Weekend Football Picks (April 4-6)

I think I had made my position fairly clear already that I was not expecting to have a winning season from the football season after a pretty miserable first half of the season. However, things had at least turned around to form some respectability of late and March proved to be a huge month.

After being in the red for most of the season, March has seen the football picks get back into the black and the key is to make sure the next two months go the same way. Instead of patting myself on the back for finding the right matches, I have instead focused on making sure that this can be built upon and produce another decent season for the picks.


I have wrote a small piece about the ten managers that could replace Manuel Pellegrini as Manchester City manager this summer if the expected change is made at the Etihad Stadium. I am going to write a small piece in praise of Louis Van Gaal in the next couple of days which will hopefully be of interest and is also a change in my personal mindset about the Dutch manager at Old Trafford.

To read the piece about Manuel Pellegrini, you can click here.


Arsenal v Liverpool Pick: It was a big game for Liverpool two weeks ago and losing to Manchester United means it is looking a big task for them to get back into the top four, especially if they failed to win at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday. Unfortunately for Brendan Rodgers, Liverpool have a lot of injury issues and suspensions that could make it difficult for the manager to pick the team he would have liked to for this game.

Martin Skrtel and Steven Gerrard are both definitely out, but the likes of Raheem Sterling, Adam Lallana and Daniel Sturridge would be huge misses for Liverpool as they try to snap Arsenal's impressive run of form.

There are still times that Arsenal fail to convince fully, but they are a team that is getting healthier through the squad and winning 8 straight Premier League games at home has to give them confidence. They are arguably the most in-form team in the Premier League after Liverpool's loss to Manchester United and Arsenal will come out of the international break looking to put pressure on Manchester City by moving ahead of them in the League table.

The early kick off after the international games could be an issue for both teams with players returning from all over, but Arsenal will be happier from what they have seen their squad get through over the last couple of weeks. With Sterling picking up a knock on international duty, Liverpool can't say the same and I think the edge in this match does come down in favour of the home side.

Arsenal should really have held out and beaten Liverpool at Anfield in December and they did beat them twice here last season. On current form, Arsenal have to be the pick at the prices and I will back them to win this one and virtually wrap up a top four place while perhaps denting Liverpool's bid irreversibly.


Manchester United v Aston Villa Pick: I have to give Louis Van Gaal the utmost credit for the way he got his tactics spot on in the game at Anfield which led to a 1-2 win for Manchester United against Liverpool. That means Manchester United have had two very good performances in consecutive matches and had to be a little annoyed that they would have to wait two weeks before they took to the field again.

The wins over Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool are huge when it comes to deciding Champions League places in the Premier League this season, but Manchester United can't afford to lose focus in this one. Dropping points to Aston Villa would be a huge blow considering Manchester City, Chelsea and Everton are the next fixtures that Manchester United will have to negotiate.

It would also be a big surprise if Manchester United dropped points this weekend because they have scored plenty of goals at Old Trafford and saved their best performances, outside of the last one, for their home ground. Their last 7 wins at Old Trafford have all come by at least two goals and Manchester United have really gotten the better of Aston Villa in recent years at this Stadium.

The last 4 wins have come by a combined 14-2 margin and all of those wins have come by at least two goals.

Aston Villa have at least begun to play better under Tim Sherwood, but the 0-1 home loss to Swansea shows there are still some underlining confidence issues for a team battling against the drop. Sherwood is not likely to have his Aston Villa side sit back and hope to settle for a draw and that might not be the best approach to take against a Manchester United side with plenty of confidence from their last couple of wins.

I can imagine Aston Villa try and hit Manchester United on the counter, but I think there is a real rhythm to the Manchester United attack over the last two games which should lead them to another comfortable win over their visitors. Manchester United have scored at least three goals in 6 of their last 9 games at Old Trafford in all competitions and reaching that total should see the home team win by at least two goals this weekend.


Chelsea v Stoke City Pick: If Chelsea had dropped points at Hull City after being 0-2 up in that game, you might be wondering if the side have begun to really feel the pressure of leading the Premier League table. After being dominant at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League, Chelsea have drawn 3 of their last 4 home League games and they have failed to score more than a single goal in any of those games.

However, Chelsea did win at the KC Stadium and they have a real chance to put the hammer down on Manchester City who remain the most realistic challenger to the Premier League title. The latter don't play until Easter Monday and Chelsea have a chance to extend their lead at the top if they can continue their winning run against Stoke City.

Losing Victor Moses for this game is a blow to Stoke City and they did suffer a couple of disappointing losses prior to the international break. Mark Hughes has kept Stoke City difficult to play against and they will come to Stamford Bridge with a gameplan to frustrate the home team and try and nick something on the break.

The struggles in front of goal have to be a concern for Jose Mourinho, especially if Stoke City are allowed to dig in and don't concede an early goal. Diego Costa's absence would be a concern too, but there are still plenty of players at Mourinho's disposal that can help his team break through in this one.

I do think the win at Hull City is the kind of boost that Chelsea needed plus the two week break might be what the squad needed to get over their disappointment in losing to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League. I would expect them to be too strong for a Stoke City team that has lost at Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal with the latest defeat being the most comfortable.

An early goal could give Stoke City a problem and I think Chelsea will win by at least two goals.


Burnley v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is a really important game at both ends of the Premier League table as Tottenham Hotspur will likely be chasing down the teams above them who should have recorded wins in the League on Saturday, while Burnley can get out of the bottom three with a victory on Sunday.

Both managers will be aware of the significance of a game like this one and it looks a decent pick for the first of the live games on Sunday afternoon. Neither Burnley nor Tottenham Hotspur have really been performing up to the standard expected when it comes to defensive shape and that should mean there are chances at both ends of the pitch where Danny Ings and Harry Kane will hope to impress.

I do have to say that Spurs look a short price to win at Turf Moor considering what happened to Manchester City and the fact that Tottenham Hotspur have been a little hit and miss on their travels. However, in saying that, I do believe they are the more likely victors as they try to stay on the coattails of Manchester United and hope they slip up in three big games to come during the rest of the month.

I can see chances being created at both ends of the pitch though with nervous defending playing a part and a little composure from both teams may see a few goals go in to please the neutrals. Tottenham Hotspur in particular have been involved in some high-scoring games this season and this has the makings of a 2-1 victory either way.


Crystal Palace v Manchester City Pick: When the fixture was picked for live television coverage, it might have been expected that this was going to have a really big impact at both ends of the Premier League table but that doesn't seem to be the case actually going into the weekend.

For Crystal Palace that is a positive as they have built real momentum to get out of trouble and now have nothing to lose as they look to keep the positive feeling going into their remaining games. Manchester City are still in the chase for the Premier League title, but are under more pressure knowing any more dropped points would likely be a fatal blow to their chances of retaining the trophy they won last season.

Alan Pardew has got the best out of his Crystal Palace squad of players and has utilised the pace of Wilfried Zaha and Yannick Bolasie to cause problems for teams, while Glenn Murray has come in from the cold and is scoring goals. The absence of Mile Jedinak is an issue as the main protection in front of the back four and that will be an area that Manchester City will look to exploit.

The defensive problems that Manchester City have failed to disguise will be tested fully by Zaha, Bolasie and Murray, while Dwight Gayle can have an impact on the bench. On the other hand, I expect Manchester City to have their own joy when they get forward and this could have a similar feeling to when the other top sides have visited Selhurst Park.

Chelsea, Liverpool (in the FA Cup) and Arsenal have all won by the same 1-2 scoreline here, but Liverpool (in the Premier League) and Tottenham Hotspur have also been beaten in high-scoring games. When considering the issues Manchester City have had at the back, but also the quality they have going forward, this game might have a similar pattern.

Manchester City had scored in every away game in the Premier League before the loss at Burnley, but they have also kept just 3 clean sheets on their travels and none in their last 6 away League games. Both teams might get on the scoreboard in this one, but Manchester City have to keep pushing forward and I will back this game to feature at least three goals shared between the teams.

MY PICKS: Arsenal @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 130-162-4, + 4.43 Units (509 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)