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Friday 26 June 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (June 26th)

The Wimbledon draw is going to be made on Friday morning so my attention will be shifting to that tournament over the weekend.

I will be looking to get the Wimbledon preview with any outright picks out by Saturday and picks from the first day of the tournament to be ready for Sunday so look out for those over the weekend.


Before all that, Eastbourne and Nottingham will be looking to put a full stop on what has been decent tournaments at both venues this week. The tournaments are scheduled to come to an end on Saturday which will ensure the Finalists have ample time to get ready for Wimbledon, although those are only going to be completed as long as the weather continues to play ball as it has for much of the week.


Marcos Baghdatis - 1.5 games v Denis Istomin: This has already been a very good week for Marcos Baghdatis and he might just be catching Denis Istomin at the right time this week. As well as Istomin has done to reach the Semi Final, he had to come through a long Quarter Final with Leonardo Mayer and will also be battling fatigue as well as Baghdatis in the Semi Final.

It hadn't been a great grass court season for Istomin prior to this week with losses to Joao Sousa and Yen-Hsun Lu behind him, but he has had success on grass in the past. In fact this is the second season in a row he has reached the Semi Final in the event prior to Wimbledon and Istomin has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes that should transfer onto the grass.

However, Baghdatis has really turned back the clock this week in his four wins where he is yet to drop a set. The 64, 64 win over Simone Bolelli in the Quarter Final was very impressive from the Cypriot and Baghdatis has always been very comfortable on the grass.

He has served well and continuing to do that will give Baghdatis a real chance to keep the pressure on Istomin and help him break him down. It potentially will need three sets to separate them with the way Istomin has been playing, but I like Baghdatis to win this 63, 46, 64.


Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.5 games v Sam Querrey: It was remarkable watching Sam Querrey somehow get out of the second set with a win against Gilles Simon in the Quarter Final and I do think he is on borrowed time here. Querrey was 15-40 down on serve at 5-5 in the second set having dropped the first, while Simon missed match point by an inch in the tie-breaker before falling away in the final set.

The American has the kind of game that could frustrate Alexandr Dolgopolov, who made much harder work of Yen-Hsun Lu than he should have in his own Quarter Final, although I do think the variation in the Dolgopolov game will be able to extract mistakes from Querrey too.

You can't dismiss Querrey simply for his background on the grass courts as a former winner at Queens and he also has to be respected for the kind of tennis that works well on the grass. Querrey has a big serve and follows that with a heavy forehand and will win plenty of short points if he has his eye in.

The key for Dolgopolov is to force the rally into the fifth/sixth and beyond number of shots where he should have an edge. He has to stop some of the loose mistakes as he won't recover too many leads he hands to Querrey, but I do think Dolgopolov has played the better tennis over the last couple of Rounds.

This is likely to be tight and is another of the Semi Final matches in Nottingham that might need to go the distance, but I think Dolgopolov finds a way to come through with a 67, 76, 64 win.


Sloane Stephens + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: I was surprised with the ease in which Agnieszka Radwanska dismissed the challenge of Tsvetana Pironkova on Thursday and she is a big favourites to progress to the Final. Radwanska has the head to head advantage in this one, is a former Wimbledon Finalist so comfortable on the grass, and has looked to be getting back to her best over the last couple of weeks.

She takes on Sloane Stephens who received a walkover to the Semi Final and is still trying to make her first Final on the Tour so there will be some pressure on her shoulders. However, it has to be said that Stephens has been playing a high level this week, although this represents another step up in class from what she has seen so far.

Stephens has to avoid becoming frustrated by an opponent that will get a lot of balls back in play, but she certainly has the game to win this match outright. Her serve can give her the chance to win cheap points and Stephens has to make sure she hurts the Radwanska serve and make the Pole feel her recent struggles on the court prior to the grass season.

Matches between them have been competitive in sets, but too often Stephens has allowed Radwanska to win an 'easy' set which is a concern for my pick. However, I do think Stephens has the kind of game that should give Radwanska problems on this surface and I will look for her to keep this competitive.


Belinda Bencic + 3.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: She might only be 18 years old, but Belinda Bencic won't want to be taken to school by Caroline Wozniacki in the manner she was in Istanbul last year when she was double bageled. Any concerns that there is a mental issue was removed when Bencic beat Wozniacki at Indian Wells earlier this season and she will be looking to get to another grass court Final this week.

Bencic reached the Final at Hertogenbosch before finding Camila Giorgi a little too hot to handle, but the Italian is a very aggressive player that can take the racquet out of an opponent's hands. The same can be said of Sabine Lisicki on a grass court, as her 27 aces against Bencic proved, but the Swiss teenager will know Wozniacki is unlikely to blast her off the court.

That means there will be some long rallies between two players more known for their accuracy and consistency than their overwhelming power on the court and I think this could be a very entertaining match. Bencic's serve was letting her down at times in her Quarter Final win, but Wozniacki faced the same problem and there could be a number of break points for both women.

Whoever plays the big points best will win, as is the case in most tennis matches, but I do believe this is a competitive contest throughout. Both Bencic and Wozniacki should have their moments and there is every chance we need three sets to separate the players which makes this number of games being offered on Bencic look attractive.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-10, - 5.64 Units (36 Units Staked, - 15.67% Yield)

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