Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: The Mississippi State Bulldogs may have appreciated the timing of the bye week as that should keep the team focused on the games ahead after going through a really tough run of games. The additional rest would be welcome, but an emotional let down may also be less of an issue with the players likely to be itching to get back to action after a successful opening to the season.

In the SEC West, one defeat could be critical for Mississippi State's chances of reaching the Play Off and so they have to remain focused on the Kentucky Wildcats who have been much better this season as a team.

Patrick Towles should be able to produce a bounce back game after the Wildcats were blown out by the LSU Tigers last week, especially against this Bulldogs Secondary that has given up over 300 yards per game through the air.

However, I can't help but think Kentucky may have found their level in their blow out at LSU and it might be tough for them in this one. Dak Prescott should be able to help Mississippi State move the chains effectively for much of the afternoon and I think their Defense can force a couple of turnovers that lead to a big win where the Bulldogs cover the number.


Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: Rivalry games can be very tough to get a feel of, although it does look like the Michigan State Spartans are playing at too high a level on both sides of the ball for the Michigan Wolverines to deal with.

However, the fact that this is a rivalry does concern me with what is a big spread at first glance, but I still like the Spartans because I don't see how the Wolverines will move the ball effectively against this Defense.

Connor Cook has to play a clean game at Quarter Back for the Michigan State Spartans though as any short fields will be tough for the Defense to deal with, but the Spartans should be able to move more consistently when they do have the ball.

Michigan State's Defense shut down Michigan last season and won this game by over three Touchdowns and the feeling is that they will come close to repeating that with the Defense playing as they are. Michigan have struggled Offensively and Devin Gardner is turning the ball over too much and I can see the Spartans earning extra possessions that will result in another big win in this rivalry and all comments about them being the 'little brother' once again haunting Michigan.


Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles Pick: Louisiana Tech haven't won a game on the road at Southern Mississippi since 1982, but they did blast them at home last season.

The Bulldogs have won their last two games and look to have the Offense that should have more consistent success through this game. The balance they will have to run and pass the ball should pose too many problems for the Southern Mississippi team to deal with although it could be competitive for a while as long as the Golden Eagles continue throwing the ball effectively.

Teams have hurt Southern Mississippi by establishing the run and I like Louisiana Tech to do that and that should eventually lead to a double digit win.


Arizona Wildcats @ Washington State Cougars Pick: The Arizona Wildcats haven't been that good against the spread this season, but they have a strong record at Washington State by winning their last 3 road games at the Cougars. This is also a legitimate revenge game for the Wildcats having lost at home to the Cougars as the favourite last season.

The Pac-12 title is still very much up for grabs for the Arizona Wildcats to keep them focused on this game and they have outgained every team they have played this season to suggest they have a worthy record and are perhaps unfortunate not to be unbeaten.

Arizona should be the more balanced Offense and the expected showers in Washington State may play into their favour as the Cougars have struggled to run the ball. If this becomes a game where it is tough to throw consistently, the Wildcats should be a much bigger favourite.


Mississippi Rebels @ LSU Tigers Pick: There are a few things that are concerning me for the unbeaten Mississippi Rebels coming into this game at the LSU Tigers- the first is that the game is being played at night in Death Valley where so many teams have struggled in the past.

Secondly, LSU are a much stronger home team than they are on the road and third is that Bo Wallace is yet to have a truly horrific game which has been something of a feature of his career.

However, Ole Miss have arguably the best Defense in the nation and they can use that unit to bamboozle a couple of Quarter Backs that don't have much experience. That unit can set up the Offense with good field position and Mississippi can play efficiently with the ball in their hands to win this game.

Mississippi State came to Death Valley and were leading big going into the Fourth Quarter before a furious comeback fell short for LSU and I think the Rebels will underline their potential to win the National Championship by securing a huge win on the road in this evening game.


South Carolina Gamecocks @ Auburn Tigers Pick: It does feel there is a marked difference between the teams in the SEC West and the SEC East and I do think Auburn are going to show that this week with a convincing win over the South Carolina Gamecocks.

The Gamecocks have struggled to defend the run all season and they are giving up 5.3 yards per carry which is an area that the Auburn Offense is likely to take full advantage of.

It is still a large amount of points for Auburn to be asked to cover against another SEC team, but they should have enough success shutting down the South Carolina Offense to overcome the number and win this by at least three Touchdowns. The Tigers Defense should keep South Carolina in third and long situations and force Dylan Thompson to make plays with his arms which is where the ball-hawking Secondary can set up the Auburn Offense in short field situations to pull away from the Gamecocks.

Auburn crushed the LSU Tigers here to improve to 7-3 against the spread as the home favourite under Gus Malzahn in their latest home game and I think they prove too strong for South Carolina and cover.


Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: This game looks a really tough one for the Tennessee Volunteers who were being physically manhandled by the Mississippi Rebels last week and now face an Alabama Defense that just secured the most sacks in a single game under Nick Saban.

With 18 sacks given up in three games and with a Quarter Back who is banged up to say the least, the Tennessee Volunteers could struggle to move the chains all day and the Alabama Defense may have another big game getting into the backfield. The Volunteers can't even rely on establishing a running game to ease the pressure on Justin Worley as their young Offensive Line has found it hard to open consistent holes and Alabama have been strong in this regard anyway.

You have to think Lane Kiffin is going to be rubbing his hands together leading the Alabama Crimson Tide in a stadium and State where he seems to be universally disliked.

His team opened big holes for TJ Yeldon last week and Tennessee have struggled against the best teams when defending the rush- Blake Sims also showed off his ability a week ago when running the ball and I think Alabama can have another big Offensive outing. Kiffin is unlikely to stop running up the score if he gets the chance and the Crimson Tide could definitely roll this weekend.

They have won 4 in a row in Tennessee and their last 3 wins here have come by more than 20 points each time. With the way this game should go, Alabama have every chance of surpassing a 20 point win again this season.


Ohio State Buckeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: There is little doubt that the Penn State Nittany Lions Defense have played very well this season and are likely to make it difficult for the Ohio State Buckeyes, but I think Penn State will struggle to move the ball consistently themselves.

James Franklin did an excellent job making Vanderbilt a really competitive team in the SEC and the Commodores were never overawed about playing schools that were supposedly 'superior' in the talent departed. That would worry me in this game as he could make Penn State play better than they have shown in recent weeks while coming off a bye.

In saying that, the team have scored just 19 points in their last two games and they have to find more Offense if they are to keep this competitive. As well as the Penn State Defense have played against the run, JT Barrett could provide more problems as a dual-threat Quarter Back, while he has thrown well enough to hurt the Secondary.

Penn State are in a revenge spot after being embarrassed by the Ohio State Buckeyes last season, but I do think they are not quite as talented. Coming off a bye makes them more competitive, but the Buckeyes are winning their last four games by an average of 33 points per game and I like them to win this by a bit more than a couple of Touchdowns.


USC Trojans @ Utah Utes Pick: The Utah Utes have not beaten the USC Trojans since they were both part of the same Conference and I think they will just fall short of breaking their duck against them this week.

The Utes might have won 3 of their last 4 games, but they have been outgained in all four of those games and I do think the USC Trojans have more talent on both sides of the ball.

Both teams have been strong against the number, but I can't see Utah continuously getting away with giving up more yards than their opponents while I also believe USC can have a lot of success throwing the ball in conditions where the temperature will suit the Trojans. USC have enjoyed being the underdog on the road this season and they can win another game in that position.


Arizona State Sun Devils @ Washington Huskies Pick: The Arizona State Sun Devils could have a returning Quarter Back this week and they have covered the spread in 8 games in a row against the Washington Huskies.

The biggest concern could be the fact that the Sun Devils are coming off some tough games and may overlook Washington, but the only comparable team that both have played as seen the Sun Devils outgain Stanford while the Huskies were comfortably handled by them in terms of yards.

Arizona State's Offense looks the more balance of the two taking to the field and I think they have plenty of momentum behind them to come to Washington and cover the Field Goal number that has been set.

MY PICKS: Nebraska Cornhuskers - 20.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Minnesota Golden Gophers - 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 10 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Marshall Thundering Herd - 28 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs - 14 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 17 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Arizona Wildcats - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers - 19.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 18 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
USC Trojans @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils - 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 8: 5-7, - 2.26 Units (12 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
Week 7: 3-8, - 5.31 Units (11 Units Staked, - 48.27% Yield)
Week 6: 2-7, - 5.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 57% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 1.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 12.56% Yield)
Week 4: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)
Week 3: 3-7-1, - 4.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 38% Yield)
Week 2: 5-6, - 1.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 10.72% Yield)
Week 1: 6-4, + 1.77 Units (10 Units Staked, + 11.7% Yield)

Season 2014: 34-49-1, - 16.84 Units (84 Units Staked, - 20.05% Yield)
Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)