Midweek Football Picks 2015 (May 5-7)

The Champions League and Europa League Semi Finals take place this week and they should be some fascinating games as the season fast approaches a close.


Juventus v Real Madrid Pick: The Serie A title was clinched yet again by Juventus, but the real gauge of their success will be whether they can turn domestic triumphs into European victory in the Champions League. In the late 1990's, Juventus were the team to beat in the Champions League as they reached three consecutive Finals, but they haven't won this competition in nineteen seasons.

In fact this is the first appearance Juventus have had in the Champions League Semi Finals since 2003 when they beat Real Madrid 4-3 on aggregate before eventually going down to Milan in a penalty shoot out in the Final. Juventus can put in a full shift into the two games to be played in this Semi Final with the title secured, especially as Real Madrid are still battling in La Liga to overturn Barcelona, but that isn't necessary enough to see them through.

As good as Juventus have been in Italy, they were clearly seen as the worst of the four remaining teams in the Champions League as they get set to take on the defending Champions. They have won 9 of their last 10 games at home in all competitions, and they have won 5 of their last 6 in the Champions League in Turin, but Juventus weren't that impressive against Monaco in the Quarter Finals and Real Madrid are the toughest test they have had to face here all season.

Juventus did draw with Atletico Madrid in the Group Stage here, but Real Madrid come to town with a returning Karim Benzema and Gareth Bale and they look like they have a lot of goals in the team. A 2-3 win at Sevilla on Saturday shows what Real Madrid are capable of when they get their counter-attack just right, although Juventus might be quite content to sit back and wait to try and hit Real Madrid themselves.

Real Madrid had won 5 straight away games in the Champions League before a goalless draw with Atletico Madrid in the Quarter Final, but their city rivals have had something of an Indian Sign over them. There is also some concern that Spanish sides have when facing Italian opposition as they can easily be frustrated by the strong defensive shape that they can produce, but Juventus have to feel they need a lead to take to Madrid in the Second Leg.

Carlo Ancelotti's men only really play one way and will look to get forward and score the goals that can put them in a strong position to progress to their second consecutive Champions League Final. I can see this being a more entertaining game than some would expect as Real Madrid get forward and Juventus try to get something to take to the Santiago Bernebeu.

I did consider Real Madrid to win the game considering their attacking ability even away from home, but the two Group Stage games played between these teams just two years ago showed how much Juventus will be able to trouble Real Madrid too. If the Italian Champions can play with positivity, they might have something to hold onto in Madrid, but it is hard to imagine Real Madrid not scoring at least once and I do fancy goals in this game.

It does look a big price for there being at least three goals to be scored with the teams that will take to the field on Tuesday. Both teams have players that can finish any chances that come their way and I think Juventus and Real Madrid will each score once and neither is likely to settle too much for that result.


Barcelona v Bayern Munich Pick: This is easily the better of the two Champions League Semi Finals and there are a number of storylines that will be the attention of the media heading into the tie. The first is clearly the return of Pep Guardiola to the Nou Camp for the first time since leaving Barcelona and taking over as the manager of Bayern Munich.

The second is Barcelona attempting to earn a measure of revenge for their crushing 0-7 defeat to Bayern Munich in the 2013 Semi Finals which ended with the latter going through and winning the competition.

Things have changed for both teams in the last couple of years as Bayern Munich have to recover from their own Semi Final demons having been crushed by Real Madrid at this stage last season. However, they have to have some confidence this time around after coming back from a 3-1 deficit to hammer Porto in the Quarter Final, although the defeat in the away tie has to be a concern as they get set to go to Barcelona.

Another issue for Bayern Munich has been failure to take their domestic form into away games in the Champions League as they have lost half of their last 6 in this competition. However, the side have had every chance to prepare for this game having wrapped up the Bundesliga title and Guardiola will know a lot about the players that his team will be facing this week.

Barcelona will be wondering if Guardiola can slow down the impact that Lionel Messi can have on the game, but they have to be very confident in this tie with their front three clicking. Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez might be the most feared forward line in Europe and Bayern Munich's defence has looked anything but watertight on their travels in the Champions League.

Since losing that Semi Final to Bayern Munich, Barcelona have won 9 of their last 10 Champions League home games and they have won all 5 played this season. This is a team that can create a lot of chances at home and their direct style of play with pose Bayern Munich plenty of problems, especially after seeing what Porto did.

The absence of Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery does give Barcelona the edge in the tie, but Bayern Munich's possession based attack should give this defence a real test too. As good as Barcelona have been over the last couple of months, they still don't look like a team that is comfortable when put under pressure and I do think Bayern Munich will score, although I still fancy Barcelona to have some sort of lead to take to Bavaria for the Second Leg.

I believe this will be another exciting Champions League Semi Final, but one where I believe the home team with have the advantage going into the Second Leg. However, the feeling that Bayern Munich will score makes me feel that Barcelona are worth backing in a game where there will be at least three goals shared, a far more appealing price than simply backing the Spanish side to win at odds on.

Both Manchester City and Porto scored three goals in home wins over Bayern Munich in the Champions League this season and Barcelona's front three are more than capable of causing havoc for them too.


Sevilla v Fiorentina Pick: At this stage of the Europa League, the four teams involved are not just challenging for a major trophy but also a place in the Champions League next season and that might up the pressure a little more. Sevilla will come into the Semi Finals with the experience that comes as defending Champions in the Europa League, but they can also earn a place in the Champions League from their League form in Spain.

Finding the right balance over the last month of the season is the priority for Sevilla, but that is not a concern for Fiorentina who are struggling to even finish in the European places in Italy. It has been a positive season for Fiorentina for the majority of the season, but they have really begun to focus on getting it right in the Europa League, although they are still considered as an outsider to win the tournament behind Sevilla and Napoli.

That won't be of major concern for Vincenzo Montella and Fiorentina considering their performances in the Europa League as they have lost just 1 of their 12 games in the competition this season. The side have been more impressive away from home where Fiorentina are unbeaten in their last 12 games in the Europa League since the beginning of last season.

You can only be impressed with that kind of record, but not many of their opponents can be considered of the level of Sevilla who have won 8 straight home games in this competition including all 6 they have played this season. Sevilla are a team that has plenty of goals in them at home and they have scored at least twice in their last 7 at home, although they were beaten 2-3 here by Real Madrid at the weekend.

The defeat might have dented some confidence, but Real Madrid are a much better team than Fiorentina and Sevilla will feel they are going to have enough to at least have a lead to take into the Second Leg. Fiorentina have conceded a fair few goals in their last four away games in all competitions, but they have been saving their best for the Europa League and they did give Juventus all they could handle in a 3-2 loss in Turin last week.

It won't be easy for Sevilla, but they have played very well at home for much of the season and they have the experience of winning the Europa League. That might be enough for them to take a lead to Florence, although Fiorentina seem comfortable playing on their travels in the Europa League. However, the goals being conceded is a big concern heading to Seville and that might be too much to overcome.

If Sevilla match their recent goal-scoring form at home, they might just have enough to win this First Leg and get into a position to return to the Europa League Final.

MY PICKS: Juventus-Real Madrid Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barcelona Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sevilla @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)

May Update: 2-3, - 1.60 Units (10 Units Staked, - 16% Yield)

April Final: 18-27-1, - 14.29 Units (83 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)
March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 148-189-5, - 9.86 Units (592 Units Staked, - 1.67% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)