Midweek Football Picks 2015 (February 10-11)

Another full round of Premier League football takes place during the week as the third-seventh teams continue to play musical chairs with the Champions League places behind Chelsea and Manchester City. In fact, you might even say that Manchester City could be dragged back towards the fight behind them if they can't get out of this poor run of form they are currently enjoying, although the return of Yaya Toure and Wilfried Bony from the African Cup of Nations should provide a valuable boost to their side.


Arsenal v Leicester City Pick: Has he or hasn't he? That is the question surrounding Nigel Pearson who was supposedly fired on Sunday evening but is still taking charge of this game at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday. Some are suggesting that he was fired by one member of the board and reinstated by another which just goes to show the mess at Leicester City, who are also bottom of the Premier League and beginning to see a gap form above them.

Pearson just seems to be surrounded in controversy after an altercation with a fan earlier in the season and then seemingly grabbing James McArthur by the throat in the home loss against Crystal Palace on Saturday. The manager laughed off the issue, but he is seemingly no longer in control of his own emotions and I don't know how his players are supposed to respond to him at the moment.

The fact they are going to play an Arsenal team that will be desperate to erase the memories of the North London Derby defeat on Saturday only makes this an even more difficult prospect for Leicester City. Arsenal thumped Aston Villa 5-0 in their last home game in the Premier League and they have won 7 in a row at the Emirates Stadium.

Of those 7 games, 5 have been won by at least two goals and Leicester City were comfortably beaten at Old Trafford in their last away games. They will have a tough time dealing with the pace that Arsenal have in forward areas and Alexis Sanchez is also available again which will give Arsenal more attacking options.

Arsenal have scored at least three goals in 3 of their last 4 home games in the Premier League and reaching that number again should give them a win by at least two goals in my opinion.


Sunderland v Queens Park Rangers Pick: Harry Redknapp has gone and now top scorer Charlie Austin has been ruled out until the next round of Premier League games as things go from bad to worse for Queens Park Rangers. A late Southampton winner on Saturday will only have increased the negative mood around the camp, but QPR have to know they are far from cut off in the bottom three and earning something, anything, from this trip to the Stadium of Light might give them the boost they need.

However, Sunderland have been a tough team to beat all season as their 12 League draws highlights, but now have the goals of Jermain Defoe which can help them turn some of those into wins. Defoe has scored in their last two Premier League games and can have a big impact in a game against the club that was desperate to sign him last summer.

Defoe is likely to have chances in this game considering the messy way Queens Park Rangers have defended away from home and any team that is conceding at least two goals in virtually every away League game is going to find it hard to win games. Sunderland were comfortable home winners against Burnley a couple of weeks ago in the League and I do think they are going to be able to back that up with another win in this game.

I can't imagine Queens Park Rangers will lose every away game they play this season, but this looks a big ask for them to avoid a loss without Charlie Austin and I think the home side do earn the vital three points.


Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is a big game for both Brendan Rodgers and Mauricio Pochettino as they look to guide Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur respectively to a vital three points in the race for Champions League places. It looks like being a really tough fight to the end of the season to finish in the top four, so the points gained against rivals could prove to be the pivotal ones when it is all said and done.

For the long unbeaten run that Liverpool have put together, there might be some disappointment that they haven't turned more draws into wins, especially at Anfield. Winning just 3 of their last 10 games at home in all competitions is not the kind of run that will see Liverpool finish in the top four this season, although the performances have suggested that there is still more to come from this side.

The return of Daniel Sturridge should be a major boost for Rodgers and Liverpool, but the manager hasn't risked starting the England international just yet. It might be time to call on Sturridge in this one against a Tottenham Hotspur defence that does offer up chances, although Harry Kane is the form player in the contest and will look to exploit some of Liverpool's own vulnerabilities at the back.

In saying that, Liverpool have kept four clean sheets in a row in the Premier League, albeit against teams they might have expected to outside of Everton, so confidence may be improving. However, there are chances being created and Kane is in the form to exploit those, while Christian Eriksen is a big danger from set-pieces.

Both teams will have opportunities to score, although I tend to favour Liverpool but only just. The 2-1 scoreline continues to be a big feature in Tottenham Hotspur games and this looks like another game that could potentially finish that way to either team.


Chelsea v Everton Pick: A seven point lead has been opened by Chelsea at the top of the Premier League and they can really keep the pressure up on Manchester City by beating an out of form Everton at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday. Chelsea have been playing well enough to reach the League Cup Final, although they haven't been as dominant as they were earlier in the season when they were beaten teams very comfortably.

They had to dig deep to overcome Aston Villa on Saturday and also were beaten by Bradford in the FA Cup at Stamford Bridge so there is hope for Everton, although the latter have to play a lot better than they did in the Merseyside Derby.

While Everton did win their last away game at Crystal Palace, they were outplayed for much of that game and were fortunate winners, and the side have taken some heavy losses away from Goodison Park this season.

Chelsea have usually been given a difficult test by Everton, even when they visit Stamford Bridge, and Roberto Martinez has to use that confidence for this game. However, this Everton side have struggled so often defensively and I think Chelsea will expose those issues and come through with a win by a couple of goals.


Manchester United v Burnley Pick: I don't trust Manchester United to win too many away games at the moment as Louis Van Gaal continues to struggle to find the right balance between attack and defence in those games. However, it has been a different matter at Old Trafford where, Southampton aside, Manchester United have been winning plenty of games over the last few months.

They have also scored a lot of goals at Old Trafford once they find their groove and this looks a huge task for Burnley to repeat their magic of their last visit to Manchester when they earned a 2-2 draw at the Etihad Stadium. Burnley have been conceding a lot of goals in recent games and they look a squad that is destined to return to the Championship after dropping 2-0 leads against Crystal Palace and West Brom in recent games.

Burnley work hard and try to make life difficult for opponents so they have rarely been dismissed easily away from home, but they do have a tough time of it and this is a team that has conceded at least two goals in their last 6 away games in all competitions.

With Manchester United scoring at least three goals in 5 of their last 7 home games in all competitions including against Leicester City and Hull City, teams of a similar level to Burnley, I expect Van Gaal's men to come through with the three points fairly comfortably. If Manchester United reach three goals again, I would expect them to win this one by a couple of goals, a scenario they have reached in 5 of their last 7 games at Old Trafford.


Southampton v West Ham United Pick: I think Southampton look very short in the markets considering they have only won 2 of their last 8 home games in all competitions and have been beaten in their last two home games. They huffed and puffed against Swansea in a 0-1 home loss ten days ago so the odds on quotes look very short against a West Ham United team that has been tough to beat.

Both Chelsea and Liverpool had 2-0 home wins over West Ham United in the Premier League in recent weeks, but this is a team that has all of their strikers back to health and they showed they can create chances in their game against Manchester United. Southampton have a very strong defensive record, but they have only kept 2 clean sheets in their last 8 home games (both in their wins) and I don't think the West Ham attacking instincts will be reined in by Sam Allardyce in this one.

The pace and power in the forward positions will give Southampton problems, but I expect the makeshift back four of the Hammers to be tested considerably more than Manchester United did for much of that game on Sunday. The Saints have plenty of pace in their own forward positions and that pace and movement should create chances for the home team who need to find more consistency at St Mary's if they are to achieve a Champions League spot.

This should be an entertaining game and I do think there will be goals at both ends, although Southampton may just be able to come through with the vital three points. Backing the home team to win a game in which both teams score looks a big price and I think it presents a better chance of backing Southampton considering I do think West Ham are capable of scoring here.


Crystal Palace v Newcastle United Pick: There is going to be a lot of tension in this game surrounding Alan Pardew as both sets of supporters are going to let the manager of Crystal Palace know how they feel. Fortunately for Pardew that this game is taking place at Selhurst Park during the week as Crystal Palace have one of the louder home supports in the Premier League and the Newcastle United fans could be a little tired from a long journey to the capital.

That won't stop the Newcastle fans sending down their abuse towards Pardew who they never really liked even during his time as manager of the club and I think it was best for everyone that Pardew moved on. He is much loved at Crystal Palace and the side have responded on the pitch with a lot of wins as they progressed in the FA Cup and moved out of danger in the Premier League.

There is still more work to be done for Crystal Palace, but Alan Pardew should be able to tell his players exactly what to expect from this game having bought the majority of the players his side will be facing. The counter-attacking of Newcastle United should give them chances to exploit Crystal Palace in this one, but the home team have a lot of pace in the forward areas to create chances of their own.

Both of the games between these teams have produced a lot of goals this season and there is every chance this could be the third one that does the same. As much as Pardew knows about Newcastle United, he will want his Crystal Palace to win this game desperately and that might mean a more open game than the layers are expecting. There has been a lack of goals in some of the Newcastle United away games in recent weeks, particularly as they have struggled for goals, but they scored three times at Hull City and have had a lot of success at Selhurst Park.

Crystal Palace may have lost 0-1 against Everton, but I don't think anyone knows how the home team didn't score in that one and I think the odds against quote on there being at least three goals is worth backing.

MY PICKS: Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sunderland @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.08 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet365 (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Southampton to Win @ 3.90 Coral (1 Unit)
Crystal Palace-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.38 Coral (2 Units)

February Update: 2-4, - 4.60 Units (12 Units Staked, - 38.33% Yield)

January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 80-120-2, - 29.42 Units (346 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)