Weekend Football Picks 2014 (October 4-5)

This is the final round of top flight domestic football throughout Europe before we hit the second international break of the season. I completely understand why games like England against San Marino and Estonia are required on the calendar, especially once I saw the squad that Roy Hodgson put together, and there is every chance we will see a surprising couple of results(!)

While I am not jesting about the standard of the England squad (I have described it as average... Worse than average), games like this masquerading as 'qualifiers' have to be a real waste of time and there has to be some changes made. The clubs are paying big money for players that are potentially injured while on duty with their national sides and sometimes risked in games where manager wouldn't need to play such a strong team.

I can't imagine too many are rushing to buy seats for the England game against San Marino and it just looks a game where some players can improve their goalscoring record. International breaks are the worst time of the year, especially if your team goes into the next two weeks off the back of a loss, while Manchester United fans also have the misfortune of needing to wait until Monday 20th October before they play again with Sky Sports deciding to pick them as the last live game of the weekend.


The first two months of the football season have produced enough surprising results to put me in a pretty big hole, but October did start more positively as I look to turn around some of the form I have shown. Hopefully these picks can keep the positive trend going, although the majority of the games I have picked will be played on Sunday.


Swansea v Newcastle United Pick: There was a lot of effort and hard work put into the game by the Newcastle United players as they searched for something from the Stoke City defeat on Monday night, but a lack of quality in the final third made it all for nought.

Now they travel to the Liberty Stadium with a poor away record in the Premier League over their last few games and I think this is going to be a really difficult game for Newcastle United to grab something from.

Swansea have been playing well and they have the pace up front to really put Newcastle on the back foot and they should be able to control the game with their possession style of play. It has been a tough few weeks for Swansea who have really been hit with poor individual mistakes by players getting sent off which has prevented them winning games.

However, they have played well enough to think this Newcastle United team will be put under pressure in this game and Alan Pardew may be in for a couple of really difficult weeks if they go into this one with another away loss. It might not be an easy win, but Swansea can show the extra quality to earn the three points.


Aston Villa v Manchester City Pick: The last two games against Arsenal and Chelsea have shown that Aston Villa are still far short of the top teams in the Premier League and I think it is going to be another very difficult game for them in front of the TV cameras on Saturday.

The problem for Aston Villa at home is that the fans will expect them to give it a right go against Manchester City and that should give the Champions more of a chance to exploit them on the break.

Last season we saw a very good response from Aston Villa in coming back from two deficits to then beat Manchester City 3-2 at Villa Park, but this Manchester City team is not as vulnerable on their travels as they were at the same stage twelve months ago.

Playing in the Champions League could have introduced some tiredness in the Manchester City squad, but they have many options to change things around and I expect them to respond to the draw with Roma on Tuesday night. Manchester City have been scoring plenty of goals in recent games, especially away from home, and I think Aston Villa will have a tough time trying to contain them.

With the amount of goals at Aston Villa have conceded in their last two games against top opposition, Manchester City are likely to take advantage too with the attacking players at their disposal. Defensively Manchester City haven't been so sound so it is entirely possible that Aston Villa can cause problems themselves as long as they believe in what they can do.

In saying that, Manchester City should win a game where there should be at least three goals shared between the teams.


Manchester United v Everton Pick: These are the kind of games that Manchester United really need to win if they have real ambitions of finishing in the top four this season, especially by taking advantage of the travel that Everton have been doing this past week.

Wayne Rooney is suspended, but that might actually play into the hands of Louis Van Gaal and will placate a lot of the fans that would rather see Juan Mata playing behind Radamel Falcao and Robin Van Persie.

It is a big month ahead for Mata who can stake a claim in the starting eleven with rumours surrounding the Spaniard's future at Old Trafford. Some believe that the signing made from Chelsea could actually leave Manchester United after just one year at the club, but I think Mata will love playing with the movement that Falcao and Angel Di Maria will offer him and I can see him having a big impact in the game.

However, Ander Herrera's injury means more problems for Manchester United when it comes to preventing goals going in and the defence could have another new look this weekend. Van Gaal will be hoping one of Phil Jones, Chris Smalling or Jonny Evans can return to give United an experienced presence at centre half, while Michael Carrick's return would fill Herrera's hole in midfield.

Everton will feel they can expose some of the defensive issues Manchester United have with their ability from set pieces and the counter-attack being a big method of attack for Roberto Martinez. I expect Everton will cause some problems of their own in what could be a high-scoring game, but Manchester United can expose some of the defensive problems that Everton have been working through too.

The lack of travel this week has to be a big bonus for United considering Everton are coming back from Russia on Thursday night and I think that could play a part late in the game. At the moment it wouldn't surprise me if Everton score considering the United defensive issues, but I think Manchester United will record an important three points to send the fans home happy and with two weeks to enjoy the positive mood that win would give the team.


Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: When Arsenal travelled to the top teams in the Premier League last season, they really struggled to impose themselves and a defensive vulnerability was exposed on a number of occasions. The 6-0 loss at Chelsea was one of a number of heavy losses on their travels including at Everton, Liverpool and Manchester City and there are still some questions about Arsenal despite the 2-2 draw at Goodison Park this season where they could have been beaten comfortably.

The style of play that Arsenal bring to the table will always give their opponents a chance to take control of a game and I would be surprised if Chelsea are not dictating play on Sunday in this live game.

Cesc Fabregas will face his former team, but he has moved seamlessly into this Chelsea team while Diego Costa looks a player that has played in England for years rather than the reality of just a few weeks.

Jose Mourinho also asks his side to play a more attacking brand of football than most of his critics claim the Portuguese manager is capable of playing and Chelsea have created plenty of chances in their games this season. At Stamford Bridge they have been particularly strong and Chelsea are unlikely to sit back on a lead in this game.

Games between these teams have generally produced a lot of goals, while Arsenal away games against the top teams also saw the Gunners concede plenty of goals. I was very close to just picking the over 2.5 goals option from this game, but I really believe Chelsea are the better team and have less injury issues to contend with which should allow them to pick up the three points.

Chelsea to win a high-scoring game looks the most likely result of this game and I will back that scenario to occur.


Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton Pick: This should be a fascinating game on Sunday afternoon, even if most eyes will be on the game at Stamford Bridge which will be kicking off at the same time. On current form and considering Tottenham Hotspur's struggles over the last twelve months following Europa League ties does make Southampton a really attractive price to win this game, but Mauricio Pochettino knows these players backwards and should be able to prepare effectively for the game.

That makes it an intriguing game and I think it will be a game where either team could potentially win as both teams can score goals, but also have a few issues keeping clean sheets.

Tottenham Hotspur haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 4 home games in all competitions, while Southampton have scored and conceded in 2 of their last 3 away games.

It is unlikely that either team is going to sit back and look to earn just a point in this game, not with the three points being as valuable as they could be with both looking for European football at the end of the season. Goals may not be a premium this Sunday in my opinion and this game is another that could produce at least three goals shared by the teams who do try to play with attacking tendencies.

There have been times that I have been unimpressed with Tottenham when they are forced to break down teams which is a concern, but Southampton will be a team that Mauricio Pochettino knows enough about to find a way for his team to create chances. At odds against, going for goals is the call.


West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers Pick: There are some games that managers will target for three points and I would be surprised if Sam Allardyce doesn't expect anything but a victory from this home match against Queens Park Rangers.

On current form, it is hard to see QPR picking up too many points on their travels and the international break will be a good time for Harry Redknapp to perhaps tinker with his line up. They did score at Southampton last week, but there haven't been a lot of goals in this Queens Park Rangers team, particularly on their travels, and now they face a confident West Ham United.

Allardyce may have left Old Trafford a little disappointed that West Ham couldn't have earned something from the game against Manchester United, but they did win their last Premier League game at Upton Park with a convincing 3-1 win over Liverpool.

West Ham have either won or lost their last 11 home games in the Premier League (W6, L5) and I think they have looked very effective going forward. I am expecting West Ham to score goals in this one and it may be tough for Rangers to keep up with them with the home side expected to take home the three points when it is all said and done.

MY PICKS: Swansea @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City Win and Over 2.5 Goals Scored @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Both teams to Score and Manchester United to Win @ 3.25 William Hill (1 Unit)
Chelsea Win and Over 2.5 Goals Scored @ 2.40 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)

October Update: 3-1, + 4.52 Units (8 Units Staked, + 56.5% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 20-40, - 22.20 Units (92 Units Staked, - 24.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)