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Wednesday 17 June 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (June 17th)

Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Kevin Anderson: I really don't know what you could have learned from Stan Wawrinka's straight sets win over Nick Kyrgios, especially as the latter admitted after the match that he simply could not get engaged in the contest. It showed on the court with some really loose player allowing Wawrinka to break serve in each set and then barely get threatened on the return.

I am sure Wawrinka would have expected a lot more from Kyrgios, but I guess injuries and really hurt the Australian. That won't be the case on Wednesday against Kevin Anderson who is a very competent professional that pretty much gives it his all every time he steps on the court.

Anderson may feel he is playing with 'house money' having somehow turned around his First Round match against Lleyton Hewitt- the South African had earned one break point all match before breaking Hewitt when the latter was serving for the set and then going on to dominate the decider.

He has a big serve which should be a huge weapon on the grass, but Anderson's movement is not the best on this surface and that is where Wawrinka should have an edge. Of course we still don't know how Wawrinka is feeling following his French Open exploits as he wasn't challenged by Kyrgios, so that is the one negative I see.

However, I think Wawrinka will be able to get the better of the majority of the rallies which means he should find chances to break the Anderson serve despite how big it is. As long as Wawrinka can serve effectively enough, I like his chances of winning this one 76, 64.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Borna Coric: Many Croatian players on the ATP Tour have taken to grass like a duck to water in recent years, but Borna Coric has not been one of those to this point. In fact Coric had lost all 4 previous matches played on grass before beating Donald Young in the First Round and now takes on Tomas Berdych who is a former Wimbledon Finalist.

This looks to be a really tough game for Coric, but the talented youngster has beaten the likes of Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray in his young career so he won't be overawed. However, Coric is still getting used to the lower bounce that comes with the grass courts and is still developing his serve to earn the kind of cheap points that many of the Croatian players I spoke about above earned in their time.

I think Coric gives Berdych something to think about in the match because he has exceptional ability in the rallies to make some terrific shots. I do also believe that he won't catch Berdych out because he will know of those big wins Coric has already earned over the last twelve months and Berdych plays at a consistent level that his young opponent has yet to reach on a regular basis.

Berdych will need to serve well to give Coric nothing to get excited about and this looks a mismatch on this surface. Strong serving from the Czech player should lead to a fairly routine 63, 64 win.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: Over the years, Ernests Gulbis has generally raised his level when he has met the best players on the Tour even at his worst point of form. This whole 2015 season has been a real disappointment for the Latvian despite his claims that he has been practicing really well, but facing Roger Federer should inspire a performance out of him.

Matches between these two have all needed to go the distance before they have been decided and both players have managed to earn two wins apiece. None of those have come on the grass though and this is a surface that hasn't really worked for Gulbis in the past.

Yes, he does have a couple of big wins on the grass courts at Wimbledon, but Gulbis has had plenty more disappointing losses and you can't argue that this surface should give Federer a big edge. He wasn't at his best in a First Round win over Philipp Kohlschreiber, but the German is much more comfortable on grass than Gulbis and I think Federer can win this one 'easier' than he has in matches against the Latvian in the past.

One of my major concerns about Federer is that he has struggled with his return game on the grass of Halle in recent years and Gulbis does have an effective serve. You do feel that Federer will get chances with a lack of confidence in the Gulbis game, but he has to be more ruthless with those when they come his way to help him earn a 63, 64 win.


Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Michelle Larcher De Brito: I have to wonder how Ana Ivanovic will pick herself up from falling in the French Open Semi Final as I am not sure she will ever have a better chance to win another Grand Slam than at that tournament. The issue will be how much Ivanovic is thinking the same thing as that might mean she suffers some kind of hangover from the defeat to Lucie Safarova, while a first match on grass is always a tough prospect.

Ivanovic will also have to deal with Michelle Larcher De Brito who has come through the qualifiers to make the main draw and then won a match in the First Round too. This is the third straight week that Larcher De Brito will be playing on the grass and she has to use that familiarity to try and rush Ivanovic.

The problem for Larcher De Brito is she has simply not faced an opponent of the level of Ivanovic in the last three weeks and she has had plenty of success on the surface through her career. That makes Larcher De Brito a dangerous opponent in this one, but Ivanovic is the defending Champion here and being back in these surroundings may get a big performance out of her despite the disappointing end to the French Open.

You can't always predict how Ivanovic is going to serve which would be a concern if she is not quite on her game. But I think she has success on the return which helps her come through a tight opening set before pulling away from Larcher De Brito in a 75, 62 win.


Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Sabine Lisicki might have wanted an easier reintroduction to the grass courts she has thrived upon in recent years than the Finalist from Hertogenbosch, but this is still a match I would expect her to win. As well as Belinda Bencic has played the last couple of weeks, she looks to be a player still trying to find her feet on this surface and that is where someone like Lisicki can take advantage.

Of course this is Lisicki's first match back on grass which is a tough change, but she has loved this surface who is a previous winner in Birmingham and Quarter Final and better in her last five appearances at Wimbledon.

Her game really does work well on the grass with the booming serve and heavy forehand hurting opponents, while Lisicki also seems comfortable with her movement on the grass. She won't have it easy against Bencic who should be someone that will improve on grass over the coming years, but Lisicki makes the adjustments to perform on grass immediately and I think that comes through for her here.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if the first set has to go to the tie-breaker, but if Lisicki can win that I can see Bencic perhaps feeling the fatigue of her recent exploits. That might just lead to a 76, 64 kind of win for Lisicki and a place in the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-6, - 2.22 Units (22 Units Staked, - 10.09% Yield)

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