Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (May 15th)

The expected rain did not arrive in Rome on Monday and that was good news for the Tennis Picks which have had their best start to a week in at least a month.

While I have managed to turn around some of the weeks in that time, it is a much nicer position to be in when trying to build on a strong start than looking to get back on track in the days ahead.

Tuesday may not see much momentum for the Tennis Picks if the weather forecast is to be expected- in fact the next three days look like they will be filled with rain delays and players being forced to play twice in the same day to get the Singles events back on track.

You don't really know what the weather will do until the day and I am hoping all of the matches can get through, but I won't be holding my breath and Tuesday could potentially be a complete write off.

Even with that in mind, these are the Tennis Picks from the matches that are scheduled for Tuesday.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: You are never quite sure what you are going to get from veteran Fernando Verdasco these days and he has to be pretty disappointed with the way his European clay court season has gone so far. To be fair to Verdasco he has been perhaps a little unfortunate not to have had one or two deeper runs in tournaments with the numbers in a good position but the opportunities not taken as he would have liked.

He opens his challenge in Rome on Tuesday and Verdasco has to be confident he can win a match like this one. The Verdasco serve is working as it once did on the clay courts and significantly better than in 2017 and holding at almost 80% is a big improvement from last season and more in line with his usual numbers on the surface.

One of the reasons Verdasco has not really produced a number of wins on the clay courts in 2018 is that his return numbers are slightly down on previous years. While he is winning virtually the same amount of return points, Verdasco has not been clinical when the break points have come his way and his 28% break percentage is down on each of the past two seasons.

I would expect to see Verdasco create more opportunities against Damir Dzumhur and a serve that can be attacked. It has been a difficult time for Dzumhur who is just 2-5 on the clay courts in 2018 and his 62.5% hold of serve percentage is some way down on previous years as he has found himself under constant pressure.

Dzumhur is a talented player, but his return on the clay courts have not been good enough to make up for his poor service numbers and I think Verdasco can take advantage in this First Round match. The Bosnian has really struggled when facing top 50 Ranked players on the clay courts over the last couple of years and Verdasco should be good enough to keep himself together for long enough to produce a solid win and cover the handicap here.


Lucas Pouille - 1.5 games v Andreas Seppi: This has been a really poor clay court season for Lucas Pouille which is a surprise when you think he won two Davis Cup ties on the surface against Andreas Seppi and Fabio Fognini.

Both of those wins came in Italy and Pouille will be hoping the chance to face Seppi on the clay in the country for a second time in 2018 will give him a chance to put another win on the board.

Pouille absolutely deserved his win over Seppi when they played in the Davis Cup, but he did blow a 2-0 lead in sets before rallying together in the final set and secure the win on the day. Since then he has lost all three matches played on the clay and I think the Frenchman will be disappointed with all of those defeats and his own performances.

One of the main issues for Pouille has been the lack of breaks he has been producing, but he may feel he can create more chances against the Seppi serve even if the latter has shown improvement in that side of his game compared with 2017.

With the home support behind him, Seppi will be looking to use the energy from the crowd to get some revenge on Pouille for the Davis Cup defeat. Both players have very similar numbers, but Seppi has put a few more wins on the board because he is finding a break in 30% of return games compared with Pouille's 25% and that is despite both players winning 40% of return points.

I do think there will be a few breaks of serve in this match but I also feel Pouille has now reached a price where he can be backed. While the performances on the clay courts have been disappointing so far, the win over Seppi gives him a slight mental edge and the numbers show the Frenchman has not been far from a win or two in matches he has lost.

Seppi has had a couple of good runs on the clay, but he has perhaps ridden his luck in those tournaments and I will look for Pouille to win this and cover even if the match needs a deciding set to separate the players.


Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 games v Nicolas Jarry: This is the third time Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Nicolas Jarry will meet on the clay courts in 2018 and the fourth match between these two South American players overall this season.

So far it is Schwartzman who has managed to win all three previous matches and he has been the stronger player in each match. In fact Schwartzman has yet to drop a set, and it is the pressure he has put on Jarry from the return of serve that has proved to be the difference between them on the clay courts. While Schwartzman has held in 80% of his service games, he has broken the Jarry serve on 45% of occasions and it is the break points that have been significantly played better.

Schwartzman has only had two more break points overall in their two matches but he leads Jarry 9-4 in terms of breaks secured. With a serve as vulnerable as Schwartzman's can be it has to be expected that Jarry will get a few more chances to break serve but his return has not quite been up to the standards required at this level.

That could mean it could be more of the same when these players meet in Rome on Tuesday and I am going to look for Schwartzman to get the better of Jarry again. Jarry is a much improved player and winning two Qualifiers will only add to the confidence, but there is still work to be done when it comes to the return of serve as he has broken just 19.5% of times when facing top 50 Ranked players on the clay in 2018.

With the pressure that Schwartzman is likely to be exerting with his own return of serve, it may be tough for Jarry to continue to fight off the break points in tough conditions in Rome where it may be hard to hit through this court against this opponent.

Of course the Schwartzman serve is one that can be hard to trust but even the relatively poorer numbers might be aided by the fact that he is facing someone who has to overcome some mental hurdles in this match up. After a number of breaks, I think Schwartzman can come out on top in this one and I will look for him to continue his personal dominance of Jarry in 2018.


Maria Sharapova - 3.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: The return of Maria Sharapova following a fifteen month ban from the sport has perhaps not gone the way the former World Number 1 would have hoped or even expected. After a year back on the Tour Sharapova is still only Ranked down at World Number 40 but I still think she remains one of the top clay court players out there.

Perhaps the losses to Caroline Garcia and Kiki Bertens on the clay and a pretty average season to this point may have Sharapova going into the French Open 'under rated' but she needs another decent week to back up the three wins she earned in Madrid last week.

I do favour Sharapova significantly in a match up with Ashleigh Barty on the clay courts with the latter not showing a lot of form on the surface. On the face of things Barty has decent numbers on the clay with her first serve being particularly effective, but the second serve will be challenged by Sharapova and the Russian is also a stronger server who can contain the attacking intent of Barty.

It can't be ignored that Barty's numbers take a serious dent on the clay courts when she faces top 50 Ranked players and it is no surprise she has lost her last seven matches to those players on the surface going back to 2014. All of the Barty numbers take a negative move when facing the better players on clay and it is the second serve which becomes really vulnerable while the Barty return is simply not as effective in those situations.

I would expect to see Sharapova putting Barty under pressure on her service games although there is some room for improvement when it comes to the return points won. However this is an opponent who is not at her most comfortable on the clay courts and Sharapova should be too good and continue the form she had begun to display in Madrid.

As a two time former winner of the French Open, Sharapova is clearly a capable player on the clay courts and is perhaps a little under rated in this match.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rome Masters Update: 4-2, + 3.52 Units (12 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)