Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2014 (October 9th)

There might be a number of players still looking to book their place at the World Tour Finals in London next month, but Wednesday was not the day for the majority of those as a number of surprise results hit the Shanghai tournament.

Marin Cilic was a victim earlier in the week, but he would have seen his chances remain fairly steady of reaching the Tour Finals for the first time as Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic all exited the tournament. Rafael Nadal was another big name that went out of the event, but all of this means only good things for the likes of Andy Murray, David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych who can build on the misfortune of others.

Murray and Ferrer will meet one another in the Third Round, but remain in a tough section of the draw with Novak Djokovic most likely the opponent in any potential Quarter Final so the big winner could be Berdych as long as he can avoid the big serving of Ivo Karlovic on Thursday.

There are still a couple of big tournaments for the players to get through before the final eight are set in London, but this has been a strange week already and who knows how it will look at the end of the tournament.


Andy Murray - 4.5 games v David Ferrer: If this match had been played a few months ago, this spread would have likely been at least a couple of games shorter, if not more, but recent form displayed by David Ferrer has changed all that. The Spaniard has not been at his best for some time and was very fortunate to come through the first match against Martin Klizan on Wednesday and now faces a player who has certainly picked up his game in recent weeks.

Andy Murray won't look on 2014 as a great season by some of the standards he has set for himself, but the two time Grand Slam Champion has begun to play better over the last couple of months as he makes a full recovery from his back injury. Losing to Novak Djokovic in Beijing last week and at the US Open is no disgrace for Murray, but David Ferrer is not playing up to the level of the World Number 1 and I can see Murray dictating enough of this match.

Unforced errors have been a big problem for Ferrer and I think he could do with the end of season break to try and get back to full health. I have heard there have been some niggles he has been carrying around and I do wonder if mentally he doesn't believe he can outlast opponents physically as he has done for many years.

The serve was always a bit of a weakness for Ferrer, but it is tougher for him when he is pushing for his shots rather than playing the waiting game on opponent's and I think that costs him against Murray.

A look at their matches in the past shows that rarely has either player won comfortably, but I think Ferrer may struggle to stay with Murray in this one and the latter can boost his chances of qualifying for the World Tour Finals with a win. That might be the killer blow for Ferrer once again playing in London as Murray comes through with a 63, 75 win.


Mikhail Youzhny v Juan Monaco: It has been something of a downturn for both of these veteran players on the Tour, especially Mikhail Youzhny who looks certain to end with a losing record on the season.

The match against Juan Monaco at least gives Youzhny a chance for something of a successful tournament, although it will be a tough battle against the Argentinian who had a strong week in Shenzhen a couple of weeks ago.

Monaco was the beneficiary of the Milos Raonic illness in the last Round, but he has had a decent three weeks in Asia, while Youzhny had been struggling for form for some time. However, Youzhny is the happier on the hard courts and I think that can aid him in a win in this Third Round match, while the two wins he has had this week should have given the Russian some confidence.

I like the way Monaco battles on the court, but I think his serve is the more vulnerable of the two players and that might be the key difference at the business end of sets, even if this ends up taking three sets to separate them. Youzhny might just have the slight edge on the court and with his ability to get to the net and shorten points and he might just ride that to the win.


Feliciano Lopez v John Isner: I was surprised with Feliciano Lopez and his ability to dig as deep within himself as he did in the win over Rafael Nadal in the last Round and some may feel he is ripe for the taking in this Third Round match against John Isner.

However, I am not convinced that is the case and I was surprised that Lopez had been set as the underdog in this Third Round match.

Lopez has a strong lefty serve that should give Isner some problems and he will use the slice return to at least give the big American some problems when it comes to generating power off the ground. In the last three matches between these players, Lopez has won the higher percentage of points against the serve and that could be all important if the match goes into tie-breakers as it looks a very high chance of doing.

Of course, it is all important when those points against serve are won, but Lopez might be able to ride his win over Nadal into another one here and move into the Quarter Final.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Roberto Bautista-Agut: These two players met for the first time at the US Open in what was a routine win for Roger Federer, but the 17 time Grand Slam Champion will have to play a lot better than he did in his win over Leonardo Mayer in the Second Round.

Federer had to save five match points before overcoming what will become the new Argentinian Number 1, the second most match points he has had to save in a winning performance in his career. He admitted he was fortunate, but Mayer has a big game that can cause problems and I don't believe Roberto Bautista-Agut can do the same.

As well as Bautista-Agut has played, he has a serve that isn't the biggest and giving Federer the chance to dictate points will put him in a tough position to try and win this match. He will have some chances against the Federer serve if the latter plays as he did on Wednesday, but that might have something to do with his absence from the Tour and I expect an improvement from Federer in that department.

The serve for Federer may be the key to determining whether he can cover this spread as I think he will have his own opportunities to break serve and I do think his overall game leads to another fairly routine win over Bautista-Agut.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-3, - 5.16 Units (8 Units Staked, - 64.5% Yield)