Rome Tennis Picks 2015 (May 13th)

It was another positive day for the picks after a poor start and that has set up the week in Rome to potentially follow that in Madrid.

You can't take anything for granted though as any pick made needs that bit of luck to make sure it comes in as a winner.

That was highlighted by Novak Djokovic's win over Nicolas Almagro on Tuesday- the spread for the match was 6.5 games, but it was highly competitive throughout and those backing Almagro didn't get a little bit of luck to make sure they got the win.

Almagro made Djokovic work for all he got over the last couple of sets, but didn't do enough to cover even with a huge head-start and that doesn't say how close this match was. Novak Djokovic took his chances at just the right time for his backers, but it could easily have gone another way on a different day and just goes to show that you still need things to work out perfectly whenever you make a pick.

Hopefully that luck remains on my side going through the rest of the week and heading into the French Open which is fast approaching.


Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Jiri Vesely: There are some big things predicted for the future of 21 year old Jiri Vesely, but it does seem to be that the younger players need a little more time before they make a consistent breakthrough on the Tour. He is Ranked at Number 40 and has reached Finals and won titles, but Vesely has been struggling a little of late and now faces an opponent of the calibre of Kei Nishikori in the Second Round.

Vesely beat Ernests Gulbis in the First Round, but a lot of people are doing that at the moment and he had to dig deep to eventually see off the Latvian who is set for a huge drop in the World Rankings over the next couple of weeks.

He will have to raise his game another level as he takes on Nishikori who is very comfortable on the clay courts and who reached the Semi Final last week in Madrid. Nishikori can use his athleticism on the clay courts to outlast opponents and he is comfortable moving around on the surface and I think he will be a little too good on the baseline for Vesely.

If Nishikori serves well, the pressure will be on Vesely to stay with him and recent results suggest that might not be something he is capable of doing. I imagine Nishikori wearing down Vesely rally by rally and eventually cracking him in a 64, 62 win.


Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Fabio Fognini: Grigor Dimitrov is still trying to find the consistency that will help him turn around his 2015 season, but he has already beaten Fabio Fognini twice on the clay courts over the last couple of months and I like his chances to do that again. Their last match in Madrid went the distance, but Dimitrov was the stronger player and I can't see too much changing even if the home support may inspire Fognini to turn things around.

The Dimitrov game does match up well with Fognini's with the additional strength on serve for the Bulgarian able to help him set up points a little easier when he gets the first serve in play.

Even if this match goes the distance, Fognini is always capable of throwing in a shocking set where he is perhaps broken twice and that should give Dimitrov a chance to cover this number as long as he wins. Dimitrov has a couple of Quarter Final appearances during the clay court season and that is better than what Fognini has managed to do over the last six weeks with the Italian something of a disappointment.

It might be harsh to say that about Fognini considering he has beaten Rafael Nadal twice on clay this season, but that should be the standard he aspires to. Instead Fognini has struggled for consistency and I like Dimitrov to knock him off in this Second Round match.


Gilles Simon - 2.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Dominic Thiem rode his luck a little to knock off Simone Bolelli in the last Round and I don't think he will have Gilles Simon being so generous in this one. I like Thiem, but he is another young player who is trying to find his consistency on the court and I think we won't see the best of him for a couple of years yet.

He will have his chances against Gilles Simon simply because the latter is someone that doesn't have the biggest serve and who has to work hard through every game and every point he plays. However, Simon has played some good tennis in recent weeks and is capable of using his experience to drag Thiem into a war and eventually wear him down.

Simon can be a frustrating player to go up against even for some of the best players on the Tour with his ability to get plenty of balls back in play, but that is something that Thiem might not be mentally ready to deal with. I can imagine that has played its part in his two losses to Simon last season which both went the distance, including on the clay courts in Nice, and might come to the fore in this one too.

After a tough couple of sets, I will look for Simon to take control of a decider and move through with a 63, 57, 64 win.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v David Goffin: I honestly do think that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's best days are behind him as injuries have hampered him through his career and there are only so many of those you can take. It gets harder and harder to recover from those issues and fight your way back up to the top of the Tour and the feeling I have is that Tsonga might have missed his window to win a Grand Slam title.

However, he should still have a little too much in the locker for David Goffin as long as Tsonga does serve well- while the Frenchman can win a lot of cheap points behind the serve, Goffin will give him an opportunity to get involved in his service games and Tsonga can earn the breaks of serve to win this match.

These players have had some competitive matches against one another in the past, but Tsonga was a fairly comfortable winner against him in Monte Carlo and has more matches under his belt now to match that result. Goffin has just struggled for consistency over the last six weeks of the season and I do think he goes through too many patches of poor tennis that will be punished by Tsonga if he does that here.

If Tsonga can serve well and come through the first set, I see him being too good for Goffin and moving into the Third Round with a 75, 64 win behind him.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: Roger Federer has already admitted that he would not have played the tournament in Rome if he had had a better week in Madrid last time out. However, an early exit in the Spanish capital means Federer changed some plans and has travelled to the Italian capital in the hope of getting some wins and confidence under his belt ahead of the French Open.

In all honesty, Federer will need the stars to align perfectly for him to win a second French Open title and I think his chances to improve his Grand Slam tally are much stronger at Wimbledon and the US Open. Federer did win a title on clay in Istanbul, but I think the longer rallies are not suiting him and he has to work too hard on this surface, while I think there are a number of players that feel they can get the better of him on the clay.

One of those should be someone like Pablo Cuevas who pushed Federer in a very competitive Final in Istanbul and who has had a strong clay court season. Most of the successes came when Cuevas took part in the South American swing earlier this season, but he is a very comfortable player on the clay courts and will give Federer something to think about.

The former World Number 1 had to dig deep to see off Cuevas in Istanbul, but the match up is one that should suit Federer considering he will get into a decent rhythm unlike what Nick Krygios gave him last week. It should be what Federer wants to see to open his campaign in Rome and I like him to come through 63, 64.


Victoria Azarenka v Caroline Wozniacki: Victoria Azarenka had to work surprisingly work hard to win her First Round match on Tuesday, but I am expecting the former World Number 1 to really start moving back up the World Rankings. After an injury hit 2014, Azarenka has just struggled to find her consistency this season, but she has beaten Caroline Wozniacki twice and I am looking for her to make it a hat-trick of wins on Wednesday in a huge Second Round match.

Azarenka has won the two previous matches between these two comfortably and without dropping a set, although Wozniacki has shown the better form on the clay courts so far. This is going to be a tougher match than the previous two that these two have played against one another in 2015 and I can see it going the distance.

However, I liked how well Azarenka played in a defeat against Serena Williams last week as she showed signs she is getting back to her best. The one concern might be that Azarenka couldn't finish the job and win that match, but she should be confident mentally against Wozniacki having beaten her twice already.

I am expecting to see a fair few breaks of serves in this one, but I like Azarenka's chances of moving on in the draw and odds against in this match.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)

Rome Update: 7-4, + 4.42 Units (22 Units Staked, + 20.09% Yield)