Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (May 17th)

On a day where I came away with more winning Picks than losing Picks it can be hard to be too disappointed but that was my overall feeling out of the day.

Each day I have compiled a short list of matches before breaking down the numbers and determining whether those matches will make it as one of my Tennis Picks for the day. I saw a number of those players I passed on winning comfortably on Tuesday as they made their way into the Third Round of this last major event prior to the French Open beginning.

That can be a little frustrating, but it would have been a lot worse if I had not come away with a winning record on Wednesday and I will take the positive number for the week being added to.

On Thursday I would be surprised if we don't get at least a break in the play, but it should be another strong day of Tennis with both the ATP Rome and WTA Rome events completing their Third Rounds in the same day.


Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 games v Johanna Konta: It still feels weird to think about Jelena Ostapenko as a Grand Slam Champion and she is going to have a lot of Ranking points to defend at the French Open. So far Ostapenko has not really found the consistency in terms of results on the clay courts, but I think she has been playing well enough to expect better on the surface.

Ostapenko is going to be challenged by Johanna Konta who has won back to back matches here in Rome. The clay courts have not always been the most favourite surface for Konta to play on, but the two wins this week will have given her confidence which makes her a dangerous opponent for the Latvian.

Winning the French Open means Ostapenko is going to be slightly over-rated on the clay courts, but I don't think that is the case in this match.

Compared with 2017, Ostapenko has definitely improved on the serving side of things with superior first serve and second serve points won and she is 4-2 on the surface. Only the loss to Irina-Camelia Begu could be considered a poor one for Ostapenko and there is perhaps some room for improvement when it comes to the return of serve.

If she can do that Ostapenko is going to be another threat at the French Open as she defends her title and I do think she is going to be a little better than Konta in this one. The Konta serve has been a decent weapon for her on the clay courts and she has returned as well as Ostapenko which is going to be make this a very close match.

The difference may be that Ostapenko is much more comfortable on the clay courts than Konta and that could keep her mentally stronger when we reach critical points in the set. She is also serving slightly better and the level of competition Ostapenko has faced has been stronger than Konta's which suggests the numbers being similar has much to do with Konta beating those players she should do.

It may need three sets to separate these players, but Ostapenko can edge this one and cover the number.


Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: The defending Champion in Rome will continue her defence of the title she won twelve months ago when Elina Svitolina takes on Daria Kasatkina in a good looking Third Round match.

Svitolina has been one of the more consistent players on the clay courts over the last few years and there will be plenty of people backing her to win her maiden Grand Slam at the French Open. The numbers have remained pretty similar when it comes to the serve and return impact Svitolina has had in matches over the four seasons.

The results have not come as Svitolina would have liked in 2018 but she has suffered a couple of close losses which can be overturned.

Svitolina will have to be at close to her best level to beat someone like Daria Kasatkina who has shown she is very comfortable on the clay courts and who has won a couple of matches here in Rome in strong fashion. However her numbers do take a serious dent when Kasatkina has played top 50 Ranked players and she struggles a little more to compete with top 20 Ranked players.

This has to be something of a concern for Kasatkina going into a match against an opponent she has lost to in all three previous matches played. One those was in Dubai in the Final back in February and none have been on the clay courts, but Svitolina looks like a player with a little more all around game on this surface.

I think that will help Svitolina reach the Quarter Final in Rome again and I think she can get the better of Kasatkina in a strong win.


Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: Third time is hopefully the charm when backing Maria Sharapova this week who has come through her first two matches with some positive momentum, but who has just made a couple of mistakes which have prevented the cover in matches.

She has deserved both wins against Ashleigh Barty and Dominika Cibulkova, but there is still room for better for Sharapova.

However a big factor in backing her on Thursday in this Third Round match is the fact that opponent Daria Gavrilova played a long match on Wednesday which went deep into the Rome night. The win over Garbine Muguruza saw the Australian hold her nerve at key times, but the match finished close to 3am Rome time and by the time Gavrilova has rested there isn't a lot of time between that finish and this match beginning.

Gavrilova has been struggling on the clay courts in 2018 for any consistency and she has the kind of game that Sharapova will have been used to dealing having played similar players in Barty and Cibulkova. Sharapova will expect Gavrilova to use her speed of movement around the court to try and extract errors by making sure she gets plenty of balls back in play, but it is tough to do that in her current circumstances and fatigue has to wear her down.

The fact her own serve is likely to be put under significant pressure by Sharapova only will increase the mental fatigue and I think the Russian matches her margin of win over Gavrilova when they last played back in 2015. That was also here in Rome and Sharapova deservedly won 7-5, 6-3 that day and I think we will see something similar this time around.

MY PICKS: Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Roma Masters Update: 9-6, + 5 Units (30 Units Staked, + 16.67% Yield)