Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (May 14th)

The last major stop before we head to the French Open has begun in Rome and the majority of the First Round is going to be completed in both the ATP and WTA event being played in the Italian capital this week.

It is pretty clear that the men's tournament coming up at the French Open was looking like a procession for Rafael Nadal, but his defeat in Madrid may have just put a little intrigue into that tournament coming up. If Nadal doesn't win the title in Rome that intrigue may actually give the other players more belief they can go on and surprise in Paris.

The women's event looks wide open but I have begun to circle a few names and will be interested to see if the draw works out for them at the French Open. What is clear is that there is not a clear favourite and a number of players will believe they can win the second Grand Slam of the season which begins in under two weeks time.


On Monday I have a number of Tennis Picks from the Rome Masters First Round matches, but I would keep an eye out on the weather. Rain is expected in Rome from early afternoon and that could mean a number of matches are held over until Tuesday in a week that looks like will be affected by rain throughout.

That can be frustrating for players and spectators alike but hopefully the tournament will stay on schedule as we put another big week in the books.

Also note that the conditions in Rome are vastly different to those in Madrid we the ball flies a little more and so this may suit some of the more regular clay court players compared with some of those who went deep into the draw in Madrid last week.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 games v Jared Donaldson: After surprising everyone by reaching the US Open Semi Final last season, Pablo Carreno Busta has struggled with the consistency needed to really push on on the Tour. He has some big points to defend the rest of the 2018 season, but I think Carreno Busta has to be disappointed with some of his returns during the clay court season which should be a key part of the year for him.

The manner of some of the defeats have been really disappointing for Carreno Busta, but he remains a solid clay courter who has perhaps underachieved when you look at the numbers.

Carreno Busta has returned well enough but he has not found the breaks of serve as regularly as previous seasons on the surface and that is despite the percentage of return points being virtually identical to each of the last two seasons. Mentally that can become an issue but it does show that Carreno Busta is perhaps not too far away from putting a run together and the conditions in Rome should be to his liking.

It will certainly feel better to Carreno Busta than it will to Jared Donaldson who, like many players from the United States, is not as his most comfortable on the surface. Donaldson didn't play badly last week in his loss in Madrid to Bautista Agut, but he will have to work harder for his points in the conditions in Rome and this is an arguably tougher opponent on the clay courts.

The American does have some previous of performing well against some of the better Ranked players on the clay courts, but he may be short of confidence at the moment. While Carreno Busta isn't exactly going to be feeling perfect about his own game, I think he will get the better of this First Round match and can cover what is a big number.


Robin Haase - 2.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: The clay courts have usually been where Robin Haase has managed to produce his best tennis, but he has had a poor European clay court swing this time around. Haase is one of those players that can be difficult to trust when you think of backing him, but I am going to take a chance with the Dutchman who looks to have a favourable match up in the First Round against youngster Daniil Medvedev.

The young Russian has beaten Haase in their two previous meetings on the Tour, but both came on the grass courts eleven months ago and that is a surface that should favour Medvedev more than Haase.

However Medvedev has just not looked as secure on the clay courts over the last couple of years and his numbers don't make for great reading. Medvedev has held just under 72% of service games on the clay this season, but the bigger factor may be the poor 17% break record which is putting more pressure on him to make sure he doesn't fall behind in sets.

He may have more opportunities against Haase's serve which has not been at its best on the surface in 2018 and the numbers are considerably down on recent seasons. Where Haase can make up for it is his ability when it comes to breaking serve and I think that is going to give him the edge in what should be a tight First Round match.

Haase can be hard to trust as I have said, but he has been close in some of his losses over the last few weeks and I think he gets the better of this one. It's an interesting spread, but Haase should have a chance to cover even if this match goes the distance and I think he can do that.


Federico Delbonis - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: Federico Delbonis has come through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw at the Rome Masters and he will be confident he can win this First Round match. He won't be underestimating Albert Ramos-Vinolas who is a competent clay court player, but Delbonis has the edge on the head to head and beat the Spaniard comfortably when they played in Estoril on this surface last month.

Delbonis had the edge when it came to the return of serve that day, but he can serve better than he did and he should be able to be put into a position where he can win this match.

Ramos-Vinolas has not played as well as he would have liked on the clay courts in the 2018 season, and his numbers have taken a significant knock over the last month. His service hold is down to 70% from the 77% overall record on the clay courts in 2018 and Ramos-Vinolas is also slightly down on the return of serve numbers which has made it very tough to win matches like he would have expected.

Those numbers don't bode well coming in against Delbonis who knows he can best this opponent and who has won a couple of matches to get into the main draw. While there is room for improvement for Delbonis too, he has the slightly more reliable serve 0V-at the moment and that is allowing him to take chances when it comes to the return of serve.

With that in mind I think Delbonis is able to win this match and I think he can continue his strong run against Ramos-Vinolas and I will look for the Argentinian to win this match and cover the number.


Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Magdalena Rybarikova: This is the second week in a row that Johanna Konta and Magdalena Rybarikova are meeting on the clay courts and it was the British player who got the better of things last week in Madrid. I am going to back Konta to win again this time around having been a deserved winner last time in this match up and continuing her dominance against the Slovakian.

Konta is not as comfortable on the clay courts as the other surfaces but her win over Rybarikova means she has won all six sets competed against her. It also has to be considered that Rybarikova is no more comfortable on the clay courts than Konta and so this is a match that is very much a winnable one for the latter.

The difference between the players is that Konta's serve is slightly more consistent than Rybarikova and that has been the reason she has been able to get the better of this opponent in their previous matches.

The poor performances on the clay courts does make it hard to back Konta who has slipped outside the top 20 of the World Rankings. However Rybarikova's numbers are pretty poor on the surface too even though she does have a solid looking win over Daria Kasatkina during this clay court swing.

It will likely be another battle but Konta can just get the better of the big moments and win this match and cover the number.


Aleksandra Krunic - 4.5 games v Roberta Vinci: Being back in front of the home supporters should give Roberta Vinci a huge boost as she gets set to retire from the Tour this week. It was announced at the end of last year that Vinci would be calling it a day in Rome and there have been clear signs that Vinci has declined significantly as a Singles player at this level.

Playing at home and knowing her final match at any time can be a tough situation to deal with, but other players have surprised in their final tournaments in the past. Vinci will be hoping to become the latest to do that, but her previous experiences facing Aleksandra Krunic does not inspire much confidence.

Krunic has come through a couple of matches in the Qualifiers which should give her some confidence having not won as many matches as she would have liked in recent weeks.

She actually enters the draw as a Lucky Loser but the matches under her belt will give her familiarity with the conditions that could be invaluable for her. Krunic has also dominated Vinci in their previous matches which would have come at a time when the Italian was in much better form overall.

The serve has not been as good for Krunic as she would have liked, but her return game should keep Vinci under pressure. Vinci has lost three of her last four matches and all of those have come by comfortable margins and I think Krunic will be the latest to do that.


Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games v Naomi Osaka: It is great to have Victoria Azarenka back on the Tour and i expect to see a very quick improvement in her World Ranking now she looks to be back on a permanent basis. The only issue with a World Ranking dropping out of the top 100 is the reliance on Wild Cards into the big tournaments (which shouldn't be an issue) and then being given some tough draws.

Last week Azarenka lost a close match in the Second Round against Karolina Pliskova and this week she has to take on talented youngster Naomi Osaka with the winner facing Simona Halep in the Second Round.

I do like Azarenka's chances of being able to do that with her superior play on the clay courts compared with Osaka and I think the defensive skills can also frustrate the young player who is having a very good 2018. Osaka's best performances have come on the hard courts though and she has yet to really get to grips with the clay courts and that is going to make it doubly difficult to beat a player like Azarenka.

Osaka does have some decent wins in 2018 against some of the biggest names out there, but those have not come on this surface. Her numbers are down on the clay courts compared to the rest of the season and I think Azarenka will be a little too good for her.

Azarenka will find the aggressive play of Osaka putting pressure on her own serve, but I think Azarenka will be the superior player whenever the rallies develop beyond the first couple of shots. I expect that to lead Azarenka to a good looking win and setting up a huge match with Simona Halep which will be a lot of fun for the fans later this week.

MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Aleksandra Krunic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 12.64 Units (552 Units Staked, + 2.29% Yield)