Weekend Football Picks 2014 (November 22-24)

The international break has brought more misery on the injury front for Louis Van Gaal and Manchester United as news broke of Daley Blind, David De Gea and Angel Di Maria all returning to training with separate issues. The Blind injury seems to be the one shrouded in most mystery as it was initially reported he will be missing for six months, but later clarified by Van Gaal that it shouldn't be as long as that although there is no real timetable set for the Dutch international to return to the squad.

The De Gea and Di Maria knocks should not keep them out of the side, but defensive injuries remain and the surprise move for Radamel Falcao before the transfer deadline has not worked out so far with the Colombian out for at least another two weeks. The busy festive period where games come thick and fast don't exactly fill me with the expectation that Falcao will be able to take part too often and the gamble may not have paid off despite how highly I rate the forward.

I am no longer sure what is ailing Phil Jones and Jonny Evans to the extent that neither player seems ready to return this weekend, while Marcos Rojo might not return before Christmas.


One piece of good news for United is that they haven't fallen too far from the top four places, although I would dearly love to see them string together a run of wins in an inconsistent season to this point. Louis Van Gaal may have changed his mind about being judged in three months, but I am looking for improvements from the club now even if they have to come through a horrific string of injuries.


Talking about injuries, avoiding them was one of the main reasons that Liverpool, along with the lack of participating in any competition in Europe, that they were able to mount such a strong title challenge last season. Losing Luis Suarez was always going to be a big problem, but the injury to Daniel Sturridge which has restricted him to three Premier League games has arguably been more important to highlight their problems this season.

Sturridge has been ruled out until the New Year and the signings made by Brendan Rodgers have failed to fill the void left by losing their two top scorers from last season. That has seen Liverpool drop down the table and struggle in the Champions League and even a top four place may be slipping from their grasp after all the positives the fans had going into this campaign.

I was convinced they missed their best chance to win the top flight title last season since they last won it in 1990 and I think there is an awful long road ahead for Liverpool to get into such a position again with the last campaign almost being a 'perfect storm' for them.


The best news coming out of the international break was the fact that there will be no more until March 2015.


Chelsea v West Brom Pick: After coming from behind to beat Liverpool at Anfield in their last League game, Chelsea have hardened as favourites to win the Premier League title this season, but don't expect Jose Mourinho to be congratulating his side just yet.

The manager won't want his men to take their foot off the pedal and will expect Chelsea to add another three points to the board, even though they have an important Champions League game coming up during the week. Mourinho won't worry about that just yet with Chelsea in a strong position in the Group, and it would be a real surprise if Chelsea don't play a full strength team in this one.

West Brom have been a mixed bag recently with some impressive performances mixed in with some really poor ones and they are a hard team to get a full read on. There seems to be a real reliance on the pace of the forward players to help Alan Irvine's men surprise teams, but Chelsea have been playing very well this season and I don't believe there will be much of a surprise this weekend.

Goals haven't been a problem for Chelsea and it is hard to imagine how West Brom will keep up if the home side are firing on all cylinders. The international break does ruin some of the momentum that is picked up and can be tough for teams to 'get up' with players returning from far off destinations, but Chelsea have a deep squad and have had the benefit of seeing the likes of John Terry, Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa getting vital rest over the last two weeks.

While West Brom have made it surprisingly difficult for Chelsea in recent visits to Stamford Bridge with a couple of close losses before the draw last season, this Chelsea team is full of confidence and I would expect to see them win by a couple of goals at least.


Everton v West Ham United Pick: I have a lot of respect for the performances that West Ham United have produced on a regular basis this season and they have the forward players to give Everton a lot of problems in this one. However, I also believe Everton are a side on the up and this should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend which should produce goals at both ends of the pitch.

West Ham United have scored and conceded in every away games they have played this season as their attacking performances have finally got the fans fully behind Sam Allardyce, although that always seems to be a tense relationship on the brink of breaking up.

Those performances are likely to continue as they look to expose some of the defensive problems that Everton have been having for much of the season. Those have improved recently with three straight clean sheets at Goodison Park, but West Ham have the pace and an eye for goal that should see them penetrate an injury hit defence that Roberto Martinez has.

On the other hand, West Ham have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League and Everton certainly have the firepower to become the latest side to do that. Take away the goalless draw with Swansea and Everton have scored at least twice in every other home game they have played this season, while reaching three goals in 4 of their last 5 here.

As I said, I would be surprised if this isn't one of the more entertaining games of the weekend and I would expect both Everton and West Ham United to score at least once. However, I think Everton's success against West Ham can see them win for the fifth time in a row against them and I believe there is some worth in backing the home side to win a a game in which both teams score at least once.


Manchester City v Swansea Pick: The last set of games between the international breaks were vastly disappointing for Manchester City and a similar run of poor form between now and March will surely end the reign of Manuel Pellegrini as manager of the club. Even with a hugely important Champions League game against Bayern Munich to come on Tuesday, Pellegrini can't afford for his side to slip further behind Chelsea in the race for the Premier League title this weekend.

The expectation will be that Chelsea will beat West Brom at home which means anything less than a win for Manchester City might already be too big a gap to bridge for the Champions of England. A returning David Silva would provide a big boost for the side, although will Pellegrini risk the Spanish playmaker or save him for the game with Bayern on Tuesday?

I'd be extremely surprised if Pellegrini was to under-estimate Swansea who have already been to Manchester and won this season so I would expect a very strong line up to be picked in a bid to secure a morale boosting victory. It won't come easy against Swansea, but Manchester City will at least know that their visitors are a team that likes playing their football so there could be some spaces to exploit.

The pace in forward areas for Swansea could cause a lot of problems for Manchester City who have looked nervous at times in recent games, especially if Vincent Kompany cannot be passed fit, but I also think Manchester City are a better team than they have showed of late.

The form might not be great, but Pellegrini has had two weeks to try and tinker with things and I expect Manchester City can win this game and build confidence for the big game against Bayern Munich in a few days time. Swansea should have some chances to cause a surprise, but Manchester City might have too much and continue their dominance of their visitors at home by securing a win by a couple of goals or more.


Arsenal v Manchester United Pick: Both Arsenal and Manchester United will see the other as a real rival in the bid to finish in the top four of the Premier League this season and neither will want to slip up in this game. In recent games, Arsene Wenger has definitely asked his team to play with more caution than you would normally expect and I think that has contributed to the fact that Arsenal have failed to win any of their last 6 against Manchester United.

Even when the teams met during the David Moyes era last season, Arsenal definitely played within themselves in two games against United and they didn't deserve more than the one point they earned in those games.

With the way that both defences have played in recent games and the injuries that both teams have in that area of the pitch, there might be a feeling that both Wenger and Louis Van Gaal will play with more caution, but that is hard to do with the attacking talent on display.

Alexis Sanchez and Angel Di Maria were the two big time recruits brought in by these two clubs and the former Barcelona and Real Madrid stars are likely to provide the key in producing a winner in this game. Both have made very good starts to life in the Premier League and might be in for special attention from the opposition managers, but both have shown they are capable of producing the bit of magic to inspire their teams.

It could also mean that both Wenger and Van Gaal decide attack is the best form of defence in a game like this and it could produce an open encounter that the top clubs have been a part of in recent seasons. A draw could be considered a good result for both teams and I do think both managers would accept that if offered to them now, but I would still be surprised if we see a game that doesn't produce chances.

Recent games between the teams have seen the last three games produce two goals or fewer, while the 3 of the last 4 at the Emirates Stadium have seen a surprising lack of goals too. However, I would be surprised if those trends continue with the mistakes both teams have made in defence and the injuries that both are dealing with and I believe there could be at least three goals scored, while the 2-2 scoreline has proved popular in the Premier League all season and has every chance of hitting here.


Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: Goals have been something of a problem for Liverpool in recent weeks and they won't have seen the mood improved when hearing that Daniel Sturridge is going to be missing until the New Year. With big games ahead, Brendan Rodgers has to find a way for his team to be more competitive at both ends of the field as they return to Selhurst Park where things went spectacularly wrong at the end of last season.

On that occasion, Crystal Palace fought back from 0-3 down in the final fifteen minutes to earn a 3-3 draw and effectively end Liverpool's chances of winning the Premier League title. Liverpool haven't played up to the level that saw them go 0-3 up in that game, but defensively they have looked vulnerable and Crystal Palace have to feel they can cause some problems.

However, the Eagles didn't go into the international break with much confidence having lost 4 of their last 5 Premier League games including back to back home losses. Goals haven't been much of an issue for Palace at home in the Premier League, but they have been conceding far too many when faced with better teams and Liverpool will certainly feel they should be included in that category.

I would be surprised if both managers don't set their teams up to have a go in this one and this could be a lively Super Sunday game. An early goal could really open the game up and I am surprised that the layers feel it is odds against that we will see at least three goals in this one.


Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Emmanuel Adebayor insists he was misquoted about Tottenham Hotspur enjoying playing away from White Hart Lane more than they do at home, but there is no doubt results have been more positive on their travels of late. Mauricio Pochettino had already criticised the lack of width at home this season and there is a genuine feeling that Tottenham Hotspur would rather play away than at home.

They have a chance to prove that on Sunday as they visit Hull City who are dealing with a long injury list and have also been out of form heading into the international break. That has seen Hull City drop down the League table and Spurs will feel they have the pace and creativity to cause more problems for Hull in this one.

At home, Tottenham are asked to push a lot more than they seem to be comfortable with and that is unlikely to be the case this weekend with the onus on Hull to attack. Steve Bruce may also feel there are some vulnerabilities that can be exposed in the Tottenham team considering the form of the North London club and that might produce a surprisingly entertaining game.

Both teams will want to get forward and cause problems for the other and there hasn't been too much of a shortage of goals in games involving Hull City and Tottenham Hotspur this season. The home/away games respectively are averaging 3 goals per game and I don't think either manager will lack belief in their own side securing three important points this weekend.

That should produce a lively game that may end up with at least three goals shared by the sides and I will back that to happen in the second live game on Sunday afternoon.

MY PICKS: Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Everton to Win @ 3.75 Bwin (1 Unit)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.09 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.78 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Hull City-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

November Update: 5-12, - 11.04 Units (32 Units, - 34.5% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 28-58, - 36.99 Units (139 Units Staked, - 26.61% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)