Rome Tennis Picks 2015 (May 15th)

It has been a difficult couple of days for the tennis picks which has prevented me from kicking on from the positives of Madrid in the manner I would have liked.

We have reached the Quarter Finals of both the Masters and Premier Event in Rome which means all eight of those Singles matches are scheduled to be played on the Friday. That is assuming we don't get the withdrawals like we saw on Thursday as both Andy Murray and Serena Williams failed to even take to the court for their matches, but I can't see players wanting to lose any momentum at the business end of the tournament.

It is the last chance to put a real marker down for the French Open whose qualifying will begin next week before the draw is made in seven days time which is something that everyone will be looking forward to. The best thing I am feeling about the second Grand Slam tournament of the season is the openness of the women's draw, while the potential for another classic between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in Paris is not something to ignore.

I don't want to get ahead of myself and will look forward to breaking down the draw next week.


Roger Federer - 2.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The clay courts can't be considered the favourite surface for either of these players and matches between Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych have been very intriguing over the last couple of seasons. I would expect this one to be much tighter than when they met at Indian Wells a couple of months ago as Roger Federer dominated the second set where he handed Berdych a bagel.

Tomas Berdych had to dig incredibly deep to beat Fabio Fognini in a final set tie-breaker on Thursday and the question has to be how well he has recovered from those exploits. On the other hand, Roger Federer hasn't been playing at a consistent level over the last couple of tournaments and could be vulnerable if his serve continues to be as erratic as it has been.

There have been plenty of positives in the Federer performances, but he has failed to maintain that level and will have to return much better than he did in a loss to Nick Kyrgios last week in Madrid. We all know that Berdych can serve very effectively when he finds his rhythm, but he hasn't been at his best in that aspect of his game this week and that might encourage Federer.

I do think the fatigue element may also show up in this one and I think that helps Federer move into the Semi Final behind a 46, 63, 64 win.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: After taking Madrid off for rest purposes, Novak Djokovic returned to the Tour this week in Rome but has been forced to dig deep to win his first two matches. That will all be music to his ears though as Djokovic has WON those matches against Nicolas Almagro and Thomaz Bellucci despite being pushed by both and that will only increase his confidence going into the French Open.

One player that is a potential threat at Roland Garros is Kei Nishikori who seems very comfortable on the clay courts and has won the title in Barcelona while also reaching the Semi Final in Madrid last week. However, Nishikori might be suffering a bit of fatigue as he has struggled to hold serve this week and I think he will find it tough to avoid being worn down by Djokovic in this one.

There have been some tight matches between the pair in the past, but Novak Djokovic has won two matches comfortably against Nishikori since his surprising Semi Final defeat at the US Open last September.

It should be a good match up for Djokovic as he does protect his serve better than Nishikori, but there will be some long rallies and tough moments to get through. After a couple of breaks of serve each way, I expect Djokovic to start having more success on that front and coming through with a 75, 63 win.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: There is no doubt that Stan Wawrinka's upheaval in his personal life is affecting his play on the tennis court and he has been fortunate to be able to have got through to this Quarter Final. If Wawrinka plays anything as poorly as he did for a set and a half against Juan Monaco in the Second Round, Rafael Nadal is going to have too much for him.

For all of the doubts around Nadal's form going into the French Open, the Spaniard himself has admitted that he is perhaps past his best on a tennis court. However, Nadal also stated he is taking a lot more positives out of his run to the Madrid Final than the negatives of his performance in that Final.

I have to believe what Nadal is saying because he has looked very good in the first couple of matches in Rome and was a dominant winner over John Isner on Thursday. With the way Isner has been serving, that could have been a really awkward match for Nadal, but he played with something of his old swagger and didn't make the unforced errors that have blighted recent performances.

Of course the real test for Nadal will come in the next few days as the bigger matches take place and how he handles those will show if he really is back to close to his best form. Having a dominant win over Stan Wawrinka may raise some attention and I think Nadal can be too good if Wawrinka is unable to control his emotions which has been the case in recent weeks.

There has never been much doubting the talent that Wawrinka has, but not being mentally focused will only result in a 64, 63 loss to Nadal.


Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: There might be some fatigue in the legs of both of these players coming into this Quarter Final, but I will be looking for Petra Kvitova to snap her poor run against Carla Suarez Navarro.

It is Carla Suarez Navarro who has won their last three matches, including both played this season, and I have to admit that is a surprise to me that Kvitova has struggled so badly against the Spaniard. The inconsistency of Kvitova off the ground is partly a reason for her run of losses to Suarez Navarro,  but I would think the power that the Czech player has at her disposal would be too much for Suarez Navarro to handle.

We have seen Serena Williams continue to bully Suarez Navarro in matches between them two and I would have expected Petra Kvitova to have a similar success, especially when returning serve. However, that hasn't been the case and perhaps facing a fellow left-hander has been causing Kvitova more problems than it should do.

There might not be a better chance for Kvitova to snap her losing run against Suarez Navarro considering how long the latter had to spend on the court on Thursday. That has to have had a mental and physical drain on the Spaniard and I will look for Kvitova to have too much in a 63, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Rome Update: 9-10, - 3.74 Units (38 Units Staked, - 9.84% Yield)