ATP World Tour Finals Day 4 Picks 2014 (November 12)

Things have just begun to take shape at the World Tour Finals and by the end of Wednesday we should have a very clear picture of what players need to do in their final matches to progress to the Semi Finals.

After both Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka won their opening matches of Group A by the same 61, 61 scoreline, it would be a surprise if either player exits the tournament at this stage. However, they meet one another and the loser is still going to have work to do on Friday no matter which way the Tomas Berdych-Marin Cilic match goes earlier in the day.


Group B has already got the permutations in place, although there are a couple of scenarios where the number of games won and lost could be a deciding factor into which players make it through to the Semi Final. Roger Federer is in the strongest position where he either needs to win one set or lose in two tight sets against Andy Murray to earn his place in the Semi Final, although winning a set will also ensure Federer finished top of the Group.

Milos Raonic is in the toughest position knowing that he has to win in straight sets against Kei Nishikori and anything less means he will exit the event at the Group Stage in his first appearance in the Tour Finals.

Kei Nishikori and Andy Murray are in the strangest spot as both men have won 2 sets and lost 2 sets so far, while Murray has the edge in terms of games won/lost, and it is the Brit who has been afforded the second Singles slot on the Thursday schedule which means he should be completely aware of what he has to do to go through at that time.


Tomas Berdych v Marin Cilic: Marin Cilic has beaten Tomas Berdych the last two times they have met one another and both of those have been on the big stage at Grand Slam events at Wimbledon and the US Open, both victories coming in straight sets.

The win at the US Open was on Cilic's way to winning his maiden Grand Slam title, but the end of the season has been a little tough mentally for him even if he did win the title in Moscow against a very weak field. There has been little tennis played since that title win and he was blitzed by Novak Djokovic in a devastating defeat to open Group play.

That also means Cilic has to win this match if he wants to give himself a real chance of extending his time in London, but he is going to play Berdych who is also desperate and cannot be as bad as he was in his heavy defeat against Stan Wawrinka. Berdych described that as his 'worst performance' of the season and I would expect a lot more from him.

Berdych has been playing some decent tennis over the last month to think he can bounce back with this second chance in the Group, although qualifying is going to be tough as he will likely have to beat Novak Djokovic to do that. The big Czech server can give himself a chance though as I think he has more competitive tennis in his legs and I am not convinced Cilic is fully fit for this tournament and is only playing because of the achievement of reaching the Tour Finals for the first time.

Those doubts about Cilic means I am surprised he is the favourite to win this match and I will back Berdych to bounce back as the underdog and get a semblance of revenge on Cilic for back to back Grand Slam losses. I also believe there is a decent chance of this being the first three set match of the tournament.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: Both Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka were impressive winners in their first match and neither play took more than 58 minutes to get the job done and set themselves up for a place in the Semi Final. I do think both men are going to be moving through to the knock out stage of the competition, but winning the Group is looking vital considering Roger Federer looks almost certain to do the same in Group B.

It is something of a surprise that two men that have been ranked in the top four of the World Rankings are only meeting for the second time in 2014 and the first since Stan Wawrinka ended Novak Djokovic's dominance at the Australian Open back in January. Now the Swiss player is looking to end Djokovic's long unbeaten run on the indoor hard courts which hasn't shown much sign of coming to an end.

They did meet in the Semi Final last season which Djokovic won pretty comfortably and I think people might be expecting a closer match after the way both played in the first round of games. However, I think Wawrinka was given a lot more help from the poor performance of Tomas Berdych than Djokovic was by Marin Cilic.

Form has definitely been on the side of Djokovic and I think he is going to get a measure of revenge on Wawrinka by coming through in straight sets which essentially puts him into the Semi Final. I do think Wawrinka likes the match up with his backhand and serve capable of negating some of Djokovic's big shots, but the Swiss player has lost a lot of matches since the US Open and one big performance against Berdych is not enough to convince me he can hold up Djokovic just yet.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 4-2, + 4.24 Units (12 Units Staked, + 35.33% Yield)