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Wednesday 22 October 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (October 22nd)

It has been a pretty poor first couple of days for the tennis picks including the terrible Tuesday where all four picks went down the drain- it was one of those days when you couldn't even point to bad luck as all four picks were pretty terrible.

On Wednesday, the WTA Finals move to the second set of round robin matches, while the tournaments in Basel and Valencia both really get going. After the really poor Tuesday action, I am hoping that Wednesday proves to be a more productive day as some of the biggest names in the sport are all in action.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Any time a player comes through the qualifiers into the main draw, they have to be respected, especially when that player wins a match in the First Round too. Pierre-Hugues Herbert has had to battle hard to come through to this marquee match against Rafael Nadal, although he will need to hope that the latter is off his game somewhat for the shock result to have a chance of coming in.

Nadal was brutally efficient in dealing with Simone Bolelli in the First Round, although there remain some issues with his health that have yet to determine his participation in London for the Tour Finals. The Spaniard also admitted he was a little surprised with his performance in the First Round, but I still think Nadal should be far too good for a player ranked outside the top 100 and who spends the majority of his time on the Challenger Tour.

Of course a spread like this can be dangerous for Nadal who generally prefers serving second, while Herbert is someone that pushed Novak Djokovic fairly hard a year ago on an indoor court in Paris. However, Nadal won't give up any point and I think he will wear down his opponent in this Second Round match and come through with a 64, 63 win.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: The big problem at this time of the season is trying to work out the motivation of players with the end of the season fast approaching. I think Santiago Giraldo could be facing a problem in that regards as he has lost his last three matches and I think Roberto Bautista Agut is going to be a little too consistent for the Colombian.

As big as Giraldo can play at times, Bautista Agut has a decent enough defence to force him to try and hit closer and closer to the lines and eventually leading to the mistakes that the Spaniard will thrive upon.

One concern is that Bautista Agut had a long week in Moscow reaching the Final there on Sunday, but I also think this has been a career year for Bautista Agut and one that he would surely like to end on a high.

Eventually I look for Bautista Agut to just have a little too much for Giraldo which leads to a 64, 64 win.


Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Simona Halep: Both of these players won their first round robin match at the WTA Finals which has given them a great chance of reaching the Semi Finals and the winner will most likely have booked their place in the last four of the final tournament of the season.

Serena Williams battled deep within herself to see of Ana Ivanovic in her first match, while Simona Halep had a much 'easier' day in the office with a convincing win over Eugenie Bouchard that was very one sided.

As consistent as Halep has been, it will be very difficult for her to keep up with Williams who should be able to play first strike tennis which makes her so effective a player. Keeping Halep on the backfoot should allow Williams to dominate the match in terms of pace and eventually breaking down the Romanian who could potentially want to leave something in the tank for her final round robin match against Ana Ivanovic.

Williams has to serve better than she has since the US Open if she is to make this a match she can win with room to spare on the scoreboard, but her power should give her the edge. Keeping the unforced errors to a minimum should be achievable as I expect Williams to earn the short ball and that should be enough to see her come through with a 64, 63 win.


Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: With both players losing the first round robin matches, this is a must win match for Eugenie Bouchard and Ana Ivanovic and I do think we will see more out of the Canadian than we did a couple of days ago.

On that occasion, too many unforced errors from the Bouchard racquet made life very easy for Simona Halep as she fell behind very quickly in the first set and Bouchard made it clear that she realises she has to be more consistent when dealing with the competition in the WTA Finals.

Ana Ivanovic played Serena Williams very tough in her opening loss, but also went down in straight sets and her own inconsistencies make her a vulnerable favourite. Bouchard has won their two previous matches including coming from a set behind to beat Ivanovic at the Australian Open earlier this season and I think she can make this a competitive match.

The number of games given to Bouchard suggests that winning a set will be enough to help her cover as long as that set is won in any way other than a tie-breaker and this does look a three set match in the making. There should be a few breaks of serve each way, but I like Bouchard to at least keep it much closer than she did against Halep in a huge match for both players with ambitions of making it through to the Semi Finals.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-6, - 10.16 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.57% Yield)

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