Tennis Picks 2014 (October 25th)

I was beginning to think Rafael Nadal was going to at least finish his season with a performance at the O2 Arena in the World Tour Finals, but he has decided to end his 2014 season after being beaten in Basel.

That shouldn't really be a surprise as it was clear on Friday that Nadal was far from his usual self and he has made it clear that he wants a full recovery in time for the 2015 season which begins in two months time. Nadal will get his back looked at which caused some many problems all those months ago at the Australian Open as well as going in for surgery on his appendix, but the feeling is that he will have enough time to be more than ready for the Australian Open.


Nadal's withdrawal means an extra place as opened up at the Tour Finals and there are four places up for grabs going into the last ten days of the regular Tour. Kei Nishikori is almost certainly to have one of those which means Tomas Berdych, Andy Murray, David Ferrer and Milos Raonic are fighting for the remaining three places.

Murray takes on Ferrer in the Semi Final in Valencia on Saturday and the winner of that is likely to be the sixth player booking their place in London, while Berdych looks to have enough points already with Paris still to be played. Milos Raonic has faltered the most of these players over the last few weeks and he will need a big week in Paris to overcome one of the other three players I mentioned, while Grigor Dimitrov's Quarter Final loss in Basel is likely going to cost him.


Those issues will be cleared up over the next few days, but the WTA Tour has seen their Finals reach the Semi Finals which are to be played on Saturday. Serena Williams somehow managed to move through and she will be the favourite to win the tournament now, especially if she can beat Caroline Wozniacki in that Semi Final which I do believe she can do.

Agnieszka Radwanska owes Wozniacki a lot for her place in the Semi Final as her close friend beat Petra Kvitova in straight sets on Friday even with her place already booked in the next stage. Radwanska takes on Simona Halep in a tough second Semi Final, but I think the Romanian has been playing well enough to reach the Final.


Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: These two players are very close off the court, but that didn't stop Serena Williams obliterating Caroline Wozniacki in the Final of the US Open after a couple of very close matches between them during the summer hard court swing.

Serena Williams has now won six matches in a row against Wozniacki and she has to be feeling much better having survived in the tournament despite and absolutely awful performance in her loss to Simona Halep. She did bounce back to dismiss a disinterested Eugenie Bouchard and I think Williams will need to play as well as she has at any point this week if she is to see off Wozniacki.

There seems to be a new confidence in the way Wozniacki has been playing and it has certainly impressed me- I have been a critic of Wozniacki in the past, but I actually think she is playing better than when she was World Number 1 with more aggression leading to more positive results.

The Dane will need to be aggressive if she is going to win this match, but she also has to find the balance between attacking and defending considering how much more power Williams possesses. If Wozniacki can extract the unforced errors from Serena, she can cause the upset, but I don't imagine the World Number 1 playing as poorly as she did against Halep again this week and I like her to find a 75, 64 win in this Semi Final.


Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: It must be a strange situation for both of these players who are coming into the match off of losses- Agnieszka Radwanska can't have played too many tournaments where she has lost twice yet still has the chance to win a title, while Simona Halep was beaten in three sets by Ana Ivanovic in what became a dead rubber after the Romanian took the second set.

I was surprised Halep put in as much of an effort to win that match with Ivanovic as she did as she had a real chance to earn some rest without putting in a full effort, but it is clear her game relies on the rhythm that means she can't take a moment off.

Even after that tough match, Halep should still be in better physical condition than Radwanska who has played two long matches in a row and has to be a little short of confidence that comes from back to back losses. She might look at this as a chance to play with 'house money', but Radwanska wasn't in great form to end the season and Halep won't make a host of unforced errors that Petra Kvitova did in the Pole's only win in the Group.

These two players have split their two previous matches one each earlier this season, but I like Halep's consistency and added power to be too much for Radwanska in a 63, 64 win.


Andy Murray - 2.5 games v David Ferrer: Over the last month, David Ferrer and Andy Murray have split two matches with one win apiece and the winner of this one is likely to take the title in Valencia on Sunday and come very close to booking a place in the World Tour Finals.

They have both shown their form at different times this week, but I think the edge should go to Andy Murray who has the bigger first serve and can earn a few 'cheaper' points than Ferrer who will have to work for everything he gets.

With Rafael Nadal pulling out of the Tour Finals, there is slightly less pressure on both of these players with that extra place opened up. However, I think Ferrer will likely be the slightly happier with how the draw has panned out in Paris and Murray might be more desperate for the points on offer this week.

Expect long drawn out rallies as has been the case in both matches over the last month, but I think Murray can win the second match in a row against Ferrer and move into the Final behind a 46, 75, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-13, - 9.78 Units (42 Units Staked, - 23.29% Yield)