French Open Day 7 Picks 2015 (May 30th)

Friday ended up being the worst day for the picks for the French Open tournament so far which was disappointing as the last three picks of the day failed to come through. The Carla Suarez Navarro pick never looked like being successful, but Gael Monfils won in five sets and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won in straight sets which missed the four set wins I had predicted for both.

Both of those matches could easily have worked out, but it does mean the first really poor day of the week so far as I try and keep clear of the upsets that have been happening through the event. On Saturday the Fourth Round line up will be completed and hopefully the picks get back into the positive swing of things.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: The top half of the French Open men's draw is dominated by three of the favourites to win the title, but Marin Cilic continues to go about his business and won't want anyone to forget that he was a Grand Slam winner just nine months ago.

Of course Cilic has slipped off the radar thanks to an injury that meant a late start to his 2015 season and this is going to be far from an easy Third Round match against Leonardo Mayer. The clay courts are very much a comfort for Mayer who had a strong week in Nice and has come through a couple of Rounds here by showing his battling ability.

The Argentinian has a decent serve which can help him get on the front foot on a clay court, but Mayer is going to be given plenty to think about by Cilic if he continues to have his eye in on the return. The injury does mean Cilic is still trying to find the consistency that led him to the US Open title in 2014 and I do think he is likely to drop at least one set on his way to winning this match, but I think the two wins in Paris will have given the Croatian the confidence to come through.

Cilic has to remain focused even when things get a little hard, which they will in this tough Third Round match, but I think he can eventually get the upper hand in a 36, 64, 63, 76 win.


Andy Murray - 6.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: One of the more intriguing Third Round matches in the men's draw is the one between Andy Murray and a young rising star from Australia. It is a big match for Nick Kyrgios too as he looks to show his own improvement having been beaten by Murray in their two previous matches including a fairly comfortable win at the Australian Open in January 2015.

You would imagine that the clay courts would favour Andy Murray even more than their two previous matches on hard courts as the slower surface should take out some of the bite of the Kyrgios serve. However, it may also give the younger player a chance to tee off on the return of serve, especially if Andy Murray is serving as poor as he did for a set and a half against Joao Sousa in the Second Round.

The match should be one that inspires Murray to bring his best to the court as he will know anything less is going to present a problem for him. He'll know what to expect from Kyrgios and I think Murray's ability to get balls back into play will make it tough for his opponent to dictate to the level he wants to.

Kyrgios has shown some ability on the clay courts during this part of the season including a win over Roger Federer, but I think Murray will get a better read on the return of serve and puts together a similar 63, 75, 64 win as to the one he recorded over the Australian at Melbourne Park earlier this season.


Thanasi Kokkinakis + 9.5 games v Novak Djokovic: Any time you go against the World Number 1 in any market, you know you need some element of luck with you, but I do think Thanasi Kokkinakis is getting too many games in this Third Round match.

We all know what Novak Djokovic is going to produce as he has a very strong ability to get balls back into play off an aggressive return and can hit all parts of the court in the baseline rallies. The strength of Kokkinakis won't worry Djokovic at all and his biggest concern might be the injury he was dealing with in his win over Gilles Muller in the Second Round.

I think this range of games has also been influenced by Kokkinakis having to come from two sets down to beat Bernard Tomic 8-6 in a final set a couple of days ago. He also had to overcome a heavy fall in that match and fatigue has to be a concern for a player that won the Bordeaux Challenger last week too, but Kokkinakis has the kind of game that will make him very competitive in this match in my opinion.

The mental belief that Kokkinakis has will give him a chance and this does look a lot of games for Novak Djokovic to cover. Of course the World Number 1 is capable, but I am a big fan of the Kokkinakis game and he has every chance of stealing a set which would give him a great chance to cover with a big number of games in his pocket.


Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Borna Coric: Another youngster who looks to have an extremely bright future on the ATP Tour is Borna Coric, but I am going to back against him in this Third Round as I feel Jack Sock might have a little too much for him. There has to be some fatigue playing a part in the match after Coric came through another difficult match against Tommy Robredo in the Second Round and he has been having a few issues with fitness this week after reaching the Semi Final in Nice last week.

Having been pushed to five sets in the last Round, Coric might just run out of gas against Jack Sock who has a big serve and heavy forehand that could see him get on the front foot in this match. It does feel like Sock has been on the Tour for years, but at 22 years old, the American is beginning to put together his game very effectively.

The backhand remains a real weakness in the Sock game, but he has found a way to disguise that weakness and looks very comfortable on the clay courts. He hadn't had the same level of results as Coric going into the French Open, but Sock has been an impressive winner in the first two Rounds and the spin he is getting on the ball could prevent Coric from controlling rallies.

This will be far from easy for Sock though and I do think Coric has more talent in his game- however that bit of fatigue might prove to be a big difference as Sock comes through 76, 46, 63, 64.


David Ferrer - 8.5 games v Simone Bolelli: David Ferrer continues to progress through the draw without too much fuss and that is just the way the Spaniard will like it as he moves into the Third Round. Twelve months ago he crushed Simone Bolelli at the French Open and David Ferrer will be a big favourite to win this match.

That isn't being disrespectful to Bolelli who has had a strong season and come through a couple of Rounds with very strong performances. However the Italian has regularly come up short when facing the very best players on the ATP Tour even on his favourite surface and someone like Ferrer could give him a lot of problems to deal with both physically and mentally.

The Spaniard is a player that will put in 100% effort into every point he plays and that means Bolelli will have to work hard to win each and every point he does. He will have a tough time physically competing with Ferrer who is happy to allow rallies to go as long as required to wear down opponents and that can mentally wear a player out.

It was the reason that Ferrer broke down Bolelli last season, but also Ferrer is the better player all around and you just can't dismiss that. After a battle in the first set, I expect things to get that much easier for Ferrer who comes through with a similar margin to last season as he wins 64, 63, 62.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Irina-Camelia Begu: She might not be as famous as her compatriot Simona Halep, but Irina-Camelia Begu remains in the draw in Paris and has been very strong through her first couple of Rounds. Begu has had a decent clay court season ahead of Roland Garros too with some impressive scalps taken, but she will need to be at her very best if she is going to move through to the Fourth Round.

In fact you may even argue that she will need Petra Kvitova to be off her game if the upset is to come off in this Third Round match even if the Number 4 Seed has been less than impressive early in the tournament. The conditions are not exactly to Kvitova's liking at the moment as the cooler temperatures in Paris make it harder for her to hit through the court and her consistency off the ground has been an issue for her.

Kvitova will need to serve well to keep her chances of winning a maiden French Open title alive, but I think she has enough success attacking the Begu serve to find her way through the match.

Her tendency to go the distance in matches has to be a concern, but I think Kvitova is too strong and won't need to do that for a third straight match at Roland Garros. This has all the makings of a tight 63, 76 kind of win for Kvitova.


Andrea Petkovic v Sara Errani: This has been a strange season for Sara Errani as she decided to stop playing the Doubles Tour with Roberta Vinci, despite being hugely successful in doing that, but hasn't really produced the goods on the Singles Tour.

Errani really believed not playing Doubles would improve her Singles form, but she has failed to really catch fire on the clay courts which were her bread and butter over recent years. Now she faces an incredibly tough Third Round match against Andrea Petkovic who looks to have recovered from the injury that forced her withdrawal from Nuremberg last week.

It wasn't always a straight-forward path for Petkovic to the Third Round but coming back from a set down to beat Lourdes Dominguez Lino will give her confidence. She has also gotten the better of Errani in two of their three meetings which have all come on the clay courts and just looks to have a bit more all around in her game.

The German has decent movement but the heavier ball striking and Errani's serve can also be a big weakness for her game. Petkovic should be able to find a way to take advantage of all of her weapons compared with Errani and can come through in three sets.


Kristina Mladenovic - 4.5 games v Alison Van Uytvanck: Not many people would have predicted this as a Third Round match at the French Open with the biggest 'surprise' being the exit of Seeded Eugenie Bouchard from this section.

Alison Van Uytvanck won the sole previous match between these two on the professional Tour, but has had to battle incredibly hard to come through her first two matches. That could see some mental tiredness set in as she has to face both Kristina Mladenovic and the home crowd that will be fully behind the French player.

I did wonder how Mladenovic would cope with the media attention that followed an impressive win over Bouchard in the First Round, but she showed in the Second Round that she is not ready to end her clay court season right now. There has always been a lot of promise in the Mladenovic game, but she had been inconsistent so this has the making of a huge breakout tournament for her.

The run to the Final in Strasbourg last week has clearly upped the confidence levels too and I think Van Uytvanck has yet to really prove herself on this surface. The two wins are strong results for Van Uytvanck, but I think the clay will favour Mladenovic who can come through 63, 64.


Sloane Stephens - 4.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: Sloane Stephens backed up her impressive win over Venus Williams with a comprehensive win over Heather Watson and the American looks like she might have rediscovered the form that has been missing for much of 2015. The match up with Tsvetana Pironkova on a clay court should suit Stephens very much in this Third Round and I would not be surprised if she can record a fairly routine kind of win.

For all the talent that Pironkova has, I am not always convinced she is fully focused on her tennis, while she is a player that is not usually that comfortable on the clay courts. Credit to Pironkova for making the best of her two early opponents to reach this stage, but Stephens is producing some very effective tennis and could be tough to contain.

There is no doubt that Stephens can be incredibly erratic sometimes, but she seems to have had a good control of her emotions in recent matches. You would expect Stephens to be a stronger hard court player than a clay court one, but she is very comfortable on this surface too and has the movement to get plenty of balls back, while also possessing the power to turn defence into attack.

I can see a match that has a first set full of breaks before Stephens begins to take control and eventually come through 75, 63.


Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: I know that Serena Williams struggled in the last Round and there has been some suggestion that she could be suffering with some kind of injury which is limiting her serve, but I was still expecting to see at least two more games being given to Victoria Azarenka.

They did play a close match in Madrid that Serena Williams won on a final set tie-breaker, but the American has said she is playing very well in practice and will be able to bring that back to the court. When her back is against the wall, as it is after the way Williams has played so far in the tournament, she usually comes out firing and that makes this a dangerous match for Azarenka.

The last four times these players have met have been close, but Azarenka has to find better serving if she is going to have a real chance to beat Williams. There have been signs that Azarenka is getting back to the form that took her to the pinnacle of the women's game, but she is still struggling with her consistency and is facing Serena Williams who has something to prove.

Azarenka's talent will give her every chance of taking a set off of Williams, but I am not ready to believe she can win this match in her current state. I can see Azarenka improving as each passing week of the season goes by, but I think she'll struggle to keep Williams off her service games here and eventually the American World Number 1 comes through 62, 36, 63.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thanasi Kokkinakis + 9.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Betway (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

French Open Update: 24-19, + 8.06 Units (84 Units Staked, + 9.60% Yield)