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Saturday 9 May 2015

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (May 9-11)

This is the weekend where we are likely to see at least two teams relegated from the Premier League and the battle to avoid the final relegation place really heat up.

The same can be said of the battle for the top four as Manchester United hope to hold off Liverpool with both teams facing tough trips to London over the weekend.


Everton v Sunderland Pick: When you are battling to avoid relegation, it doesn't matter how 'hard' and 'difficult' the fixtures you have remaining as you have to find the points where you can. That is the case for Sunderland who had a vital win over Southampton at home last weekend, but still have to face trips to Arsenal and Chelsea to complete the season.

Those two trips to London may mean that Sunderland have to find the points in their next two games at Everton and at home against Leicester City if they are to avoid finishing in the bottom three, but the win last week gives them every chance to do that.

Sunderland get the chance to put the pressure on their relegation rivals by beating Everton in the early kick off as the three points would move them all the way up to 14th in the Premier League table from their current position of 18th. However, it is going to be far from easy for Sunderland to get anything from this game considering they haven't won any of their last 8 away games in the Premier League and have lost half of those games.

Add in the fact that Everton have been much improved in recent weeks and still looking for a top half of the table finish from the end of this season. The 3-2 loss at Aston Villa last weekend was disappointing, but Everton have started scoring more goals and I do wonder if Sunderland can match that attacking output.

Everton have won 6 in a row at home in all competitions and have kept clean sheets in their last 4 games at Goodison Park and I think they will be a little too good for Sunderland and really keep the pressure on the Black Cats at the bottom of the table.


Aston Villa v West Ham United Pick: You have to say that Tim Sherwood arrived at Villa Park in the nick of time as he has improved the fortunes of Aston Villa considerably since taking over from Paul Lambert. However, for all the improving performances and results, Aston Villa have not been able to shake off the teams below them and are still very much in a relegation dogfight with three games left to play.

A win on Saturday would go a long way to relieving the tension that might still exist in the Aston Villa squad, even if they have shown little of that in recent games. The performances against Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, Manchester City and Everton have shown a belief that Aston Villa can really hang onto going into the final weeks of the season as they bid to avoid the drop.

Sherwood's arrival has sparked Christian Benteke in front of goal and Aston Villa are no longer the shy goalscorers of the Paul Lambert era. In fact they have scored at least three times in their last couple of Premier League games at Villa Park, although Aston Vila have needed all of those goals to earn their points.

Despite the improvement up front, Aston Villa have looked vulnerable defensively and West Ham United should be able to test that, even if they have been poor away from home through the 2015 calendar year. The players have looked like they know Sam Allardyce might not be here in the new season and have played with that in mind and the season can't come to an end quick enough for many of them.

Those uncertain performances should give Aston Villa the edge in the game, but I am not happy backing a team at odds on when they are as vulnerable at the back as the home team are. Can West Ham United take advantage? That is the big question, but if they come here with any kind of motivation I can see them scoring at least once and so backing there being at least three goals shared looks the call.

Aston Villa have scored plenty, but conceded plenty too in recent weeks and goals could be the order of the day.


Hull City v Burnley Pick: It is only a matter of time before Burnley are officially relegated back to the Championship, but they haven't disgraced themselves this season and simply found the level too high in the Premier League. Unlike Queens Park Rangers and Charlie Austin, Burnley didn't find a player to score regularly in the Premier League despite the attention Danny Ings seems to be receiving from some of the top clubs in England.

That is the problem that Burnley have had all season and failing to score in any of their last 6 Premier League games is the reason they have been essentially relegated with three games to play.

Sean Dyche is unlikely to have his team feeling sorry for themselves and they can play spoiler for Hull City this weekend as a win at the KC Stadium will put the home team in an awful spot to avoid the drop. Burnley have won on their last 4 visits to Hull City, but Steve Bruce has to feel his team have been playing well enough to find one or two goals which could be enough to earn the three points.

Hull City need them.

Failing to win here would give Sunderland a real chance to overtake Hull City in the final weeks of the season and put the pressure on Hull to find a win over either Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United to close the year. That alone means Hull City should be feeling a lot more pressure than Burnley, who have nothing to lose at this stage of the season, and might play a large part in this match.

However, I think the lack of goals that Burnley have been scoring is a real issue and Hull City defend well enough to earn a clean sheet. For all the hard work Burnley do, you can create chances against them and I think Hull City will find a goal or two at home to earn the three points.


Crystal Palace v Manchester United Pick: If you go back three weeks, Manchester United looked a certainty to finish in the top four of the Premier League, but all the excitement of a six game winning run in the Premier League has been replaced by some nervousness. In all honesty, Manchester United should be grateful for some of the slips Liverpool have had in recent weeks or they might already be behind the black ball for a top four place.

The four point lead over Liverpool should be enough with three games to go, but a defeat at Selhurst Park would really put the cat amongst the pigeons for Louis Van Gaal and his side. Despite the poor form that Crystal Palace have displayed, there is little doubt the fans are going to create a great atmosphere to inspire the home team and the likes of Wilfried Zaha will be playing with something to prove.

It is Zaha and Yannick Bolasie who could pose major threats for Crystal Palace as Manchester United have been undone by the counter attack by Chelsea and Everton in their recent away games. Both of those players are blessed with pace and power and they will be very difficult to stop if Manchester United can't transition better than they have in recent games.

On the other hand, I am expecting better from Manchester United going forward than they have produced in recent games. Chances have come for Manchester United, but they have been poor in front of goal, while teams have figured out how to deal with Marouane Fellaini in the current system that Van Gaal has been employing which proved so effective against Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester City.

I expect Van Gaal to make slight tweaks to what his side will do on Saturday, but dealing with the counter attack that Crystal Palace have will be far from easy. Manchester United have also looked a little vulnerable when it comes to set pieces and I think this could be quite an entertaining game with both teams going forward to win.

The layers don't fancy seeing many goals, but I do think both will score and neither is likely to settle for a share of the spoils too early. It is a far more appealing price than backing Manchester United at odds on in a difficult stadium and I do think goals will come.


Chelsea v Liverpool Pick: It was virtually twelve months ago when Chelsea looked to have travelled to Anfield with 'nothing to play for' as they were already out of the title race and had a big Champions League Semi Final to come just days later. However, that infuriated Jose Mourinho in the build up that so many had expected his Chelsea to roll over for Liverpool, who were very much in pole position to win the Premier League, and the master tactician oversaw a 0-2 victory.

There isn't a lot for Chelsea to play for this time around either as they have clinched the Premier League title and Liverpool are still fighting for a Champions League spot. Again, don't expect Mourinho to allow his players to coast and I am sure he is reminding them that there is no guarantee of a place in his squad for slackers next season as Chelsea try to build a team that is capable of challenging for the Champions League too.

This game is also being played at Stamford Bridge and the fans will be expecting their side to give Liverpool all they can handle with no love lost between the players nor the fans. Chelsea have been so strong at home all season that they won't want to lose a game in the League now and I think they will come out with something to prove.

Chelsea are also going against a Liverpool team that has struggled in recent weeks to really impose themselves on games and who have looked a little toothless in the final third without Daniel Sturridge. It is going to be a big summer for Liverpool and Brendan Rodgers as the fans are already getting on the manager a little bit having overachieved so much twelve months ago.

Getting into the Champions League would be a huge achievement considering the start Liverpool made to the current campaign, but recent away performances at West Brom and Hull City might have ended any realistic chance of doing that. Liverpool will still play some pretty, passing football, but it will be hard to break down Chelsea and their defence is still a little vulnerable to the speed that Chelsea possess.

I can see this being a close fought game with not a lot between the teams, but Chelsea have found a way to win games they haven't been at their absolute best and they look a big price at odds against to beat Liverpool on Sunday.


Arsenal v Swansea Pick: The freedom that comes for Swansea knowing they are playing well enough to surpass all expectations this season has seen them continue to pick up results despite losing their talismanic forward Wilfried Bony in January. Not many people outside of their dressing room would have thought Swansea could be in the mix for a late Europa League spot, but that is where they find themselves heading to the Emirates Stadium.

Unfortunately for Swansea, they are going up against an Arsenal team with a lot of goals to achieve in the last month of the season including finishing in their highest League position for over a decade and winning silverware in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2005.

Arsenal have really been playing very well over the last couple of months, while they have been particularly impressive at home in the Premier League. Before the game against Chelsea, which saw Jose Mourinho stifle Arsene Wenger's tactics again, Arsenal had won 8 straight Premier League games at home and had been scoring at a very high rate.

They should be able to get on the front foot in this game too and I think it will be difficult for Swansea to contain them, especially as they have been a little loose defensively in recent games. Even a 2-3 win at Newcastle United would raise some questions about them at the back because Newcastle have barely looked like scoring against me with ten of my friends joining me for a kick about.

The way Arsenal have been playing, it isn't hard to envision them scoring at least twice here and that might be enough for them to cover the Asian Handicap and win this game by a couple of goals. Swansea have a style that does make life difficult for Arsenal as they can control possession, and have pace in wide areas, but I think Arsenal will out-gun them in this one and I will back them to win by two or more goals.

MY PICKS: Everton @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Aston Villa-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Hull City @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

May Update5-3, + 6.04 Units (16 Units Staked, + 37.75% Yield)

April Final18-27-1, - 14.29 Units (83 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)
March Final30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15148-189-5, - 9.86 Units (592 Units Staked, - 1.67% Yield)
Season 2013/14164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

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