Midweek Football Picks 2014 (November 4-6)

This has been a really tough beginning to the season with little sign of recovery if I am being perfectly honest, but I haven't really changed what has produced a winning record in the last two years. A little bit of luck could make all the difference to move the needle in a positive direction, but it has been hard work of late and can be awfully frustrating.


During this week we get to see the pivotal fourth game in the Group Stage of the Champions League and the Europa League when teams can start qualifying for the knock-out stage of the competitions and others see their chances disappear. It is important for teams to try and get themselves qualified as soon as possible so they don't have to play their top players in too many games, especially those teams from England that don't have the luxury of a winter break.

However, only Arsenal and Chelsea are in a position to move through to the Last 16 in the Champions League this week, while the other teams in this competition and in the Europa League still have plenty of work to do.


Bad luck + bad picks makes a miserable start to this season and it is becoming more like a trend which has to be a concern. The only thing you can do is hope that the former changes and you can steer clear of the latter, but it seemed to work the last couple of seasons so this is not the time to panic and change philosophy too radically.


Arsenal v Anderlecht Pick: There have been better signs from Arsenal in their recent games and I do think Anderlecht are overmatched in this one despite how close the first game was. Arsenal had been lacklustre in that game, but they showed they have the additional quality by winning that one in Belgium and I think this is a much tougher task for Anderlecht.

It should play into the home team's hands that Anderlecht are making all the right noises about coming to the Emirates Stadium to express themselves which should create space for the likes of Aaron Ramsey, Santi Cazorla, Alexis Sanchez and Danny Welbeck to exploit.

Sanchez in particular has shown why he was so effective at Barcelona and considered a huge signing made by Arsenal and he is great form with every chance of continuing his strong run in front of goal. He poses the biggest threat for Arsenal, but the attacking talent that should start the game makes it difficult to see Anderlecht keeping up with the home team.

I respect any manager that is willing to try and set his team out to win games and Besnik Hasi has made the noises to think he will at least try to do that. While it should make for a decent game to watch for the neutrals, it should also mean Arsenal win this by a couple of goals.


Basel v Ludogorets Pick: This is a vital game for both of these teams who have to play the two big names remaining in the Group, but both Basel and Ludogorets are in a position to split Real Madrid and Liverpool and move through to the Last 16.

The winner of this game could put themselves in a very strong position in the Group as Liverpool won't be expected to get too much from their trip to Real Madrid and that will amp up the pressure for both Basel and Ludogorets.

Home advantage should be key for Basel who beat Ludogorets here last season in the Champions League qualifiers and the Swiss team will be feeling a little disappointed they didn't get a point in Ludogorets two weeks ago despite playing with ten men for most of the game.

Basel have won 4 of their last 6 home Champions League games including beating Liverpool in the Group and Ludogorets have lost 3 of their last 5 away games in the competition. At odds on, Basel do look a little short, but I think they are going to be too strong for the Bulgarian Champions and move into a position to qualify into the Last 16.


Juventus v Olympiacos Pick: Juventus have struggled to take their Serie A form into the Champions League over the last couple of seasons and they are in a 'must win' situation if they are to qualify for the Last 16 this season after their Group Stage exit last year.

The 1-0 loss in Greece a couple of weeks ago have left Juventus 3 points behind both Olympiacos and Atletico Madrid and a defeat in this one will effectively be curtains for the Italian Champions. Juventus have lost both away games they have played in the competition, but they did beat Malmo at home which is part of a 7 game winning run in all competitions in front of their own fans.

Juventus have won their last 2 home games in the Champions League following a run of 3 games without a win in this competition in this stadium. Facing a confident Olympiacos team won't be easy, but there is little doubt that they don't travel as well as they play at home and that was shown in their 2-0 loss in Malmo.

That now means Olympiacos have lost their last 3 away games in the Champions League and Juventus have won plenty of home games in recent weeks by at least two goals that I think they can do here. Winning comfortably could be important for tie-breakers later in the Group which is where it could be heading so Juventus are unlikely to take their foot off the pedal if they do take control of the game and I like them to win by a couple of goals at least.


Real Madrid v Liverpool Pick: Real Madrid were devastating going forward against Liverpool two weeks ago which saw them go into half time with a 0-3 lead at Anfield. The players even openly admitted that they didn't put too much effort into the second half knowing they were going to play Barcelona just days later, but Real Madrid still had more chances to extend their lead with better finishing or a better final ball.

The return of Gareth Bale to the squad will make them a more dangerous team going forward especially as Brendan Rodgers has shown himself unwilling to change tactics from the attacking approach he prefers. Without the pace of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge, teams have found it easier to defend against Liverpool and the defence has looked very vulnerable.

That doesn't bode well for Liverpool considering Real Madrid have scored 18 goals in their last 4 home games including crushing Barcelona and this might be another painful lesson for the English side to face.

Cristiano Ronaldo will be motivated to break Raul's Champions League goalscoring record and Real Madrid are unlikely to change tact. They don't have to worry about a 'big' game against a team like Barcelona this time around and Carlo Ancelotti won't tone down the attacking instincts that makes Real Madrid arguably the best team in Europe on current form.

It looks a big ask for Liverpool to keep tabs on the home team that can secure qualification into the Last 16 as winners of this Group and I like Real Madrid to record another convincing win.

EDITOR NOTE: So I said I needed some luck going my way, but I guess Tuesday's results are a sign that things just refuse to change... Arsenal blow a 3-0 lead, Real Madrid batter Liverpool but only manage one goal despite chances for more and Juventus miss a penalty that would have resulted in a 4-2 win.

Research all you like, with luck like that there really isn't a lot I can do but be seriously peed off!!


Manchester City v CSKA Moscow Pick: It was a remarkable ending to the Manchester derby on Sunday as it seemed Manchester City suddenly had a huge touch of the nerves by allowing Manchester United to get back into a game that could have been out of sight much earlier in the contest. The whole stadium was feeling twitchy and it has to be a worry for Manchester City coming into a Champions League game they have to win if they are to progress to the Last 16.

I do think the game is a good one for Manchester City against a CSKA Moscow team that had no right to get anything from the first game in Russia and one that has travelled badly in the Champions League with 5 straight away losses. Only one of those games was competitive as CSKA Moscow have lost 4 of those games by three goals or more and Manchester City could definitely earn the result they want comfortably with a little bit more of a clinical finish in front of goal.

Losing David Silva is a blow, but Samir Nasri might be ready to return to a starting role and offer more creativity, while Sergio Aguero looks a threat every time he picks up the ball.

Manual Pellegrini has still not quite got the best out of Yaya Toure since the summer discontent that the midfielder showed last season, but there have been some signs he is getting up to speed.

And for all the criticism of Manchester City and slight loss of confidence that was shown up in the last ten minutes of the game against Manchester United, CSKA Moscow have to pick themselves up from a very important home loss against title rivals Zenit St Petersburg.

With the goalscoring threat Manchester City have coupled with CSKA Moscow's poor away record in the competition and the vast amount of goals they have conceded, backing the home team to win this by at least two goals looks the call.


Maribor v Chelsea Pick: There is little doubt that Chelsea's trip to Anfield is the more important away game that the side will be playing this week so Jose Mourinho can be expected to make some changes to his first team to reflect that. However, Chelsea have plenty of depth and they will still have a decent team take to the field on Wednesday against a Maribor team they will expect to beat and put themselves into the Last 16 of the Champions League.

Winning the Group can't be decided this week, although that will be another ambition for Chelsea, and they do look like they will be too strong for Maribor despite the heart the team show at home.

That was on display as they scored a last minute equaliser against Sporting Lisbon to avoid defeat in their opening game, but recent form for Maribor hasn't been the best and I can't see them containing Chelsea for the whole ninety minutes.

One aspect that Jose Mourinho won't be pleased with in regards to his Chelsea team has to be the amount of goals they have conceded away from home, especially late in games. Chelsea have surprisingly kept just one clean sheet in their 7 away games this season, but they have conceded goals in the last five minutes at Manchester City, Crystal Palace and Manchester United which has seen them lose four points and must be a frustration to Mourinho.

However, the Champions League has proven to be better for Chelsea who have 4 clean sheets from their last 7 away games in the competition under Mourinho and I can see that being the foundation for their success in this game. I expect Maribor to cause some problems as they did at Stamford Bridge two weeks ago, but Mourinho should set out a Chelsea team that won't be easy to breach.

They should still have enough quality to find a goal from somewhere and Chelsea can win this one to nil.

MY PICKS: Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Basel @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Juventus - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.14 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November Update: 1-5, - 6.40 Units (10 Units, - 64% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 28-58, - 36.99 Units (139 Units Staked, - 26.61% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)