Miami Tennis Picks 2015 (March 29th)

It was an extremely busy day in Miami at Crandon Park on Saturday and one in which the tournament organisers have to be very happy about getting through with all of the matches on the order of play being completed.

The big names all managed to get through their matches, although Novak Djokovic needed three sets to see off Martin Klizan in his first match here. Other players like Serena Williams, Caroline Wozniacki and Venus Williams also progressed and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga made a good return to the Tour with a three set win in his first match of 2015.

The second week of the tournament will be interesting as players look to make a final deep run on the hard courts before the four month break from tournaments on this surface. The clay court season will begin in eight days time and the run up to the second Grand Slam of the season will take over the thoughts of fans and players over the coming two months.


I love the clay court season, but have to admit that I am very much enjoying the tournament in Miami so far with plenty of winners coming in after the disappointment of Indian Wells. Things can quickly change with a week of tennis still to be played at Crandon Park, but the first few days have been highly effective and I hope that the form can continue.

On Sunday the Masters event moves onto the Third Round and the Premier Event will complete that Round and there is plenty of tennis on the order of play for the day. I was baffled by the decision to have the Juan Monaco-Guillermo Garcia-Lopez match as the second match in the evening session rather than the Santiago Giraldo-Andy Murray or Fernando Verdasco-Rafael Nadal contests which both would surely be more appealing to the fans buying evening session tickets.

I know there is a big Latin community in this part of the world that will get very much behind the South American Monaco, but they have an affiliation with the Spanish too and seeing a Verdasco-Nadal match would have produced a huge atmosphere too.

The two matches I suggested would have gotten the fans very much excited to see two big names against two players they could get behind, but it is the surprising choice of match that will be given the full exposure.


Jack Sock - 2.5 games v Dominic Thiem: This is perhaps not the Third Round match that most would have expected to see at the Miami Masters, but it is not a surprise to me that Jack Sock has been set as the favourite.

As much potential as Dominic Thiem has shown, he is still very inconsistent and Jack Sock has played well in his first two tournaments returning to the Tour following an injury lay-off. The backhand is still a big weakness for the American and could be an area that Thiem really prospers, but I think Sock has the more consistent serve and can pick up 'cheaper' points during the match.

Some of the defeats Thiem has suffered over the last few weeks have been disappointing too, although the two wins he has picked up this week have been solid, especially the three set win over Feliciano Lopez.

However, Sock has also been impressive and I think he will have too much for Thiem at this moment and on this surface and I will back him to win this one 76, 64.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Tomas Berdych has gotten the better of Bernard Tomic in previous meetings and even though the latter has improved on the Tour, I think he has a couple of injury issues that might need to be looked after following the end of his stay in Miami.

Tomic pulled out of Indian Wells thanks to his infected wisdom tooth swelling up one side of his face and also has a few problems with his back and he will need to put both of these ailments to the back of his mind if he is to secure the upset.

The Second Round match that Tomas Berdych played against a young potential star in Hyeon Chung was more difficult for the top ten player than he might have expected, but he still battled through. There was probably some uncertainty as to how Chung would play which didn't help Berdych, but he will be fully aware what Tomic is going to bring to the court.

As I have said, Tomic looks improved as he is being pushed by two younger Australian men that are picking up plenty of positive press, but if he is not quite at the top of his game, I would expect Berdych to come through 63. 64.


Juan Monaco v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: The last match scheduled for the Sunday order of play in Miami is between Juan Monaco and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and I am certain both players see this as a great chance to reach the Fourth Round of a Masters event.

I'd expect both players will be looking forward to the clay court season which begins next week, and both could find themselves in the Seeding at the French Open at the end of May if they can maintain their form.

Garcia-Lopez is a solid player that doesn't do anything spectacularly, but is fairly consistent across the board with the biggest weakness being the serve. That aspect of tennis is not a strength for Monaco either so I am expecting a lot of rallies and long points between these two who are very familiar with one another having met 11 times previously on the Tour.

The stronger form has been coming from Monaco in recent weeks and I think he can outlast Garcia-Lopez in a competitive match. The Argentine will have to stay focused if he is going to do that having suffered a couple of lapses in concentration in a couple of matches over the last few weeks including in his First Round win over Ruben Bemelmans, but I like Monaco to come through in three sets.


Svetlana Kuznetsova v Angelique Kerber: Angelique Kerber got the better of Svetlana Kuznetsova when they met in Dubai last month, but I am looking for the veteran Russian to overturn that result and move into the Fourth Round in Miami on Sunday.

There is little doubt to me that Kerber's confidence can't be in a great place having suffered a lot of losses in 2015 and that has seen her slip down to Number 15 in the World Rankings. She has been inconsistent and lost some surprising matches during the first three months of the year.

However, it has to be noted that Kuznetsova is also very inconsistent these days as she tries to play at the level that led her to Grand Slam titles. There are times she gets back to that level, but you can also see the frustration when things don't go exactly to plan which makes this a closer match than some may perhaps think.

Kuznetsova has to try and limit the unforced errors that blighted her in her defeat to Sloane Stephens in Indian Wells, but she has at least won a few more matches than Kerber which could be a key to this match. The confidence in the clutch moments might help the Russian come through, although it could take three sets to separate these players.


Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Sara Errani: I am clearly a big fan of Garbine Muguruza and am just waiting for her to win a really big title and that means looking for the Spaniard to show a little more consistency in her performances. She has all the tools to reach the very pinnacle of women's tennis and I expect Muguruza to get a lot of support from the Miami crowd.

Facing Sara Errani is never easy with the Italian capable of getting a lot of balls back in play that can frustrate opponents and extract errors as players try to hit closer and closer to the lines. However, Muguruza has the power to overwhelm Errani in this match and has shown that off the last two times these players have met on the Tour with two convincing wins.

While Errani has won a title in Rio De Janeiro this season, it does feel she is on the way down the mountain after hitting a peak in her performances around eighteen months ago. The courts are not the quickest in Miami which will give the Italian a chance, but Muguruza should be too strong and too good for her.

There is every chance that Muguruza wins a very lop-sided set which gives her the chance to cover this number even if the match was go into a third set and I do like the Spanish player to move into the Fourth Round with a 61, 46, 63 win under her belt.


Johanna Larsson + 4.5 games v Sloane Stephens: Sloane Stephens might have turned a corner in her season over the last month with a decent run in Indian Wells followed by a couple of strong wins in Miami. She is a big favourite to beat Johanna Larsson, but I expect the latter to at least offer a challenge to the young American in this Third Round match.

Larsson put together a very impressive win over Lucie Safarova in the Second Round and she has a decent kicker of a serve that could give Stephens a few things to think about. The Swede also crushed Stephens when they met in Acapulco last month and also stunned her at the US Open last season so Larsson won't be intimidated about this match.

Of course much will still depend on Stephens and how she approaches this match- if she finds the right balance between aggression and defence and also cuts out the silly mistakes she is liable to make, I would think she can beat Larsson for the first time. Stephens' two wins this week have been impressively one-sided, but I think Larsson gives her the biggest challenge so far and I can definitely see the lower Ranked player taking a set in the match.

With this amount of games being given to Larsson, I think taking a set might be enough to help Larsson at least cover even in a losing effort and I will back her to do so.


Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: She might be Number 6 in the World Rankings and one of the players that fans love the most on the WTA Tour, but I still think Ana Ivanovic might be looking at her 2015 season so far with some disappointment. No titles won and an early exit at the Australian Open and Indian Wells, the two biggest tournaments played so far, is not what was expected of Ivanovic coming into the new season.

You don't get many 'easy' matches at these type of events, but Ivanovic does match up well against Sabine Lisicki and could take advantage of the German who had a long ten days at Indian Wells last week. That run was something of a surprise considering the poor form that Lisicki has displayed in 2015 and might be the confidence boost that she needs to take going forward.

However there could be some physical issues having come through a long Second Round match and Lisicki will be faced with plenty of power coming from the other side of the court which does give her some problems.

Losing a tight first set to Ana Ivanovic might take away some of the belief that Lisicki has in beating the Serb and I would then expect Ivanovic to come through 75, 63.

MY PICKS: Jack Sock - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Monaco @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Miami Update: 14-7, + 12.06 Units (42 Units Staked, + 28.71% Yield)