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Wednesday 1 October 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (October 1st)

Andy Murray dug deep within himself to beat Jerzy Janowicz in the First Round in Beijing as his bid for a top eight berth in the Race for London continued, while he would have been pleased to see the likes of Stan Wawrinka and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga join David Ferrer in exiting very early on.

There definitely feels like a couple of places will open up in the World Tour Finals in the next two weeks, but once the tournament in Shanghai is in the books, we should know much more about who will be taking those places.

Rafael Nadal looked in great nick to see off Richard Gasquet in his first match since Wimbledon and now looks certain to compete over the final month of the season. However, he looks like someone that could seriously make an impact at the business end of the tournaments he is scheduled to play at as he looked as good as he did earlier in the season and the last time he came off a long lay-off.


It was not so good a day as Monday for the picks as two out of three ended on the wrong side- I wish I had taken my concerns about Julien Benneteau a little more seriously as that is the one pick I am most disappointed in so far this week.

The Second Round in Beijing and Tokyo has been split over two days so there isn't as much tennis scheduled for Wednesday as there was on Tuesday, but I still have a few picks from those matches set to be played.


Benjamin Becker - 1.5 games v Tatsuma Ito: When you are Ranked outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings, it can be especially difficult to get your mind focused after a big win and that is where Tatsuma Ito finds himself following his surprise success against Stan Wawrinka.

Playing at home will inspire Ito, but that inspiration isn't enough on its own and he has to get himself ready to play Benjamin Becker without having the time to enjoy a win over a Grand Slam winner.

As I said, that can be tough to do for a lot of players when they aren't used to beating top 10 players, but it will be more difficult for Ito in my opinion and Becker is a solid enough opponent to take advantage if Ito is emotionally not in control.

Becker beat Ito in Cincinnati six weeks ago in a qualifier and I think he has the bigger serve that can see him come through this match too.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Victor Troicki: Victor Troicki has returned from his ban from the sport in some fine form, but this is arguably the toughest match he would have played since then. It will be tough for the Serb to back up his win in the First Round against a motivated Tomas Berdych who has gotten the better of their head to head matches.

Both players have impressive wins in the First Round which should have given them confidence, but I think Berdych is the more consistent player of the two and his extra power should be enough to once again make the difference.

There have been times this season that Berdych has served poorly and he can't afford that in this match, but he has dominated Troicki behind that weapon in the past and has generally proven too strong for him.

The extra motivation to try and finish in the top eight places in the Race for London should keep Berdych focused in a 63, 64 win.


Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Shuai Peng: After winning the title in Wuhan on Saturday and qualifying for the final tournament of the season, it can be questioned as to what Petra Kvitova is going to have left in the tank for this tournament.

I still believe a two time Grand Slam Champion is going to try and give it her all and she has a strong record against Shuai Peng which suggests Kvitova can power her way through to the Third Round.

The serve will be key for the Wimbledon Champion, but Kvitova can use that to set her up in the match to try and shorten her time spent on the court.

Backing up a title win isn't easy on the Tour that moves on very quickly, but Kvitova should be too good for Peng with a 63, 64 win likely.


Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: It was a poor tournament for Maria Sharapova last week in Wuhan when she suffered a surprise exit in the Third Round and I would likely take it another step. Since winning the French Open title, Maria Sharapova has failed to reach another Final and it could be said that the Russian, who absolutely disliked clay courts a few years ago, could consider that surface her favourite.

The hard courts seem to have exposed some of the fragility in the serve that Sharapova has displayed at times through 2014, especially with the breaks of serve harder to recover on the faster surfaces. She was beaten by Carla Suarez Navarro during the summer North American swing, but the Spaniard won't be overly dominating on her own serve and will give Sharapova the chances to break serve.

Suarez Navarro can play some clutch tennis under pressure and has enough movement to frustrate Sharapova if the latter is not on her game.

However, I still think Sharapova is good enough to get this done with a 75, 63 win and will back her to cover these games.

MY PICKS: Benjamin Becker - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (12 Units Staked, - 2.83% Yield)

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