NBA Picks November 2014

Saturday 1 November
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic Pick: Injuries to the Orlando Magic backcourt should mean that Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are able to dominate this game as long as they not looking ahead to playing the Miami Heat on the road tomorrow.

The Raptors have won on their last 3 visits to Orlando and I expect them to make that four in a row with the cover.

Boston Celtics @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Houston Rockets have started the season well and I think Boston are perhaps a little over-rated for their dominant home win over Brooklyn.

Houston have won and covered in three straight at home against Boston and I think they have too much scoring power for the Celtics.


Sunday 2 November
Sacramento Kings @ LA Clippers Pick: The Clippers have won both games they have played but failed to cover the number and I expect that to change against a Sacramento team that hasn't always played well after an upset win.


Monday 3 November
Houston Rockets @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: The Houston Rockets do have to face the Miami Heat on Tuesday which could see them overlook the Philadelphia 76ers who have been terrible to start the season.

However, the Rockets have won every game by double digits and Philadelphia have been beaten by double digits in every game and I like Houston to continue their strong start to the season even if Dwight Howard sits.


Tuesday 4 November
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: I think the Cleveland Cavaliers will go through the teething problems that the Miami Heat faced in their first season with the 'Big Three' but I think this represents a good spot for them. The game against Utah on Wednesday won't be a concern for LeBron James and Co who can make a statement against a top Western Conference team, albeit one that has been struggling a little.

Portland can be a real pain if the three point shot suddenly starts falling, but Cleveland can counter that with Kevin Love from the perimeter and I think the Cavs cover the small spread.


Wednesday 5 November
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics Pick: The Raptos are playing the fourth game in five days and played on Tuesday when needing to dig a little deeper to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder than they would have liked.

It is possible they were looking towards this game against a Divisional rival and I am not sure Boston, despite two good performances in three games, should be favoured and I'll take the small points on offer.


New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons Pick: JR Smith has been suspended for one game and the New York Knicks struggled in two previous visits to the Detroit Pistons.

However, much like the Boston Celtics, I am not convinced about this home favourite and I think the Knicks can make this a competitive game despite this being the second of back to back games played.


Thursday 6 November
Dallas Mavericks @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: Portland didn't have to play that well to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, but I was still surprised to see them set as favourites against the Dallas Mavericks.

Chandler Parsons has fitted in this roster and Dallas are playing very well. As long as they don't start slowly in the second half again, I like taking the points as the Mavericks look for a third straight win in the Rose Garden.


Friday 7 November
New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The Knicks showed what they are capable of in the Fourth Quarter against the Detroit Pistons, but they have to better Defensively if they are going to knock off local rivals the Brooklyn Nets.

Regardless, it does feel the Knicks are getting too many points with JR Smith returning to provide a scoring punch from the bench and Brooklyn still finding consistency in their own play.

Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns Pick: While the Sacramento Kings bubble is likely to burst sooner rather than later, you can't help but feel they are being given too many points after some big time early season performances and wins.

Phoenix can't take any game easy after just failing to make the Play Offs last season, but this is the meat in the Memphis-Golden State sandwich and the Suns might be looking to make a statement in their next game which could make this one surprisingly competitive.


Monday 10 November
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Pick: The New York Knicks are struggling with the new Offense they have in place, but the bigger concern has to be on the other side of the court where too many uncontested shots have been allowed to hit.

The Atlanta Hawks can win this home and home series with a stronger consistent effort, but they managed a big second half comeback at home against the Knicks and I do think Atlanta win again.

Detroit Pistons @ Chicago Bulls Pick: Stan Van Gundy has to be irritated with some of the late collapses his Detroit Pistons team have had early in the season, but this still looks a lot of points to be given against an Offensively challenged Chicago Bulls team.

Both Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler may sit in this one too which will make it tougher for the Bulls to cover this high number and the Pistons have covered in their last 4 visits here.


Tuesday 11 November
No idea how the Detroit Pistons didn't get inside the number considering they were down by just two points with under three minutes to play after a furious rally to reduce a first half deficit.

LA Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: I don't imagine too many times I will be backing the LA Lakers this season, but this looks a big number for the sometimes Offensively challenged Memphis Grizzlies to cover.

Memphis have struggled against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks in recent games and they are just 3-6 against the spread as the home favourite laying between 9.5 and 12 points over the last three seasons. The Lakers are a bad, bad team, but this is a lot of points.

Sacramento Kings @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: The Sacramento Kings lost their last game as a road favourite, but I think they will enjoy the benefit of being a road underdog against a Dallas Mavericks team that have just been found wanting of late.

The Kings are 4-1 against the spread as the underdog this season and they have had two competitive losses in their last two visits to Dallas.


Wednesday 12 November
That brought back a lot of memories from last season- I saw plenty of teams I pick lose big leads and thus fail to cover, but the Sacramento Kings took the biscuit after leading by 24 points into the second quarter yesterday, which is 30.5 points on the handicap, and still didn't cover. It was Dallas' third biggest comeback win in their history and one of the worst non-covers I have seen in a long time.

Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Pick: The pieces have changed significantly since these two teams competed in the Eastern Conference Finals last May, but the Miami Heat have shown more than the injured and beat up Pacers.

The Heat have seen Chris Bosh flourish since LeBron James has moved on and I like Miami to win this one going away.

LA Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: The LA Lakers put in a huge effort yesterday and may find their energy levels a problem for the second of back to back nights play, a situation where they are 0-2 against the spread this season.

It looked like another road blow out for the Lakers who trailed Memphis by 17 points in the third quarter, but New Orleans have more Offensive firepower than the Grizzlies and won't let off if they build a big lead.

Editor's Note: After watching the Kings shit the bed on Tuesday, how annoyed was I to see New Orleans allow the Lakers to outscore them 13-1 in the final three and a half minutes which included three Pelicans turnovers... So a 19 point lead with 210 seconds left becomes a 6 point win, highly frustrating two days and that's not including Detroit's last two minute collapse either(!)


Friday 14 November
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Pick: The Cavaliers are still finding their feet Defensively, but LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are getting into a groove Offensively. That might be too much for the Boston Celtics who have a lack of depth on the bench due to injuries, while James has loved playing this team, even if they aren't the same as the one that caused him to leave Cleveland in the first place.

Boston will be up for this game, but the talent difference should help Cleveland to their third consecutive win.

San Antonio Spurs @ LA Lakers Pick: The Lakers had no right covering in their last game against the New Orleans Pelicans and I think they could have a tough time against the San Antonio Spurs that love to make a statement in big games. However, they are on a back to back so I am hoping Gregg Popovich doesn't use this as a chance to rest the likes of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.

If Pop doesn't do that, San Antonio should dominate the paint areas and be able to improve their 3-1 record against the spread from their last 4 visits to the Staples Center.


Saturday 15 November
Utah Jazz @ Toronto Raptors Pick: Utah had a buzzer beater win at Madison Square Garden last night and Gordon Hayward is a little banged up which should give the Toronto Raptors the edge in this one.

The Raptors have played well against teams with losing records and are strong at home while Utah are 0-2 against the spread in back to back situations this season, let alone a back to back off such an emotional win.

Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls Pick: The Pacers were blown out on Friday at home, but they have been much better in an underdog spot and are facing a Chicago team that are missing Derrick Rose this time.

The Bulls upset Toronto in their last game, but they are 12-22 against the spread in their next game after a win as an upset.


Sunday 16 November
Denver Nuggets @ New York Knicks Pick: I am a New York Knicks fan, although that might not have been clear with how down I have been on them, but that is mainly because they have a new Offense to learn and don't have a deep talent roster.

They won't have a better chance to snap their 7 game losing run against a Denver team that has struggled themselves and who are in the second of three road games that culminates with a game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Will Denver overlook the Knicks? I think there is every chance, while Carmelo Anthony can at least produce big numbers against his former team.

Denver are just 9-11 against the spread as a small road underdog and I like the Knicks to win again at last.

Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Houston arguably have a bigger game the next night against Memphis, but James Harden will want to show his former home fans what they are missing, especially in the absence of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant on the court.

I love how hard Oklahoma City are fighting at the moment, but Houston can get really hot from outside the arc and it could be hard for the Thunder to keep up, especially if Dwight Howard dominates inside.


Monday 17 November
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pick: I think the Orlando Magic can make this a competitive game and I don't believe the Detroit Pistons should be favoured by so many points. They are 0-4 against the spread at home, while they are 7-12 against the spread as the home favourite laying between 3.5 and 6 points including 0-3 this season.

On the other hand, Orlando have thrived as the underdog this season, going 6-2 against the spread, while the Pistons are also just 1-4 against the spread this season going against a team with a losing record.

Chicago Bulls @ LA Clippers Pick: The Clippers have been terrible against the number this season, while the Chicago Bulls are always a dangerous underdog with their tough Defensive schemes keeping them in games.

However, the absence of Derrick Rose is a big blow against a high-scoring Clippers team and I expect the home team to have a lot of respect for the Bulls who are one of the favourites to win the Eastern Conference. Los Angeles have won and covered the last 4 times they have played the Bulls and I expect that trend to be continued.


Thursday 20 November
Chicago Bulls @ Sacramento Kings Pick: Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol remain absent for Chicago and I think that gives the Sacramento Kings the edge in this one, despite the Bulls surprising the LA Clippers without their best two Offensive players on Monday.

The Kings should take them seriously after that win and Chicago are just 12-23 against the spread over the last three seasons when coming off a win as an underdog.

MY PICKS: 01/11 Toronto Raptors - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
01/11 Houston Rockets - 8 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
02/11 LA Clippers - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
03/11 Houston Rockets - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
04/11 Cleveland Cavaliers - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
05/11 Toronto Raptors + 2 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
05/11 New York Knicks + 4 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
06/11 Dallas Mavericks + 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
07/11 New York Knicks + 6 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
07/11 Sacramento Kings + 5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
10/11 Atlanta Hawks - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
10/11 Detroit Pistons + 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
11/11 LA Lakers + 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
11/11 Sacramento Kings + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
12/11 Miami Heat - 8 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
12/11 New Orleans Pelicans - 10.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
14/11 Cleveland Cavaliers - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
14/11 San Antonio Spurs - 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
15/11 Toronto Raptors - 10.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
15/11 Indiana Pacers + 9 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
16/11 New York Knicks - 1 Point @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
16/11 Houston Rockets - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
17/11 Orlando Magic + 4.5 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
17/11 Los Angeles Clippers - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
20/11 Sacramento Kings - 2 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

November Update: 14-11, + 1.70 Units

October Final: 2-4, - 2 Units
Season 2015: 2-4, - 2 Units

Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units