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Thursday 2 October 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (October 2nd)

There was plenty of rain in Beijing which disrupted the play on the outdoor courts on Wednesday, leaving the likes of Tomas Berdych and Grigor Dimitrov waiting their chance to add some more points to their bid to reach the World Tour Finals.

That means the two players will be scheduled to play on Thursday where a lot of tennis has to be got to be completed throughout the day, while the Second Round is to be concluded in Tokyo too. The players that have real ambitions of chasing a berth in London for the World Tour Finals are still in, bar David Ferrer who was beaten in the First Round in Tokyo, and the next few days are going to be interesting to see which of those players makes a big move towards securing one of the five remaining places.


The Race to Singapore seems to be much clearer on the WTA side of the Tour and the top eight players are all in a strong position to book their place at the season ending event. The main players involved in the race with a real expectation of finishing in the top eight are still in action in Beijing this week and I think the end of this week is going to be full of some top matches on that side of the draw too.


It was a decent day for the picks with the three matches being completed all coming in as winners with the other pick being postponed until Thursday due to the weather. Hopefully the positive trend keeps moving forward on Thursday with the following picks.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: A couple of days of rest since last playing a match could be vital for Andy Murray as he bids to add some more points to his Race to London ahead of another big tournament in Shanghai.

The match up looks a good one on paper against Pablo Cuevas who has had some surprising wins over the last couple of weeks considering his lack of hard court matches over the last twelve months.

It has been a big season for Cuevas who is close to returning to the top 32 in the World Rankings which comes with a Seed for Grand Slam tournaments and automatic entries into the Masters tournaments. Cuevas, like Murray, came through a very difficult first match here in Beijing, but it is Murray who has the better hard court pedigree and the motivation on his side.

Murray hasn't been serving very well which is a big concern with spreads of this size, but I think he will have the beating of Cuevas and can come through with a 64, 62 win.


Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Donald Young: Kei Nishikori has beaten Donald Young comfortably in their last two matches including at the Australian Open earlier this year, and I think the Japanese star is playing even better at the moment than he has before in his career.

Winning an event last week could have had Nishikori a little fatigued, but his home tournament have been good enough to give him until Wednesday to start his surge to the title in Tokyo and he was a solid winner over Ivan Dodig in the first match.

Dodig spoke about how confident Nishikori is while also having an improving serve and these factors can help him overcome Donald Young who has failed to reach the heights expected of him as a youngster. Young's lefty serve will cause some problems, but Nishikori could end up dominating the majority of the rallies and pull away as the match goes on.

I like Nishikori to come through with a 75, 62 win.


Ekaterina Makarova - 4.5 games v Roberta Vinci: Ekaterina Makarova has had a strong 2014 and she is still within range of reaching the tournament in Singapore to end the season with a strong showing here in Beijing.

I like her chances to beat Roberta Vinci in this Third Round match considering the down year that the Italian has suffered through.

Vinci has a weak backhand that opponents are more comfortable dealing with, while she won't hurt you with her serve and I am not surprised that Makarova has won their two matches played this season. Both of those wins have come fairly comfortably for Makarova and I think she has the power to keep Vinci on the backfoot in this one.

Makarova could come through with a fairly routine 64, 63 win.


Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Andrea Petkovic: It has been a strong season for Simona Halep who looks set to finish behind Serena Williams in the end of year World Rankings, but she will still want to end the season with a flourish after a couple of disappointing tournaments.

Halep has shown the quality to win matches over the last eighteen months despite not having a huge serve, but her power off the ground and her movement gives her a real edge over many of the players she plays.

She won't have it all her own way against Andrea Petkovic who has moved back into the world top 20, but this is also a player that has struggled against some of the better players on the Tour. Over the last eighteen months, she has also been beaten in all three matches against Halep and the feeling is that the Romanian can make it four in a row against her.

I expect to see a few breaks of serve before Halep moves through with a 64, 64 win.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Lucie Safarova: The last time these players met a couple of months ago saw Lucie Safarova push Serena Williams all the way, but it still ended with a straight sets loss for the player from the Czech Republic.

Since that match, Serena Williams has actually improved her play and I think she is over the illness that forced her to withdraw from Wuhan last week.

On the other hand, Safarova has had the slightest of dips from a summer where she reached the Wimbledon Semi Final and also the Quarter Final at the US Open, and that could prove to be the difference between this being a close match or one that Williams should win with a little more room to spare.

If Serena is serving well, Safarova will be facing a scoreboard pressure that could see her crack and eventually fall to a 75, 62 loss.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units) Advised Yesterday but postponed due to rain on Wednesday

Weekly Update: 6-3, + 5.16 Units (18 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

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