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Thursday 27 November 2014

NFL Week 13 Picks 2014 (November 27-December 1)

Of course this Thursday is Thanksgiving Day so Happy Thanksgiving Day to all those that are celebrating... For NFL fans it is also the excuse to sit in front of the television for eleven hours and enjoy the three games that have been lined up.

It is actually the best slate of games that I have seen in recent seasons with Play Off implications and Division leads all to be contested. The day also brings me back to heading over to Jerry's World three years ago for the Dolphins visit to Dallas which was still one of the best experiences one can enjoy!!


Week 12 Thoughts
Odell Beckham's ridiculous catch: You can't really start anywhere else this week as Odell Beckham almost did what Kim Kardashian had wanted to do and that is 'break the internet' following one of the most ridiculous catches ever.

Everyone must have seen the catch by now, but I still think this image is worth putting here.


It is a fantastic catch, really truly stunning but is it the best catch ever made?

As a single moment, it would be very hard to argue that, but I am still not convinced it would have had a bigger reaction than David Tyree's catch in the Super Bowl for the Giants against the Patriots in February 2008 if 'Twitter' and other social media sites were as big and important as they are today.


That catch effectively won the New York Giants the Super Bowl against the then unbeaten New England Patriots and even Beckham himself has said that was the better catch simply for what it ended up meaning.

Dwight Clark made 'The Catch' and I am sure San Francisco fans around the world would call that the 'Greatest Catch of All Time'.

Beckham's was spectacular and got me off my feet in surprise and excitement, but nothing has ever got me going more in the NFL than seeing David Tyree's catch to knock off the Patriots and that is not going to be surpassed in a game played in November. Moments make greatness and that catch would go over Beckham's in my book, especially as it was far from a routine catch that also involved the use of the helmet, and doing it in the Super Bowl for the underdog against the big, bad, unbeaten favourites intensifies it for me.


Does anyone want to to win the NFC South? The Division that sent two teams to the Play Offs last season has been downright miserable all season, but there was no sign of a turnaround for any of the teams in the Division in Week 12.

Tampa Bay, who at 3-11 are STILL in the Division race, Atlanta and New Orleans were all defeated again and the possibility of a team with a losing record winning the Division has increased dramatically now.

But will the Division produce a team with a record worse than the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks that won the NFC West a few years ago? 6-10 can win the Division with the way the schedules have boiled down which is downright embarrassing, especially as they will host a Play Off game, but it is hard to back these teams winning games at the moment.

I thought New Orleans were in a very strong bounce back spot, but they have lost three times in a row for only the third time in history and for the first time since 1997.

Atlanta continue screwing up the clock management to win games and Mike Smith is very much on the way out as Head Coach unless the Falcons win the Division, while Tampa Bay held Chicago to fewer than 210 total yards and still lost by eight points!!


Quarter Back changes galore in the NFL: Some have happened through injury as Ryan Mallett is out for the season for the Houston Texans which means Ryan Fitzpatrick is back with the keys to the Offense.

The New York Jets announced that their flip-flopping between Quarter Backs is showing no sign of changing with Geno Smith once again getting the gig ahead of Michael Vick for the Jets game with the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football.

And the change in Washington is less of a surprise with RG3 being benched for Colt McCoy, although it has been said that RG3 remains a huge part of their future in DC. I don't understand the move if that is the case and I struggle to believe Jay Gruden is going to go back to RG3 going into next season if McCoy leads the Redskins to a 4-1 finish for example.


Can Drew Stanton lead the Arizona Cardinals to the Play Offs? That must seem a pretty dumb question considering the Arizona Cardinals have the best record in the NFC right?

But consider this was a second- have the Cardinals looked that good in the past couple of games since Drew Stanton has had to come in and replace Carson Palmer as Quarter Back? The Defense is good, but it can be thrown against, and the Offense hasn't put up more than 14 points in either game and that isn't an encouraging sign.

To make it worse, both San Francisco and Seattle are just two games behind in the NFC West and Arizona have to play their three Divisional rivals and Kansas City in their final five games. The game in Week 13 at the Atlanta Falcons is critical for Arizona if they are to move into the Play Offs and a loss on Sunday could increase the pressure in each passing week and leave the Cardinals looking on the outside once again even if they reach double digits in wins.


Play Off Prediction: At this stage last season, I started putting together a weekly prediction of the teams I think will make the Play Offs in both AFC and NFC. I list them in order of seeding and is created on the ESPN Prediction machine picking the result of all the games going through the remainder of the season.

AFC: New England, Denver, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Miami
NFC: Green Bay, Philadelphia, San Francisco, New Orleans, Dallas and Seattle


Top Ten
1) New England Patriots (9-2): I've had New England at the top of my list for a few weeks and nothing has changed with dominating wins over two top teams in the AFC and a Division leader from the NFC.

2) Green Bay Packers (8-3): The Packers moved up to Number 2 on my list before last week and they host the Patriots this week in what many have called the 'Super Bowl Preview'.

3) Dallas Cowboys (8-3): Dallas showed heart to overcome the Giants on Sunday Night Football, but need to prove themselves against the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving for the NFC East lead.

4) Philadelphia Eagles (8-3): I think the Eagles and Cowboys are very hard to separate at the moment, but we will know a lot more about both teams on Thursday.

5) Denver Broncos (8-3): I allowed Philadelphia to move above the Broncos because I think Denver escaped one against the Miami Dolphins and are yet to get truly going in search of consecutive Super Bowl appearances.

6) Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1): Back to back impressive wins on the road and in control of the AFC North.

7) Baltimore Ravens (7-4): Baltimore were arguably more impressive in their win at the New Orleans Saints than Cincinnati but their 2-3 record in the AFC North is a problem.

8) San Francisco 49ers (7-4): Not the best performance in the win over the Washington Redskins, but the 49ers still have a real chance of winning the NFC West.

9) Seattle Seahawks (7-4): An impressive win over the Arizona Cardinals at home, although I still think Seattle need more from the passing game if they are to win the Division. The pass rush found some life this week which is good news for the Legion of Boom.

10) Arizona Cardinals (9-2): They have the best record in the NFC, but I have dropped the Arizona Cardinals far down the Ranking because the Offense has looked awful the last two weeks against Detroit and Seattle and their remaining schedule is terrible.


Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10): Welcome back to the bottom of the League after a woeful Offensive performance against Indianapolis.

31) New York Jets (2-9): That was downright awful against the Buffalo Bills.

30) Tennessee Titans (2-9): Five straight losses and the Titans look like a team that is in need of a deep rebuild.

29) Oakland Raiders (1-10): Oakland have shown some real heart in the last two games including finally snapping a long losing run.

28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9): I really couldn't believe the way Tampa Bay blew their game in Chicago as mistakes killed them all day... However, they are still in contention to win the NFC South!


Week 13 Picks
It was a pretty poor Week 12 for the picks which resulted in the first negative week since Week 8, but that still means the season is in good shape. With all of the bye weeks completed in the NFL, the remaining five weeks will present a full schedule, although this week is Thanksgiving which will see games split over a four day period.

Three games kick off Week 13 which could have a host of Play Off implications and really clear up the muddy picture in both the AFC and NFC. Hopefully it is also a bounce back week for the picks as I look to avoid back to back losing weeks for the first time this season.


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: These two teams come into Week 13 to open the Thanksgiving Day games with contrasting momentum behind them as Chicago have won two games on the bounce and Detroit have lost two games. However, the Bears were very fortunate in their last win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and still have a lot of work to do to haul in Detroit and Green Bay in the NFC North.

A win on Thursday will give the Bears a chance to get back into the Play Off mix, but they need Jay Cutler to be better than he has for much of the season. With the pressure in his face and the Bears unlikely to really establish Matt Forte to the extent they would like, Chicago are going to need Cutler to find his big Receivers while under some duress and need the Offensive Line to hold up.

There have been times when Cutler seems to hold the ball a little too long, while he can sometimes force the issue which leads to turnovers and that could be a killer for Chicago this week. However, the Quarter Back can use Matt Forte coming out of the backfield to take short passes for big gains to slow down the pass rush and to give himself perhaps a little more time to find Brandon Marshall or Alshon Jeffrey downfield.

The game will represent a chance for Matt Stafford to get the Detroit Offense back on track after failing to score more than 14 points in either of their last two games. Like Cutler, Stafford is likely to be throwing under pressure from a Chicago pass rush that has shown some life recently, but Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate should both win their match ups in the Secondary and help the Lions move the chains.

Joique Bell and Reggie Bush, if healthy, could also establish something of a run game which has been  a struggle for the Lions this season and that will only aid Stafford that much more to make the plays downfield that Detroit have been lacking.

Chicago have been a terrible underdog, but Detroit are not a great favourite when it comes to covering numbers and I do think the Bears seem to be getting a lot of points in this one. However, Chicago have also been a poor 3-12 against the spread in games against teams from the NFC North over the last three seasons and that has taken away some of my excitement about backing them despite the Touchdown head-start the layers are giving them. In that regards, I will limit my pick to the minimum stakes for this one.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: This looks to be a game that could produce the highest amount of points on Thanksgiving and it is the game with most at stake as the NFC East lead is up for grabs.

Both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles could offer plenty of reasons as to why they are the team to back in this one, but I will have a small interest on the Eagles to cover the spread.

So why do I like the Eagles? I do believe both Offenses will have their success in this one with Dallas being very capable of running the ball and Philadelphia capable of the big play downfield that can see them quickly put up points. Turnovers are my main concern for the Eagles as they have been a little loose in that department no matter if Nick Foles or Mark Sanchez has begun at Quarter Back and losing that aspect of the game may shift the edge to the Cowboys.

However, the Eagles have begun to establish their run which could make the Offense more potent and I also think their pass rush may at least be able to stall a couple of drives and that may prove to be the key difference in this game.

Both Secondary's could have a tough time defending the pass, but I do think Sanchez may be throwing from a position of less pressure than Tony Romo and that may help the Eagles to have a chance to win this game outright.

Dallas have been a poor home favourite of three points or less as they are 1-4 against the spread in that spot over the last three seasons and are coming off a very tough road win at the New York Giants. The Cowboys have also gone 0-3 against the spread the last three seasons as the favourite on Thanksgiving Day and a small pick on the Eagles with the points is the call.


Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: Ending the Thanksgiving Day football with a huge NFC West game looks to be a great move from the television companies, especially as the loser of this game between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers is going to have a very tough road to get back into the Play Offs.

These two teams have been the standard of the NFC over the last couple of seasons, but this has been something of a down season for both with rumours of locker room unrest. However, both can put those rumours aside by winning this game and I quite like the San Francisco 49ers to be the team to come through.

While the Seahawks have been able to run the ball effectively through the season, there is little doubt that Marshawn Lynch is feeling something, while the Offensive Line has also lost Max Unger at Center, a key player to get the run established. The horrific play of the Offensive Line has seen Russell Wilson running for his life in recent games and the return of Aldon Smith has sparked the San Francisco pass rush which could see Seattle's drives stalling and the team being forced to punt or settle for Field Goals.

Unger is a loss on the Offensive side of the ball, but Brandon Mebane's absence on the Defensive side could perhaps open up running lanes against the Seahawks, although Bobby Wagner is back at Linebacker and is very good at playing the run.

Even then, San Francisco have surprisingly been inconsistent at running the ball all season with more faith placed in Colin Kaepernick to throw the ball and that may be the case in this one too. Kaepernick's Offensive Line hasn't been the best in pass protection and the Quarter Back may need to follow Wilson's lead and run the ball from the position to keep away from the pass rush that Seattle will send his way.

Kaepernick should be able to have some success throwing the ball as the Seattle Secondary has not been as good without the consistent pass rush they could generate a season ago and I think Kaepernick can have a big game.

The 49ers have won 5 in a row at home against Seattle and they have been good in these games with spreads of a Field Goal either way over the last three seasons. On the other hand I respect the Seahawks record as an underdog in that same time frame, especially as a road underdog of three points or less where they are 4-1 against the spread.

However, I think home field proves to be the key and I will back the 49ers and go against the public for the third straight game on Thanksgiving Day.


Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans Pick: I am not a big fan of laying this many points with Ryan Fitzpatrick back at Quarter Back, but I do think the Houston Texans Defense can make enough plays against Zach Mettenberger and the Tennessee Titans to win this game by more than a Touchdown.

While it has been possible to throw the ball against Houston, JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are going against an Offensive Line that hasn't been that strong in pass protection and against a Quarter Back that isn't the best mover. I expect Mettenberger to be under pressure in this game, while the Titans might not be able to establish the running game to the extent of negating the pass rush Houston will look to produce.

Fitzpatrick is a mistake waiting to happen though and that is a big concern for me in backing the Texans. He has to play a clean game so not to give Tennessee short fields to work with or end drives without points and that has been an issue for Fitzpatrick through his career.

On the other hand, a returning Arian Foster could bust open some huge yards on the ground in this one and keep Fitzpatrick in a comfortable position on the field and help the Texans get back to 0.500 in the League. Third and short is wear Fitzpatrick should have some success, but the downfield threat might have disappeared a little with Ryan Mallett's injury.

However, the Titans haven't been a great underdog in recent seasons and Houston are 4-1 against the spread when set as the favourite this season. The Texans can get another Divisional win over one of their rivals in this one.


Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Following all the terrible weather that hit Buffalo last week, the home town Bills will be able to play in their usual home stadium after Monday night saw them use the Detroit Lions Ford Field as a 'home'.

That didn't stop the Bills from crushing the New York Jets, but might also have seen them perhaps being a little over-rated for this game as they are laying more than a Field Goal against the Cleveland Browns.

I don't think the Browns are as good as some may think and the 7-4 record would indicate, but Josh Gordon's return is huge and Buffalo have regularly failed to pick themselves up from a Divisional win. In fact, they have failed to cover the spread in their next game 6 times over the last three seasons.

Gordon should be able to make some plays for Cleveland that keeps them competitive and the Browns have been a strong underdog in this spot in recent years. On the other hand, Buffalo have been just 2-4 against the spread when favoured and I will take the points.


San Diego Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Week 13 has been full of games with big Play Off implications and this game is no different as two teams with 7-4 records in the AFC meet. The winner of this game will feel they have a great chance of at least earning a Wild Card spot, while the loser will find it incredibly difficult to bounce back in the last month of the season.

The problem the San Diego Chargers are going to have is an Offensive Line that has struggled to protect Philip Rivers in recent weeks going against a fierce Baltimore pass rush that thrives on getting to the Quarter Back. The Ravens have been tough to run against all season which means Rivers is likely to be in some obvious passing situations and won't have the chance to establish the run to slow down the pass rush.

Baltimore's Secondary has been susceptible to the pass with injuries affecting them, but the pressure up front may help hide those problems.

Justin Forsett may pick up from where he left up on Monday Night Football and gash a Chargers Defense giving up 4.6 yards per carry and it could be tough for the Chargers to stay with Baltimore. If they commit to stopping the run, Torrey Smith and Steve Smith can stretch the field and be found for long passing plays.

Travelling across the country for an early start is tough for San Diego too who were blown out in Miami in that spot earlier this season. They also face a Baltimore team that is 6-2 against the spread as the favourite this season and who are 4-1 against the spread at home where they have been very strong in recent years.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The AFC North has dominated the NFC South this season and this game looks to be in a great spot for Andy Dalton, that is that it won't have the vast media coverage in which he has struggled.

The third road game in a row is tough for the Bengals, but Tampa Bay have been awful at home this season where they are 0-5 against the spread this season and just 7-13 over the last three seasons. Tampa Bay just have been killing themselves with foolish mistakes and I think the Dalton to AJ Green combination can have another big game.

The Bengals do have bigger games to come, but they can't afford to drop any game at the moment in the tough AFC North and I think the dominance of this Division over the NFC South will show up again.


New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Another NFC South versus AFC North game in Week 13 and I do think there is going to be a time when the New Orleans Saints come back to life... Just not this week!

The Saints have regularly been a little weaker on the road than at home and, unless we have entered the twilight zone, it is hard to see them snap their losing run here. They face a Pittsburgh Steelers team whose Defense will have the returning Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor thanks to the bye week they enjoyed last week and Mike Tomlin has been strong preparing off a bye.

The Offense should have a lot of success doing what they want in this game- Le'Veon Bell may pick up from Justin Forsett left off and run the ball to open up the passing lanes for Ben Roethlisberger to hit Receivers downfield.

Playing against Drew Brees also seems to excite Big Ben and I think he will have a strong game, while Brees has made some big errors at critical times that have proved costly. Brees should have a decent game even against some of the returning starters on the Pittsburgh side of the ball, but it is hard to trust New Orleans with the way they have played the last few weeks.

New Orleans are just 9-14 against the spread in road games over the last three seasons and Pittsburgh have been strong off a bye which makes the home team the call.


Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: This is almost a must win game for the Arizona Cardinals as far as I am concerned with some tough games left on their schedule and the confidence taking a knock last week in the loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

However, the Defense looks very good for Arizona and I expect that unit to show up again, while the Offense won't have a much better match up than against the Falcons. Drew Stanton has not played that well since Carson Palmer was lost for the season, but facing Detroit and Seattle is a much more difficult task than Atlanta and I expect Stanton to have one of his better games.

With the pressure Arizona have begun to get up front, Matt Ryan might not have the time to look downfield for the likes of Julio Jones and Roddy White, although both have tough match ups against Antonio Cromartie and Patrick Peterson. The Falcons won't be able to establish much of a running threat either and it could be tough for the Falcons to move the chains consistently.

Arizona have gone 4-3 against the spread when coming off a Divisional loss over the last three seasons and they can get back on track with a vital road win in the Georgia Dome.


New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers Pick: This is the game that most people have to be looking forward to in Week 13 of the NFL season and, surprisingly, it is also the first time that Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady will oppose one another at Quarter Back.

Two of the elite Quarter Backs in the NFL might meet for a second time in a matter of months of the predictions of the experts come off and both New England and Green Bay reach the Super Bowl. At the moment, neither team will be looking that far ahead as they look to ensure they are in a position to win their respective Divisions and then Conferences.

Both Rodgers and Brady should have success throwing the ball in this one and both are going to be backed by an effective running game that will only open things downfield for these two Quarter Backs.

However, I do think home advantage is going to be critical in determining the winner of the game and I believe the recent move to put Clay Matthews in as Inside Linebacker has helped Green Bay generate more of a pass rush than New England will get. The Green Bay Offensive Line has protected Aaron Rodgers pretty well in recent games despite carrying injuries and this may be the reason the Packers come through.

I also do think the game is more important for the Packers than New England with Green Bay trying to fend off Detroit and catch Arizona in the NFC. I respect the way the Patriots seem to gear themselves up for being a small road favourite, but Green Bay are a very strong home team and have performed very well as the favourite this season.

Two elite Quarter Backs should lead their teams to big performances and it should be a lot of fun, but I like Green Bay to make home field count and lay a big marker for the rest of the season.


Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos will be playing a huge game with Play Off implications down the line on Sunday Night Football and I think Peyton Manning can help his team win this as a small favourite.

Jamaal Charles should have a strong day running the ball for Kansas City as long as this game remains competitive, but I always wonder what the Chiefs can do if they fall into a big hole and have to throw the ball. Alex Smith is a capable Quarter Back, but doesn't have the strongest Receiving corps and they have struggled over the last eighteen months once Denver have control of the game.

With a returning Julius Thomas and CJ Anderson showing he can run the ball effectively in Week 12, Denver's Offense should be able to put up enough points to win this game. Anderson has a great match up against this Chiefs Defense and that should only open things up for Peyton Manning to make the big plays downfield.

Denver have won 5 in a row in the series and have won their last 3 visits to Arrowhead so they will know what to expect. The Broncos are also 10-4 against the spread in Divisional games over the last three seasons as Peyton Manning has ensured his team have got the better of these games for the most part.

I have to respect Kansas City's performance as an underdog this season, especially as a small home underdog, but the Broncos will be tough to rein in if they get into a double digit lead, for example, and I like Denver to win this game and cover.

MY PICKS: Chicago Bears + 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles + 3 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 7 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 4 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 1 Point @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Week 12: 3-6, - 4.36 Units
Week 115-4, + 1.20 Units
Week 104-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 94-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 81-8, - 13 Units
Week 78-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 62-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 53-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 44-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 38-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 25-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 13-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 201450-46-2, + 6.90 Units
Season 201386-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012- 4.78 Units

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