ATP World Tour Finals Day 8 Pick- Novak Djokovic v Roger Federer (November 16)

After a pretty good ten and a bit months, the last singles match of the ATP tennis 2014 season will be played between the two players who most deserved it as Novak Djokovic gets set to face Roger Federer.

These two are finishing the year as the World Number 1 and 2 and, outside of Rafael Nadal who unfortunately missed three months from Wimbledon until the Asian swing, Djokovic and Federer have been in position to contest the major titles.

In saying that, it is interesting to note that Djokovic 'only' reached two Grand Slam Finals, winning one, and Roger Federer 'only' made the one Slam Final in which he was defeated by Djokovic at Wimbledon.

There is a feeling that other players on the Tour are capable of producing that magical match to beat these guys at the Majors as Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, Ernests Gulbis and Marin Cilic showed at the Australian and US Opens.

Still, going into 2015, you'd have to expect Djokovic and Federer to be at the business end of tournaments with the way they have been playing for much of the season, although I am looking forward to seeing if Nishikori, Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov can build on the seasons they have produced. It will be nice to see Dimitrov make the World Tour Finals in twelve months time after he came so close to reaching London this season and he looks the next breakthrough player at the Slams that could potentially win one of the Majors in the coming season.

I do think Wimbledon will provide his best chance as Dimitrov has the game for the surface and grass remains a conundrum for so many other players, while another player I am looking forward to seeing is the returning Juan Martin Del Potro. The big Argentine has missed much of the 2014 season and seems to have delayed his return to the Tour so he can be fully fit and ready to go in 2015 and he has to have watched Wawrinka and Cilic win Grand Slam titles with some envy.

Since winning the US Open in 2009, there have been a couple of times that Del Potro has looked close to adding to his sole Grand Slam win, but he hasn't quite kicked on to become a regular feature in the top four of the World Rankings. Another wrist injury may mean we will have to wait a while before Del Potro can produce his very best again, which is a shame, but there are some exciting things to come in 2015.


Before that there is the small matter of completing the World Tour Finals, while the Davis Cup Final is set to begin next Friday in Lille, although the weather forecast isn't encouraging for an outdoor clay court.

Hopefully that is going to be a pretty special Final between France and Switzerland and I have to say I am looking forward to seeing if Roger Federer can add a trophy to his haul that he has yet to win.


Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Roger Federer: I picked Novak Djokovic to win this tournament at the start of the week and anyone following that might decide they don't want to back the Serb again, but I do believe this isn't enough games for Roger Federer in the Final.

I have a lot of respect for the fitness that Federer has displayed throughout his career, but he is still a 33 year old man that was pushed to his very limit on Saturday evening and will have had a lot less rest than his opponent in this Final. It wasn't just the physical battle, but the emotions of playing his compatriot Stan Wawrinka and having to dig deep to win the match after saving match points against him.

The match also went the absolute distance by being decided in the tie-breaker and I do remember Federer struggling in the Olympic Gold Medal game in 2012 after being pushed all the way by Juan Martin Del Potro in the Semi Final. That match was played with a day of rest between the Semi Finals and while the match with Wawrinka wasn't close to that in terms of time, Federer is also facing Djokovic in the peak of his form.

Djokovic has had one blip all week in the Semi Final against Kei Nishikori, but he could have won that in straight sets and I think he will be extra focused in underlining his place as World Number 1 against his closest rival on the season.

The Serb has also beaten Federer in the last two editions of this tournament in the Final and the conditions are definitely more to Djokovic's liking than Federer who would have preferred a quicker court. Federer might be extra aggressive in a bid to shorten points and that could lead to more mistakes than normal and play perfectly into Djokovic's hands who will be happy to extend rallies and take Federer into deep waters.

Federer actually has a 3-2 lead over Djokovic in the 2014 season, but I believe the Serb will tie up loose ends and win this match 63, 64 while confirming his place as the man to beat going into the 2015 season.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 10-2, + 16.52 Units (24 Units Staked, + 68.83% Yield)